1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advisable [11][12]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost. Each commodity has its own specific investment suggestions, including paying attention to callbacks for buying opportunities, short - term observation, and taking corresponding strategies based on price trends and fundamentals [13][23][25]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so be cautious [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, steel product futures declined slightly. Policy changes are the main factor in the short - term, and the mid - term is expected to return to the supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downturn suppresses the price of rebar. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. Policy is the main factor in the short - term. The supply - demand pattern is currently strong but may weaken in the mid - term. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined significantly. The policy has affected supply, and there is still positive support for prices. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon contract rose, and the silicon - iron contract fell. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, production is increasing, and demand recovery is weak. There may be short - term supply surpluses. Consider long positions at low levels after price corrections [18][19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low. The "Double - Putin" talks may lead to European and Ukrainian participation in negotiations, which will put pressure on crude oil. CFTC data shows a bearish sentiment. The price is expected to be weak, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [20][21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil showed a strong upward trend. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased significantly, which supports the price. The strategy is to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Pay attention to opportunities for a rebound after stabilization [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and supply - side disruptions continue. Pay attention to long - position opportunities [28][29]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC declined. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. It is expected to continue bottom - range oscillations [30][31]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the mid - term view is bullish [32][34]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may be adjusted in a range [35]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may be adjusted in a range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol declined. The short - term supply increase may suppress the price, but the demand may improve. Consider trading in a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply is high, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The device maintenance has increased, inventory is stable, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash declined. Supply is increasing, demand is general, and it is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass declined. The production line is stable, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. In the short - term, consider short - positions, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda rose. Supply fluctuates little, and consumption and prices may be under pressure due to the use of imported ores. The market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [45][46]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp declined. Supply contraction expectations dominate the sentiment, but demand improvement is uncertain. There is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The trading logic has shifted, and the mine - permit event is uncertain. Light - position operations are recommended for non - participants [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and copper prices are oscillating. Downstream enterprises purchase as needed. Consider long - position opportunities [51][52][53]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is still tight, and consumption is not optimistic. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply of primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and the consumption is not optimistic. There is pressure on the upper side [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The U.S. soybean's excellent - rate is high, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. Consider taking long - position exits at high levels and then long - positions at support levels [56][57]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, palm oil rose. Malaysian exports have increased, and domestic imports have also increased. Consider holding long - positions lightly [58][59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed - related products' prices changed. The domestic supply of rapeseed products is expected to be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing and holding long - positions [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but short - term reports are positive. Prices are expected to be strong [63][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly. Overseas production is expected to be high, and domestic imports are large before October. It is recommended to observe [66][67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction is falsified, and there is a slight increase in production. It is recommended to observe [69][71][72]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the price of live pigs declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short - term. Consider an anti - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices rose. Egg supply is expected to increase in August, and consumption is not as expected. Consider stopping profit on anti - spreads and then observing [75][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The short - term domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but new - season corn has a high - yield expectation, so it is recommended to observe. Corn starch follows the corn market [77][78][79]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures were flat. Log spot prices are strong, demand is slightly better than arrivals, and short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be supported [80][81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro data in July showed an overall decline, and the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, with greater pressure on nominal GDP than real GDP. [3] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important, long - term, and continuous policy approach. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend, although the process may be tortuous. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Declined Month - on - Month - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3% (down 0.9 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises' was 49.5% (up 0.9 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises' was 46.4% (down 0.9 percentage points). [4] - Among the 5 sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it. [4] 2. CPI was Flat Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 3.6% Year - on - Year in July - In July 2025, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, with a 0.4% month - on - month increase. Food prices decreased while non - food prices increased. [8][9] - The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. [11] 3. Both Exports and Imports Rebounded in July - In July, China's exports increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports increased 4.1% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion, a decrease of $16.53 billion. [14] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN countries, and Japan increased, while the decline in exports to the US narrowed. Exports are likely to remain strong in 2025. [16] 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and M1 and M2 Growth Rates Further Rebounded - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Credit demand from residents and enterprises was insufficient, but the increase in government bond issuance offset it. [18][25] - At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.2%. [23] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth Declined - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, lower than expected. [26] - In 2025, from January to July, the growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all declined. [30] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it was Still at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 4.0% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 6.