宏观ABC系列之三：欧盟的过度赤字程序是什么

Group 1: Overview of Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) - The EU has restarted the Excessive Deficit Procedure for Belgium, France, Italy, Malta, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland due to their deficit rates exceeding 4% of GDP in 2023[11] - France's deficit rate reached 5.5% in 2023, an increase of 0.7% from 2022, with projections of slight decreases to 5.3% and 5.0% in 2024 and 2025 respectively[11] - Non-compliance with corrective measures may result in penalties of 0.1% of GDP annually, equating to approximately €2.5 billion for France[11] Group 2: Historical Context and Mechanism - The EDP was established under the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, setting a deficit limit of 3% of GDP and a debt limit of 60% of GDP[3] - The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) of 1997 further detailed these limits and introduced preventive and corrective measures to ensure compliance[3] - The EDP was temporarily suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with plans to resume in 2024 to restore fiscal discipline[3][27] Group 3: Economic Implications - Short-term impacts of EDP may include reduced public spending or increased taxes, potentially leading to economic slowdowns or recessions[3] - Long-term goals of EDP include maintaining fiscal discipline and reducing public debt, contributing to sustainable fiscal health and lower default risks[3] - The EDP's effectiveness has been challenged by uneven economic development among EU member states, with wealthier nations able to stimulate growth through increased spending[4]