东海证券晨会纪要

Key Recommendations - Manufacturing PMI slightly declined in July, indicating a need for stronger economic recovery efforts. The manufacturing PMI for July was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and below the 10-year average of 50.4% [6][7] - Domestic tire companies are making progress in catching up with global leaders, with a focus on scale, profitability, brand influence, and globalization strategies. The top three global tire companies hold a combined market share of 39%, while China's leading companies have a market share of 1-2% [8][9] - CME predicts that excavator export growth is expected to turn positive, with domestic sales also showing improvement. July excavator sales are estimated at around 14,000 units, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 11% [10][11] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a slight downturn, with both production and new order indices declining. The production index fell to 50.1%, and the new order index dropped to 49.3% [7] - New export orders showed a slight recovery, indicating stabilization in external demand, while domestic demand remains a significant constraint [7][8] - The cost pressures on enterprises have eased due to a decline in raw material prices, with the raw material price index dropping to 49.9% [7] Tire Industry Insights - Domestic tire companies are in a rapid expansion phase, with significant improvements in return on equity (ROE) for companies like Guizhou Tire and Sailun Tire, indicating high-quality capital investment returns [8][9] - The revenue growth rate for China's leading tire companies in 2023 is projected between 12% and 23%, significantly outperforming overseas competitors [8] - The market share of domestic top three tire companies has increased from 1.14% in 1998 to 5.32% in 2022, showcasing substantial progress [9] Excavator Market Outlook - The domestic excavator market is expected to improve due to policy effects and increased demand from infrastructure investments. The average inventory of domestic dealers has decreased, indicating a positive market sentiment [10][11] - The production of metal cutting machine tools in China has shown positive growth, with a cumulative production of 333,000 units in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year increase [10][11] Policy and Economic Context - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [13] - The recent meeting led by Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence through tangible policy actions [13]