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. [32] - The inventory of commercial housing decreased slightly. The "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle is emerging, and the drag on the macro economy will significantly narrow. [33][37] 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in July were weak, and the domestic economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. [38] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important long - term policy. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend. [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views - The report is cautious about the trend of Treasury bond futures but optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and recommends considering going long on stock index futures. It also believes that the long - term bull trend of precious metals may continue and suggests going long on gold futures. For other commodities, it provides specific market analyses and corresponding investment strategies [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.36%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan. Given the current macro - economic situation, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, along with the warming market sentiment, make the report optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and recommend considering going long on stock index futures [7][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.13%, and the silver main contract fell 0.15%. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, central bank gold - buying, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull trend of precious metals may continue, and going long on gold futures is recommended [11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, steel product futures fell significantly. Policy currently dominates the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium - term, the price of finished products will return to the supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity suppress the price of steel products. The possible steel industry stability - promoting policy is a potential positive factor. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a significant correction. Policy dominates the market, and the price follows coking coal. The high daily output of molten iron supports the price, but the supply has increased since April. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong but may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply due to the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Fundamentally, the policy on coal production inspection has reduced the supply. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The demand has slightly recovered, but the supply is still high, and the high inventory pressures the market. In the short - term, the supply may be in surplus, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into losses [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. The CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions, the Baker Hughes report showed a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs, and the IEA monthly report raised the supply forecast and lowered the demand forecast. The market focus is on the US - Russia talks, and the short - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil market had multiple sales transactions. The spread of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil turned to a discount, and the expected large - scale inflow of arbitrage fuel oil and the increase in ARA region inventory are bearish factors. It is recommended to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell. The loss has increased, and the supply has decreased. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the market has stabilized. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of a rebound after stabilization [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract fell. The macro - market sentiment has improved, the supply is disturbed by heavy rain, and the cost support has strengthened. The demand has slightly recovered, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pullback [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply - demand situation remains oversupplied, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply has increased, the demand has decreased, and the profit has improved. The social inventory has increased [29]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the market oscillates. In the medium - term, a bullish view is maintained. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from compound fertilizer production is increasing. The enterprise inventory is lower than expected, and the port inventory is higher than expected [30][31]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have adjusted. The supply has slightly increased, and the import has changed. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, the cost and demand support are insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. Interval operations are recommended [32]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply has slightly increased, the demand has slightly improved but with limited space, the cost support from crude oil is weak, and the processing fee has recovered. It is expected to adjust and correct in the short - term, and interval participation is recommended [33][34]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The overall supply has increased, the port inventory has accumulated, but the overseas supply may decrease. The short - term supply increase may suppress the market, and interval participation is recommended, paying attention to inventory and import changes [35]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply remains at a high level, the demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [36][37]. Bottle Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle chip main contract fell. The supply has decreased due to more device overhauls, the demand from the downstream soft - drink industry has increased, and the export has maintained high growth. The market is supported by inventory stability, but the main logic lies in the cost, and it is expected to oscillate with the cost [38]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main contract fell. The production has increased, the inventory has increased slightly, the supply has shown an upward trend, and the downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost support and position control [39]. Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production line is stable, the inventory has increased slightly, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to go short in the short - term and pay attention to inventory and trade conditions [40]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The production has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the profit has improved. The use of imported ore may suppress the consumption and price. The market is expected to return to the spot price stability logic [41][42]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is uncertain. The port inventory is at a high level, which pressures the market. The cost support has increased, but the price rebound space is limited [43][44]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The shutdown of a mining area has raised concerns about mining rights and costs, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The short - term supply impact is limited, and the demand has increased due to the approaching peak season. The trading logic has shifted, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and avoid short - selling against the trend [46]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The shortage of copper concentrate, the Fed rate - cut expectation, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations support the copper price. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract [48][49][50]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is still tight, the market has expectations for the resumption of tin mining in the fourth quarter, the consumption is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the market is in an oversupply pattern. