2025 年 10 月 31 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | | 国债: 4 | | | 股指: C ST | | | 贵金属: . C ST | | | 螺纹、热卷: ח ח | | | 铁矿石: ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: ( | | | 铁合金: 1 | | | 原油: 8 | | | 燃料油: 8 | | | 合成橡胶: C | | | 天然橡胶: C | | | PVC: .. | | | 尿素: .. | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: .. 11 | | | PTA: 11 | | | 乙二醇: 12 | | | 短纤: | | | 瓶片: . | | | 碳酸锂: . | | | .. 铜: | | | 锡: .. | | | 镇: .. | | | 更油 豆粕. | 1 F | | 棕榈油： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 16 | | 棉花： ...

美联储内部分歧加大，但可能延续降息路径 ——美联储 10 月会议解读 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 报告时间：2025.10.31 1 一、10 月美联储会议主要看点 北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）以 10 票赞成、 2 票反对的结果将利率下调至 3.75%-4%的区间。这是年内的第二次降息，贴现 利率也同步下调至 4.00%（此前为 4.25%）。除了调整利率，美联储还宣布将 于 12 月 1 日结束量化紧缩。 美联储 FOMC 声明显示，美联储理事米兰再次投了反对票，他希望美联储 更快地降息 50 个基点。堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长施密德与米兰一样持反对 意见，但他更希望美联储维持利率不变。声明指出，宣布自 2025 年 12 月 1 日起结束资产负债表缩减，到期美国国债将全部再投资，抵押贷款支持证券 （MBS）本金偿还将全部用于再投资于短期国债。今年以来通胀有所上升，仍 处于高位"。现有数据显示经济正以"温和速度扩张"，但前景不确定性依然 较高。就业方面的下行风险 ...

2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日本 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: . | | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C T | | 铁矿石: | | 6 | | 焦煤焦炭: | | ( | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | 7 | | 燃料油: | | 8 | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | | C | | 尿素: | | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | .. 10 | | | PTA: 11 | | | | 乙二醇: 11 | | | | 短纤: | | | | 瓶片: . | | | | 碳酸锂: . | | | | 铜: .. | | | | 锡 : .. | | | | 镇: .. | | | | 更油 三肖 · | | 12 | | 棕榈油： | | 15 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, it is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the pricing is relatively full. After taking profit on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the prices may remain weak in the medium term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate [27][28]. - For natural rubber, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [37]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider participating at the bottom [38]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [39][40]. - For ethylene glycol, it may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. - For short - fiber, it may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [47][49]. - For tin, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. - For nickel, it is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [55][56]. - For palm oil, temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. - For cotton, the upside space of the price is expected to be limited [62][63]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [65][66]. - For apples, wait and see [68]. - For live pigs, consider taking short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [71]. - For eggs, continue to hold short positions and pay attention to opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [76]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.32% to 115.400 yuan [5]. - The central bank is studying a one - time personal credit relief policy, and will resume open - market Treasury bond trading. It will also crack down on virtual currency operations [6]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trending market [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.24%, and others had different changes [8]. - The CSRC issued opinions on protecting small and medium - sized investors, including optimizing the IPO pricing mechanism [9]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 934.14 with a decline of 0.42%, and silver rose 0.55% [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Central bank gold purchases and expected Fed rate cuts are positive, but the recent increase is large [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are in a certain range [13]. - In the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand. Demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and supply capacity is still in surplus. The inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - The price of hot - rolled coils may be similar to that of rebar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The PB powder port spot price is 793 yuan/ton [15]. - The daily output of molten iron supports the price. The supply has increased since the second quarter, but the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supportive [15]. - Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the spot purchase price of coke has risen for the second time [17]. - The short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.24% to 5802 yuan/ton, and silicon - iron rose 0.36% to 5564 yuan/ton [19]. - The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. The production is at a high level, and the short - term supply is in excess [19]. - Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated at a high level. The Baker Hughes rig count increased, and India will comply with sanctions on Russia [21]. - Although the rig count increased, it is difficult to increase US crude oil production. Sanctions on Russia and reduced purchases by India and China are positive for oil prices [22]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, imports declined, and exports decreased [24][25]. - The sudden supply shortage in Singapore and sanctions on Russia are positive for fuel oil prices [25]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.43%. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - to - medium term, and the raw material side is bearish [27]. - It is expected to fluctuate [28]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.20%, and 20 - grade rubber rose 0.08%. The supply is affected by weather, and demand and inventory have changed [29][30]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.64%. The supply is in excess, but the downward space may be limited [32]. - Pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract closed flat. The supply has decreased due to more device overhauls, and demand has increased slightly [35]. - The downside space is limited [37]. p - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, the PX main contract rose 1.35%. The PX load increased, and imports decreased. Crude oil prices are supported [38]. - The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust. Consider participating at the bottom [38]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 1.85%. Supply and demand have changed, and the processing fee has decreased [39]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.46%. The overall supply load increased, and inventory decreased. Demand support is limited [41]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract rose 1.33%. The device load decreased, and demand improved [42]. - It may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 1.42%. The load increased slightly, and exports slowed down [45]. - It is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main contract rose 2.53% to 81900 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and consumption in the energy - storage sector is strong [46]. - Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The spot price increased, but downstream consumption意愿 was low after the price increase [47][48]. - The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and positive Sino - US and domestic meetings are positive for copper prices [48]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [49]. Tin - Last trading day, the main contract rose 0.22% to 285580 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and demand shows certain resilience [50]. - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. Nickel - Last trading day, the main contract fell 0.87% to 121260 yuan/ton. Supply concerns have resurfaced, and the market is in an oversupply situation [52][53]. - It is expected to fluctuate [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal fell 0.27% to 2932 yuan/ton, and soybean oil rose 0.59% to 8234 yuan/ton. The soybean crushing volume increased, and inventory decreased [55]. - Consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [56]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell for the second day. Indonesian biodiesel consumption increased, and Malaysian exports decreased slightly. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory increased [57]. - Temporarily wait and see [58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have changed. Inventory has decreased [59]. - Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. Textile exports are relatively stable, and domestic production is expected to increase [61].

