月度策略：稳增长预期增强，市场有望企稳反弹

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.4%, indicating a slight decline and suggesting that the manufacturing sector's economic conditions need improvement [38] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.5%, showing a recovery of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while small and medium enterprises have PMIs of 49.4% and 46.7%, respectively, indicating increased operational pressure [38] - The production PMI is at 50.6%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still in the expansion zone, while the new orders PMI is at 49.3%, reflecting insufficient market demand [38] Group 2 - In the first half of 2024, China's total import and export value reached 21.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with exports growing by 6.9% and imports by 5.2% [39] - The trade surplus expanded by 12% to 3.09 trillion yuan, indicating a strong export performance despite a slight decline in imports [39] - The export growth rate to major trading partners such as ASEAN and the EU shows mixed results, with ASEAN exports increasing by 10.7% while EU exports decreased by 2.6% [39] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June rose by 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.8%, with the decline in PPI narrowing compared to the previous month [40] - The CPI has maintained moderate positive growth over the past five months, and with increased consumer promotion policies, it is expected to rise moderately [40] - The PPI is anticipated to recover as economic conditions stabilize, supported by rising prices in cement and chemical products [40] Group 4 - Retail sales of consumer goods in June totaled 40,732 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, but a month-on-month decline of 1.7% [41] - The retail sales growth rate for non-automotive consumer goods was 3.0%, while automotive retail sales saw a decline of 6.2% year-on-year [41] - The overall retail sales growth for the first half of 2024 was 3.7%, indicating a need for enhanced consumer spending capacity and willingness [41] Group 5 - Fixed asset investment in the first half of 2024 reached 245,391 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, driven mainly by infrastructure and manufacturing investments [43] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.4%, while manufacturing investment increased by 9.5%, although real estate development investment fell by 10.1% [43] - The sales of new residential properties continued to decline, with a 25.0% drop in sales value, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [43] Group 6 - The M2 money supply grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while the M1 money supply decreased by 5%, indicating a shift in financial dynamics [45] - The total social financing scale reached 395.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, reflecting a robust financing environment despite a slowdown in growth rates [45] - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to increasingly focus on interest rate adjustments as a tool for economic management [45] Group 7 - The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, indicating a stable recovery in corporate profitability [46] - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed significantly to profit growth, with a 6.6% increase in profits, accounting for a substantial portion of the overall industrial profit increase [46] - Despite the positive trends, domestic demand remains a constraint on further improvements in corporate profitability [46]