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The USDA report adjusted the soybean planting area, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, the cost has increased, the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is weak. For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at high levels and then entering long positions at support levels; for soybean oil, consider exiting long positions at high levels [53][54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell. The factors include profit - taking, the possible delay of the B50 policy, the decrease in Indian imports, and the increase in Malaysian inventory. The domestic inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions [56][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed fell slightly. The supply of rapeseed in China may be tight due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. It is recommended to reduce long positions [59][60]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton oscillated. The USDA report showed a decrease in US and global cotton production and inventory. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, but the textile export is under pressure. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the short - term report is positive, and the price is expected to be strong [61][62]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and foreign sugar fell. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low but the import is high before October. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. Apple - The previous trading day, the apple futures fell slightly. The expected apple production has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the acquisition price of early - maturing apples has dropped. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68][69]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live - pig price was stable with a slight increase. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the inventory of frozen products has increased, and the cost is low. It is recommended to consider an inverse spread strategy [70][72]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price was stable. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, the supply is expected to increase in August, the consumption is weak, and the profit is low. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 9 - 10 inverse spread [73][74]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract fell. The corn inventory has decreased, the demand is growing slightly, the supply - demand is approaching balance in the short - term, and the price is supported at a low level. The import may increase, and the new - season corn is expected to be abundant. For corn, consider virtual call options for old - season contracts; for corn starch, it follows the corn market [75][76]. Logs - The previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The expected arrival of logs has decreased significantly, the inventory is at a low level, the demand has increased, and the price has risen. The short - term bullish sentiment is supported [77][79].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be put on hold for the time being [26]. - For fuel oil, the main contract should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. - For synthetic rubber, investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. - For natural rubber, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. - Short - fiber is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with costs, and risk control is necessary [45]. - Soda ash is expected to have high - level adjustments in supply, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [46]. - Glass is recommended for short - selling in the short term, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a stable and narrow - range adjustment in price, and the market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Lithium carbonate trading is complex, and it is recommended that non - participants operate with a light position and control risks [53]. - For copper, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][57]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors should consider exiting long positions at high levels and then look for long - position opportunities at support levels [60][61]. - For palm oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [62][64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [65][66]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [70][71]. - Apples are recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [73][75]. - For live pigs, an inverse spread strategy is recommended [76][77]. - For eggs, a 9 - 10 inverse spread strategy is recommended [78][79]. - For corn and starch, the near - month contract of corn has support at low levels, and starch follows the corn market [80][81]. - Logs are expected to have some support for bullish sentiment in the short term [82][84]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan on the day. China's macro - economic data in July showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB deposits was 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. 2. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.02%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.78%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.77% [8]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 777.72, up 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 777.1; the closing price of the silver main contract was 9,300, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 9318. The US Treasury Secretary speculated that the Fed might cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing a new driving force for gold [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 4. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3080 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3240 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3490 - 3500 yuan/ton. Policy changes are the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price of finished products is expected to return to the logic of industrial supply and demand. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor [13][14]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of PB fines at the port was 788 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special fines was 660 yuan/ton. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The daily output of hot metal remains above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import volume of iron ore has increased significantly since April, the import volume and domestic output in the first half of the year decreased year - on - year, and the port inventory is lower than last year. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [16]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures回调 significantly. On Wednesday night, affected by the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The policy of coal production verification has affected the supply, and some coal mines have stopped production, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in coking coal supply [18][19]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. 7. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.65% to 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron closed down 1.02% to 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased, with the port manganese ore inventory rising slightly to 4.49 million tons. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills increased slightly, and the output of ferroalloys continued to rise, but the demand recovery was weak, and the supply was still high. The high inventory of warrants exerts pressure on the spot and futures markets [21]. - After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. 8. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low in recent days. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The Baker Hughes report showed that the total number of US oil and gas rigs decreased by 1. The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast, and it is expected that there will be a record - high oil supply surplus next year [24]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, and geopolitical risks have eased. The IEA monthly report is negative for crude oil prices. The main contract of crude oil should be put on hold for the time being [25][26]. 9. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, and its trend remained weak. The downstream demand in the Asian fuel oil market continued to be weak, and the expected increase in Western arbitrage inflows pressured the low - sulfur fuel oil market. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia was sufficient, and the power plant demand decreased. In the Singapore spot market, the trading was difficult to conclude due to the large gap between buyers' and sellers' quotes [27]. - The main contract of fuel oil should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed down 0.13%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11850 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The supply decreased due to increased losses, the macro - sentiment was positive, and the market stabilized. The price of butadiene oscillated, and the processing of synthetic rubber was in a loss. The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber industry fell to around 68%. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The manufacturer's inventory decreased month - on - month, and the trader's inventory increased month - on - month [29]. - Investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. 11. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.08%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14400 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The macro - market sentiment improved, and there were continued disturbances on the supply side, with the market stabilizing and rising. Heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affected rubber tapping, and the raw material purchase price continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The natural rubber inventory in China decreased this week, with both dark and light rubber inventories falling. It is estimated that Thailand's rubber production will increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons in 2025 [31][32]. - Investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. 12. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down 0.38%, the spot price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The oversupply situation of PVC continued, but the room for further decline was limited, and it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The number of domestic PVC enterprises under maintenance decreased week - on - week, and the supply increased. The operating rates of the main downstream pipe and profile industries continued to decline, and the operating rates of other products were relatively stable. The cost and profit were mainly affected by raw materials. Currently, the raw material price fell, while the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC profit improved. The social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 7.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [34][35]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. 13. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed flat. The price in Linyi, Shandong remained stable at 1720 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. In the short term, the fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. In the medium term, a bullish view was maintained. The supply side saw a slight decline in the overall industry operating rate, but the supply remained at a high level. The main downstream compound fertilizer for autumn was in the production season, and the operating rate increased steadily. The operating rate of melamine decreased slightly. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, lower than expected last week, and the inventory of urea ports was 483,000 tons, higher than expected last week [37][38]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. 14. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell 0.35%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate rose slightly to 82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. Some refineries increased their loads or restarted. In June, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 765,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 34.4%. The international oil price oscillated weakly [39]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. 15. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell 0.55%. The spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.06%. Some PTA plants restarted or reduced their loads, with the PTA operating rate at 76.2%. The operating rate of polyester increased to 88.8%. The profit of PTA processing improved slightly to around 200 yuan/ton [40]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 0.47%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increased by 0.14%. The inventory at the main ports in East China was about 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from August 11 to August 17 was about 141,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was adjusted to 88.8%, and the operating rate of terminal looms was adjusted locally [43]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. 17. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2510 fell 0.22%. The operating rate of short - fiber plants rose to around 90.6%. The sales of polyester yarn improved, and the operating rates of downstream drawing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 70%, 59%, and 65% respectively. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in Jiangsu and

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing insights into their market trends and investment strategies. It suggests different approaches for each market based on current economic conditions, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.31%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The central bank conducted 114.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 12, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan. The Sino - US trade agreement made substantial progress, and the market risk appetite increased significantly [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 0.51%, 0.61%, 0.52%, and 0.31% respectively [8][9]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Three departments jointly issued a personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has recently increased significantly [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors may consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 776.04, with a decline of 0.44%, and the night - session closed at 776.28. The main silver contract closed at 9,187, with a decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closed at 9205 [11]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing new upward momentum for gold [11]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors may consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3120 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3260 - 3380 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3470 - 3480 yuan/ton [13]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Policy changes have become the dominant factor in the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The expected steel industry stability policy may be a positive factor [13]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 788 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 662 yuan/ton [15]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Policy has become the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal prices. The high demand for molten iron supports iron ore prices, but the supply has increased, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern may weaken [15]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [17]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The national energy administration's coal production verification policy has affected supply, causing some mines to shut down and driving up prices [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 0.16%, and the main silicon - iron contract closed at 5820 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [19]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the inventory has risen. The production of ferroalloys has continued to increase, but demand recovery is weak, and there is still oversupply in the short term [19]. - **Investment Strategy**: After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward but was blocked by the moving average group [21]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, with geopolitical risks easing, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [23]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, showing a weak trend [24]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The spread of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil has become negative, indicating an oversupply. The expected increase in Singapore's arbitrage fuel oil and the increase in ARA inventory are negative for prices [25]. - **Investment Strategy**: Shorten the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 0.72%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 12100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Raw material prices have rebounded, but production is still slightly loss - making. The market has declined with overall sentiment, waiting for the market to stabilize [27]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 0.89%, and the 20 - grade rubber contract rose 