增产预期强烈，棉价上方有压力 2025 年 10 月 28 日 研究员：张伟 邮箱：xnqh_zwei@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F3011397 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0012289 1 一、全球棉花供需情况 美国农业部 9 月供需报告显示，预计 2025/26 年度全球棉花产量为 2565 万 吨，环比上调 23 万吨。预计全球消费量环比增长 18 万吨，至 2590 万吨，全 球期末库存为 1594 万吨，环比增加-17 万吨，供需报告中性。 | | 2022/23 2023/24 | | 4月) | (5月) | (5月) | 2024/25 2024/25 (6月) | (7月) | (8月) | (9月) | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 2535 | 2463 | SE3E | 2614 | 2568 | 2550 | 2582 | 2542 | 2565 | 23 | | 消费 | 2456 | 2492 | 2529 | 2541 | 2574 ...

重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 2025 年 10 月 27 日星期一 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 棕榈油： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 16 | | 棉花： | | 17 | | 白糖： | | 18 | | 苹果： | | 19 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 20 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 21 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.25%报 115.010 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 108.005 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.05%报 105.615 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.01%报 102.332 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，10 月 24 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1680 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 1680 亿元，中标量 1680 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and the trend of treasury bond futures is not clear [7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase of the market is large with high volatility. For stock index futures, those who hold long positions can gradually take profits [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of precious metals. However, the recent increase is large, so investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term weakness is difficult to change. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [16]. - Ferroalloys are in a state of short - term oversupply, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [18]. - For crude oil, due to US sanctions on Russia and other factors, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract [20]. - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, and the supply in Singapore is suddenly tight. There are long - position opportunities in the main contract [22]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [25]. - Natural rubber may follow the macro - led market. There are long - position opportunities [27]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on supply - side changes [30]. - The downward space of urea is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [33]. - Short - term PX may fluctuate and adjust with support at the bottom. The market should pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [36]. - Short - term PTA may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - Short - term ethylene glycol may fluctuate with limited downward space. The market should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - term short - fiber may fluctuate following the cost. The market should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost. The market should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, in the pattern of strong supply and demand, the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The market should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract of Shanghai copper due to the non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks [44]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [47]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [49]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see [52]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [58]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [61]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [64]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions [69]. - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 2125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 23, with a net withdrawal of 235 billion yuan on the same day. The treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase is large with high volatility [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends and central bank gold - buying support the price of precious metals, but the recent increase is large [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand supports the price in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium term [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply of ferroalloys is in a short - term oversupply state, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to US sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude oil production is difficult, and the geopolitical situation is beneficial to the price of crude oil [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly following crude oil. The supply in Singapore is suddenly tight, which is beneficial to the price [22]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - side drives the market to stop falling and rebound, but the raw material side is bearish. It is expected to fluctuate [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, it may follow the macro - led market [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on export and supply reduction after the festival [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply has recovered, and the demand has stabilized at a low level [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost - side crude oil rebounds. It may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The short - term processing fee has dropped significantly, and the cost - side crude oil has recovered. It may fluctuate [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increases, the inventory may decrease slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It may fluctuate [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - term supply is at a relatively high level, the demand improves, and it may fluctuate following the cost [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The load has slightly increased, the export growth has slowed down, and it may fluctuate following the cost [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks support the price [44]. Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract rose. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The supply is in an oversupply state, and it is expected to fluctuate [49]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract fell. The market expects the export to improve. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost provides certain support [52]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed closed higher. The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high - level. It is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and rose. The new - season domestic cotton has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the price is expected to be under pressure [58]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar bottomed out and rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply in October is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas rose. The supply in October is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected. It is recommended to continue to hold short positions [69]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum remains weak, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals have seen a large increase recently, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. - The price of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. - There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [26]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - position opportunities [29]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [32]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [34]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44]. - Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [46]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - Palm