Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 40.40, indicating a potential upside of 37.2% from the current price of HKD 29.45 [10][2]. Core Insights - The company's oncology/immunology business exceeded expectations in 1H24, with revenue of USD 169 million, despite a year-over-year decline of 53% due to a one-time payment from Takeda in the previous year. The oncology product revenue grew by 59% to USD 128 million, driven by strong sales of furmonertinib in the U.S. market, which reached USD 131 million in 1H24 [1][2]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements have significantly increased the certainty of reaching breakeven by 2025, with operating expenses down 28% in 1H24. R&D expenses decreased by 34% to USD 9.5 million, while sales and administrative expenses fell by 15% [1][2]. - The company expects to maintain its guidance for full-year oncology/immunology revenue between USD 300-400 million, with potential upside based on upcoming milestones in Europe and Japan [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with 2024 expected revenue at USD 641 million, down from a previous estimate of USD 711 million, reflecting a 23.5% year-over-year decline. However, net profit is projected to improve significantly by 2025, reaching USD 37 million [3][6]. - The company’s DCF valuation model indicates an equity value of USD 4.513 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 40.40 for 2025 [5][6]. - The financial outlook shows a gradual recovery, with expected revenue growth of 11.9% in 2025 and 15.7% in 2026, alongside a projected return to profitability by 2025 [3][11].
和黄医药：1H24呋喹替尼海外销售强劲，盈亏平衡路径逐步清晰，上调目标价