0.72%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to around 14700 yuan/ton [29]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The macro - market sentiment has cooled, and supply disruptions have temporarily eased. The supply is affected by heavy rainfall, and the cost support has strengthened [29]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities after a decline [29][31]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.88%, and the spot price was raised by 30 yuan/ton [32]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [32]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market will oscillate at the bottom [32][35]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose 0.52%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was lowered to 1720 yuan/ton [36]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, and the market will oscillate. In the medium term, the outlook is bullish [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market will oscillate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [36][37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 0.92%, with a PXN spread of 260 dollars/ton and a PX - MX spread of 120 dollars/ton [38]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The PX load has slightly increased, but the supply - demand situation has weakened in the short term, and the cost and demand support are insufficient [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider range - bound operations and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs and macro - policies [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 0.38%, and the spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton [39]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply has not changed much, demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil has decreased. However, the processing fee is under pressure, and large producers are increasing production cuts [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to risk control [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 0.64% [40]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The overall operating load has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has increased slightly. However, overseas plant maintenance has increased, and imports may decrease [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to changes in port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2510 main contract rose 0.25% [41]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply remains at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate with costs, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2510 main contract rose 0.44% [42]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: There have been more plant overhauls, and inventory has remained stable. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost side [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate with the cost side, and investors should pay attention to risk control [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2601 contract closed at 1409 yuan/ton, up 5.31% [44]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Supply is expected to increase as previous overhauls are restored, and downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure, but there is cost support from coking coal [44]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to position management due to price fluctuations caused by capital games [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1073 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [45]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Production lines are stable, inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [45]. - **Investment Strategy**: Go short in the short term, but be aware of capital - related disturbances before contract roll - over [45]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2502 yuan/ton, up 0.85% [46]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Supply has increased as previous overhauls are restored, and inventory is stable. The market is gradually returning to the logic of stable spot prices [46][47]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided in the text. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [48]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Supply has decreased slightly, and port inventory is decreasing but still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is weak [49]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 2% to 82520 yuan/ton [51]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' mine has raised concerns about mining rights and costs, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. Demand has increased as the consumption season approaches [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is difficult to operate unilaterally. Non - participants should operate with a light position and control risks [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward, breaking through the moving average group. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [53]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: There is a shortage of copper concentrates, and the expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut supports copper prices [54]. - **Investment Strategy**: Go long on the main Shanghai copper contract on pullbacks [54][55]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated, closing at 270690 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [56]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of复产 in the fourth quarter. Consumption is weak, and inventory is decreasing [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton [57]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The price of nickel ore has weakened, and the supply of nickel iron is in surplus. Stainless steel is strong on the futures market but weak in the spot market, and consumption is weak [57]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose 0.72% to 3091 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.90% to 8476 yuan/ton [58]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The USDA report has reduced the US soybean planting area and production. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the cost has increased. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly, while the demand for soybean oil may be suppressed [58][59]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long positions on soybean meal after a pullback and take profit on long positions of soybean oil at high levels [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has risen for three consecutive days [60]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased, but exports have also increased. Indonesia plans to implement a B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Domestic palm oil inventory is high [60][61]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider taking profit on long palm oil positions [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices have fallen, but futures prices have rebounded from the low. The prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil have changed [62]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: China has implemented anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply of rapeseed may be tightened. Global rapeseed production and inventory are expected to change [62]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider taking profit on long positions of rapeseed products [62][63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, and overnight, overseas cotton rose 2.4% [64]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The USDA report has reduced US and global cotton production and inventory estimates. Chinese cotton production is expected to increase, and textile exports are under pressure [64][65]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be strong in the short term [64][65][66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and overnight, overseas raw sugar rose 2.5% for three consecutive days [67]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Brazil's sugar production has increased, and India and Thailand are expected to have good harvests. China's sugar inventory is low, but imports will be high before October [67][68]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to observe the market [67][68]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [70]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The expectation of a production reduction has been disproven, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. The price of early - maturing apples has declined [70][71]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe the market [70][72]. Pigs -

