国海证券：投研驱动，重视分红，持续深化财富、资管业务转型

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [2][58]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.188 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.81%. However, in Q1 2024, revenue dropped to 802 million yuan, down 18.85% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 327 million yuan, up 31.18% year-on-year, but fell to 94 million yuan in Q1 2024, a decrease of 58.66% year-on-year [2][58]. - The company has maintained a focus on high-quality development, achieving a total profit of 515 million yuan in 2023, with a consistent dividend distribution to shareholders over the past 13 years, totaling 4.661 billion yuan [2][58]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 4.936 billion, 5.722 billion, and 6.538 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 384 million, 490 million, and 644 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 17.84%, 15.93%, and 14.26% respectively [2][58]. Company Overview - The company, Guohai Securities, is a comprehensive national securities firm established in 1988, with a full range of licenses covering securities, public funds, futures, private equity investment, and alternative investments [3][9]. - As of the end of 2023, the company has established 30 branches and 90 securities business offices across 22 provincial regions in China, employing 3,691 people [3][9]. Business Structure - The main business segments include sales trading and investment, investment management, wealth management, corporate financial services, and others. In 2023, revenues from these segments were 276 million, 907 million, 1.158 billion, 70 million, and 1.787 billion yuan respectively [12]. - The company's revenue sources are primarily from commission and fee income, totaling 1.971 billion yuan, and interest income of 1.452 billion yuan in 2023 [12]. Financial Analysis - The company's total assets as of Q1 2024 were 75.931 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.73%. However, the net assets increased to 22.021 billion yuan, up 16.87% year-on-year [24]. - The company has maintained a capital leverage ratio of 26.18%, which is higher than the industry average, indicating potential for future leverage increases [24]. Major Business Segments - The asset management business reported a revenue of 907 million yuan in 2023, with a focus on enhancing investment research capabilities and achieving a net income of 48 million yuan in Q1 2024, up 24.07% year-on-year [32][38]. - The wealth management segment generated 1.158 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a customer base nearing 3 million and managed assets totaling approximately 270 billion yuan [43]. - The investment banking segment achieved a revenue of 70 million yuan in 2023, with a focus on optimizing project reserves and supporting over 140 billion yuan in financing for government enterprises [49]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to high-quality development and effective risk management, projecting continued growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, thus supporting the "Buy" rating [58].