美联储7月会议解读：鲍威尔暗示9月降息，市场定价年内降三次

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the eighth consecutive pause[2] - Economic activity continues to expand steadily, with recent indicators showing a cooling labor market and a slight increase in the unemployment rate[2] - Inflation has eased over the past year but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the Fed committed to achieving this goal[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Price Movements - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones increased by 0.24% to 40,842.79 points, the S&P 500 rose by 1.58% to 5,522.3 points, and the Nasdaq surged by 2.64% to 17,599.4 points[4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell below 4.1%, down 70 basis points from April's peak, while the two-year yield dropped below 4.3%[4] - The U.S. dollar index declined to around 104, approximately 2.5% lower than its April high[4] Group 3: Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook - The labor market showed signs of slowing, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 206,000 in June, slightly above the expected 190,000[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, higher than the expected 4.0%, indicating a potential cooling in the labor market[7] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceeds 88%, with a 57% chance of three rate cuts by December[9][10] Group 4: Asset Class Projections - The Fed's potential rate cuts could enhance stock valuations, but risks are accumulating due to current optimistic expectations[11] - Gold prices may rise, with potential to reach $2,500 per ounce, driven by easing monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties[11] - The outlook for commodities remains optimistic in the long term, but short-term volatility is expected as markets await the Fed's rate decisions[11]