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - driven market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is under consideration [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is recommended [9]. - In the case of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [10]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [12]. - Concerning coking coal and coke, they may continue to show strong performance, and investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [14]. - For ferroalloys, there may be a short - term supply surplus, and long positions can be considered when the spot falls into the loss - making range again [16][18]. - Regarding crude oil, it may run weakly, and the main contract can be put on hold for now [19][20][21]. - For fuel oil, the main contract can be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. - In the case of synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25][26]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to going long opportunities after pullbacks [27][28]. - Regarding PVC, it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [29][30]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term [32]. - In the case of PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [33]. - For PTA, it can be traded within an interval, considering the current situation [34][35]. - Regarding ethylene glycol, interval trading is recommended, focusing on port inventory and import changes [36]. - For short - fiber, it may fluctuate following costs, and risk control is needed [37][38]. - In the case of bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [39]. - For soda ash, supply may remain high, and it is supported by double - coking costs in the short - term [40][41]. - Regarding glass, pay attention to spot trade and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on capacity clearance of old production lines [42]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to be weakly stable, and the market will gradually return to fundamental logic [43][44][45]. - In the case of pulp, it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short - term [46][47]. - For lithium carbonate, it is better for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48]. - Regarding copper, the price may rebound, and the main contract of SHFE copper can be put on hold for now [50][51]. - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate [52]. - Regarding nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [53]. - In the case of soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment, and exit long positions in soybean oil at high levels [54][55][56]. - For palm oil, consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][57]. - Regarding rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long positions in rapeseed - related products [58][59][60]. - For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rebounds [61][62][63]. - Regarding sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68]. - Regarding live pigs, consider reverse arbitrage strategies [68][69][70]. - For eggs, consider holding 9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [71][72]. - Regarding corn and starch, consider virtual call options for old - crop contracts, and corn starch follows the corn market [73][74][75]. - For logs, short - term bullish sentiment may be supported [77][78][79]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - driven market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. Domestic economic growth is stable but lacks momentum. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw a decline in gold and silver futures. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central banks' gold - buying and the expected Fed rate - cut are favorable for gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [9]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Policy changes dominate the market, and the medium - term trend will return to supply - demand logic. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and the steel industry's stability policy may be a positive factor [10]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy changes dominate the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium - term [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a significant increase in coking coal and coke futures. Policy - induced production cuts in some mines are the main reason for the price increase, and they may continue to be strong [14]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw an increase in manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures. The short - term demand has a slight recovery, but supply is still high. There may be a supply surplus in the short - term, and long positions can be considered at low levels [16][17][18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in INE crude oil. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the market focus is on the US - Russia talks. Crude oil may run weakly [19][20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in fuel oil, hitting a multi - day low. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has increased, and the market is bearish on fuel oil prices [23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw an increase in synthetic rubber futures. The raw material price has rebounded, and the market is waiting for a rebound after stabilization [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw an increase in natural rubber futures. The supply is affected by rainfall, and there is support for going long after pullbacks [27]. PVC - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PVC futures. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [29]. Urea - The previous trading day saw a decline in urea futures. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and it is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [32]. PX - The previous trading day saw an increase in PX futures. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, and it may fluctuate and adjust [33]. PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in PTA futures. The short - term supply is stable, demand may weaken, and it can be traded within an interval [34][35]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw an increase in ethylene glycol futures. The port inventory has increased slightly, and it can be traded within an interval, focusing on inventory and imports [36]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw an increase in short - fiber futures. The short - term supply is high, demand has improved, and it may fluctuate following costs [37][38]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in bottle - chip futures. The device maintenance has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [39]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw an increase in soda ash futures. Supply is expected to increase, demand is average, and the price may be supported by double - coking costs in the short - term [40][41]. Glass - The previous trading day saw an increase in glass futures. The production line is stable, inventory de - stocking has slowed down, and attention should be paid to spot trade and de - stocking [42]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw an increase in caustic soda futures. Supply has increased, and the price is expected to be weakly stable. The market will return to fundamental logic [43][44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw an increase in pulp futures. Supply has a marginal decrease, inventory is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw an 8% increase in lithium carbonate futures. The mining suspension in Yichun has raised cost concerns, but the supply - demand surplus remains. It is recommended to operate with a light position [48]. Copper - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in SHFE copper. The Fed's rate - cut expectation supports the copper price, and the main contract can be put on hold [50][51]. Tin - The previous trading day saw an oscillating increase in SHFE tin. