东海证券晨会纪要

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to approximately 0.25% and plans to gradually reduce its monthly government bond purchases from 6 trillion yen to about 3 trillion yen by early 2026, exceeding market expectations [6][7]. - The core inflation rate in Japan was 2.6% year-on-year in June 2024, above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with optimistic projections for core inflation to remain around 2.5% in FY2024 [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates one to two more times in the second half of 2024, but may not sustain this trend into 2025 due to weak economic growth and potential inflation declines [6][7]. Group 2: Company Analysis - CATL (宁德时代) - In H1 2024, CATL reported revenue of 166.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.37% [9][10]. - The company's energy storage revenue grew by 3% year-on-year in H1 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 28.87% [9][10]. - CATL's battery shipments exceeded 205 GWh in H1 2024, maintaining a global market share of approximately 37.5% in the power battery segment, with expectations to ship over 480 GWh in 2024 [9][10]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.5%, indicating a neutral to dovish stance in the July FOMC meeting, which may pave the way for a potential rate cut in September [11][12]. - The Fed's language regarding employment and inflation has softened, suggesting a balance of risks, but it has not ruled out the possibility of not cutting rates [11][12]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September may be overly optimistic, as the stock market has priced in these expectations without adequately considering the potential for economic downturns [11][12].