市场热点探析：中央汇金持仓特征及指示意义

Group 1 - Since the beginning of 2021, the issuance of equity funds has significantly decreased, contributing less to the market's incremental capital. As of July 2023, the issuance scale of equity funds was only 7.8 billion units, a dramatic decline of 98% compared to January 2021 when 365.2 billion units were issued [1][11] - Since the end of last year, Central Huijin has significantly increased its net purchases of broad-based index ETFs, becoming an important source of incremental capital for the A-share market. As of July 30, 2023, the cumulative net purchase scale of major ETF products exceeded 600 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 index alone accounting for over 470 billion yuan [1][11] - Historical data shows that Central Huijin's A-share holdings exhibit a significant counter-cyclical characteristic, especially during market downturns, where it tends to increase its allocation to stabilize the market and boost investor confidence [1][15] Group 2 - As of the first quarter of 2024, the banking sector accounted for a dominant 87.6% of Central Huijin's holdings, with non-bank financials at 8.3%, indicating a strong focus on the banking sector [2][18] - The performance of the banking sector has shown significant excess returns during periods when Central Huijin increased its holdings, particularly in a declining market [2][18] - The trend of Central Huijin's holdings as a percentage of A-share market capitalization closely aligns with the excess returns of the banking sector, indicating a strong correlation between the two [2][21]