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [52]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw an increase in SHFE nickel. The supply is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw a decline in soybean meal and an increase in soybean oil. The soybean crushing volume has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exit long positions in soybean oil at high levels [54][55][56]. Palm Oil - The market has mixed factors, and consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by rainfall. In China, inventory changes vary, and consider long positions in rapeseed - related products [58][59][60]. Cotton - The domestic and international cotton markets have different trends. The global supply - demand is loose, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rebounds [61][62][63]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar markets have different situations. Abroad, production is expected to be high. Domestically, inventory is low but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. Apples - The apple market has a slight increase in production, and it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68]. Live Pigs - The pig price has declined slightly. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and consider reverse arbitrage strategies [68][69][70]. Eggs - The egg price has increased. Supply is expected to increase in August, and consider holding 9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [71][72]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw an increase in corn and a decline in corn starch. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and consider virtual call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74][75]. Logs - The previous trading day saw an increase in log futures. The arrival volume has decreased, and short - term bullish sentiment may be supported [77][78][79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market. Be cautious about the stock index futures, but optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets. Consider going long on gold, and be cautious about other commodities with specific trading strategies for each [6][10][12] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed up. The current macro data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield is low, and the economy is steadily recovering. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so stay cautious [5][6][7] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the asset valuation is low, and the economy has resilience. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to precious metals. The central banks' gold - buying and the Fed's possible rate - cut provide upward impetus. The long - term bull market is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes are currently the dominant factor, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the medium - term, the prices will return to the supply - demand logic. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and the possible steel industry policy is a potential positive factor. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy is the dominant factor, and the price follows coking coal. The high iron - water production supports the price, but the supply has increased, and the inventory is lower than last year. The short - term supply - demand is strong, but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. After the previous sharp fluctuations, the prices are back to the supply - demand logic. The coal production verification policy has affected the supply and pushed up the prices. The futures may continue to be strong. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and the inventory is low. The demand for ferroalloys has a slight rebound, but the supply is still high. The cost has limited downward space. Consider going long on the spot when it falls into the loss - making range [20][21][22] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the market focus shifted to the US - Russia talks. The geopolitical risk eased, leading to the decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the main crude oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly. The ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil price difference turned to a discount, and the high - sulfur fuel oil discount narrowed. The market expects a large amount of arbitrage fuel oil in Singapore, which is negative for the price. Consider shorting the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26][27] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in loss. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment cooled, and the supply - side disturbance slowed down. The price has limited downward space. Consider going long after the price pull - back [30][31] PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. The market will continue to oscillate at the bottom [32][33] Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures declined. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand of urea has weakened recently. It will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to rise in the medium - term [34][35] PX - The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The downward space is limited. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to cost and policies [36] PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply change is small, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The processing fee is under pressure, and the large - scale producers are reducing production. Consider range - bound trading and control risks [37][38] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The domestic coal - based production has high capacity utilization, but the overseas production has more maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. Consider range - bound trading and focus on inventory and imports [39] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction. The price will fluctuate with the cost. Pay attention to cost and policies [40][41] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The recent device maintenance has increased, and the inventory is stable. The price is mainly supported by the cost. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Control risks [42] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda - ash futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The spot price has limited upward momentum. The supply is expected to remain high, but there is cost support from coking coal in the short - term [43][44] Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The downstream demand is weak. The price will be stable. Pay attention to the trading and inventory reduction in the spot market [45] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic - soda futures rose slightly. The supply has increased after the previous device maintenance. The demand from non - aluminum industries is weak, and the price will be weakly stable. The market may shift from tight to loose. Pay attention to production and demand [46][47] Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The supply has a marginal change, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak. The market is in a multi - dimensional contradiction. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [48][49] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose significantly. The mining suspension of Ningde Times has raised the cost and supported the price, but the supply - demand surplus has not been reversed. The trading logic has shifted. It is difficult for one - sided trading. Light - position operation is recommended [50] Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated slightly. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the smelting cost has no further downward space. The Chinese stimulus policy is not effective, but the Fed's possible rate - cut will support the price. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [52][53] Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, but the expectation of production resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still short, and the consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [54] Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures declined slightly. The ore price has weakened, and the port inventory is increasing. The stainless - steel market is under pressure, and the consumption is weak. The refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate [55] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures declined. The US soybean production is expected to be good, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the import cost has increased. Consider going long on soybean meal after the price adjustment and exiting long positions on soybean oil at high prices [56][57][58] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand is expected to be strong in August. Consider going long on palm oil [59][60] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices declined. