2024年海外经济半年度展望：经济进入中后期，降息延迟衰退

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to avoid recession in the second half of 2024, supported by traditional consumption during peak seasons[1] - Bank credit has loosened, which is beneficial for investment recovery, with corporate interest expenses at historical lows relative to Gross Domestic Income (GDI)[1] Labor Market - The labor market shows post-cycle characteristics, with income growth for high and middle-income groups lagging behind low-income groups[1] - Unemployment rates are rising in the latter half of the high inflation cycle, with non-farm payroll data primarily supported by government and healthcare sectors[1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflationary pressures are easing, with core commodity prices declining since June 2022, and overall inflation expected to remain between 2.5% and 3.5%[1] - The Federal Reserve may implement a preventive rate cut of 50-75 basis points, aiming to align policy rates with falling inflation levels[1] Capital Markets - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 3.65%-4.75%[2] - The stock market is currently not facing significant short-term risks, but long-term bubble trends similar to 1997-2000 are emerging[2] Investment Trends - Investment is no longer a drag on GDP, with signs of recovery in non-residential investments and R&D spending[24] - Government spending is increasing due to rising local government revenues, although a slowdown is anticipated next year as pandemic-era fiscal policies expire[24]