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed - related products [61][63] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic terminal demand is weak. The new - season production is expected to increase. Wait and see in the short - term and consider shorting on price rebounds [64][66][67] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures declined. The Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, and India and Thailand are expected to have a good harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but the import volume will be high before October. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [68][69][70] Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected apple production reduction has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Consider shorting on price rebounds [70][71][72] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live - pig futures rose. The northern pig price may weaken, and the southern pig price may be stable with narrow fluctuations. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74][75] Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in August, and the consumption is less than expected. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse - spread strategy [76][77][78] Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The US corn supply is abundant, and the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. The consumption is recovering, and the inventory pressure has reduced. Consider buying out - of - money call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [79][80][81] Logs - The previous trading day, log futures declined. The import cost is stable, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand has increased, and the futures market sentiment is strong. The short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be strong [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamental analysis [5][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract unchanged [5]. - The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan on the day [5]. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook. China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy [5]. - China's exports and imports in July increased year - on - year. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend and require caution [6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [7]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. China's gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month in July. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [9]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes currently dominate the market, and prices may return to the industrial supply - demand logic in the medium term. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses rebar prices, while potential steel industry policies may be positive. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [11]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy affects the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but may weaken in the medium term. Technically, it is supported, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose. After previous fluctuations, they are returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. A coal production inspection policy has affected supply, and they may continue to be strong. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [15]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and ferroalloy production is rising while demand is weak, with high inventory. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels [17]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil declined due to the progress of US - Russia negotiations. OPEC+ increased production, and the market is waiting for the September meeting. The US non - farm data was poor, and geopolitical risks decreased. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined, blocked by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and Asian supply is abundant. The market expects more fuel oil arrivals, and the main contract is recommended to short the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [23]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Raw material prices recovered, and the industry's capacity utilization increased. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Supply disturbances slowed down, and the market corrected. The decline space is limited, and long positions can be considered on dips [27]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. Urea - Last trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will fluctuate with the spot, and in the medium term, it is considered bullish [34]. PX - Last trading day, PX fluctuated. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. It may fluctuate, and interval trading is considered [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA fell. Supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. However, due to the pressure on processing fees and increased production cuts by large manufacturers, the downside is supported, and interval trading is considered [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The overall supply is high, but overseas maintenance may reduce imports, and inventory is decreasing. Interval trading is considered, focusing on port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber fell. Supply is high, demand has improved, and it may follow cost fluctuations [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips fell. Raw material prices fluctuate, device maintenance increases, and inventory is stable. The market is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash fell. Production increased this week, and inventory rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term [45]. Glass - Last trading day, glass fell. The number of production lines is stable, and inventory is increasing. The destocking speed slows down, and the downstream demand is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda fell. Production increased after previous maintenance, and inventory rose. The demand for aluminum products provides some support, and the market is returning to the fundamental logic [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. High port inventory and international shipping suppress the market. The demand for household paper is weak, and the supply - demand balance is weak [49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is uncertain due to mining license issues. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high production and consumption improving, but high inventory. It is recommended to observe and control risks [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the domestic smelting cost has no room to decline. The Chinese stimulus policy is not satisfactory, but the Fed rate - cut expectation supports the price. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production may increase in the fourth quarter. The overall supply is still short, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore is weakening, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The low price stimulates demand, and the soybean crushing volume is high. The inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil is rising. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell due to concerns about inventory and production increases and weak export demand. Consider long positions in palm oil [60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rebounded. China's imports of rapeseed decreased in June, while imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. Consider long positions in rapeseed products [62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated, and overseas cotton fell. The global and domestic cotton supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [64]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas sugar fell due to crude oil. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase. China's sugar imports increased in June. It is recommended to observe [67]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production in the new season will increase slightly. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [69]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the summer. Consider reverse - spread strategies [72]. Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was stable in the main production areas and fell in the main sales areas. The production cost is high, and the profit is low. The egg supply is expected to increase in August. Consider reverse - spread strategies [75]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the price has pressure. Consider call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows corn [77]. Logs - Last trading day, logs rose. The import of New Zealand logs is expected to increase, and the price is rising. The demand from downstream factories is increasing, and the short - term market sentiment is bullish [80].