oil investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. - Cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [58]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [61]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [63]. - For live pigs, consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [66]. - For eggs, consider holding short positions [68]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [72]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 94.7 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent increase in precious metals is large, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The price of rebar is expected to remain weak in the medium term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The supply - demand pattern supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - The previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures rebounded slightly. They are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. Investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to changes in the raw material market and supply [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be oversupplied, and investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [33]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PX changes little, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee of PTA has declined significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investors should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and it is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The export growth rate of bottle chips has slowed down, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost side [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper bottomed out and rebounded. Sino - US tensions have eased, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [45]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin declined. The supply of tin is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose slightly. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned that palm oil fell for three consecutive days. Palm Oil - Palm oil fell for three consecutive days. There are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Similar to palm oil, there are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [55]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton rose, and overseas cotton fell. Sino - US relations may improve, but cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [57]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom, and overseas sugar declined. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and investors should wait and see [59]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The quality of late - maturing apples this year is poor, and investors should wait and see [62]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live pig futures contract rose. The supply in October is expected to increase. Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [64]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices were flat. The egg supply in October is expected to increase year - on - year, and consumption may fall short of expectations. Consider holding short positions [67]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn futures contract fell, and the corn starch futures contract rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, the production in the central - southern region of Brazil enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, significantly reducing the global supply pressure. After the sharp decline of raw sugar, its valuation is moderately low, and the production cost in Brazil is around 15 - 16 cents. Although India and Thailand have strong production - increase expectations, their large - scale crushing will start around December, and the previous sharp decline of raw sugar has more or less reflected this expectation. The raw sugar price is significantly lower than the production costs of these two countries. [23] - Domestically, the expected production will increase slightly, large - scale crushing will start around mid - December, and the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline month - on - month. Overall, the supply pressure is not large. After the futures price drops to a relatively low level, it is significantly lower than the production cost, with strong support below, and the futures may have a phased rebound. [25] Section Summaries Brazil Enters Seasonal Production - Reduction Cycle - Brazil is one of the world's largest sugar producers and the largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4017 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 226 tons, and the sugar - making ratio was 48.14%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season sugar production in Brazil, with the focus on the impact of weather, sugar mill production strategies, and ethanol substitution effects. [2] - Starting from October, Brazil's sugar production enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, greatly reducing the global supply pressure. The latest bi - weekly production data released by UNICA is slightly higher than market expectations. In the second half of September, 4085.5 tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; sugar production was 313.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The cumulative sugar production was 3352.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. [4][5] India and Thailand Expected to Increase Production but Not Yet Started Crushing - **India**: India's sugar production increase expectation is strong. In the 2024/25 crushing season, India's sugar production was about 2590 tons, far lower than expected. ISMA expects the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to be 3490 tons. Considering the 400 - ton ethanol diversion, the actual sugar production will be around 3100 tons, an increase of about 500 tons compared to the previous year. Large - scale crushing will start around late December, and the production cost is around 18 - 19 cents per pound. [7][8] - **Thailand**: Thailand is a major global sugar - producing country and the second - largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production was 1014 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%, ending the two - year consecutive decline. Different institutions predict that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 5% - 14%. [11] Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **New - year domestic sugar production**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making period, domestic sugar production was 1116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 120 tons. Different institutions predict that the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be between 1120 and 1160 tons. Currently, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in the north have started production, with the estimated production at 70 - 75 tons. Large - scale crushing in the south will start in December, and the short - term domestic supply pressure is not large. [14] - **Fourth - quarter sugar imports decline month - on - month**: China's imported sugar is divided into in - quota and out - of - quota. In September 2025, China imported 55 tons of sugar, about 28 tons less than in August, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 316 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. Under the principle of annual total control and considering the decline in shipments from Brazil in September, the arrival volume of domestic sugar in the fourth quarter will decline month - on - month, which is conducive to reducing domestic supply pressure. [16] - **Syrup imports are controlled and the import volume drops significantly**: Since December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder has been suspended, and in March 2025, the import declaration of some sugar products (syrup and premixed powder) from Vietnam has also been suspended. In September 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premixed powder was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be liquidated to take profits [9][10]. - Precious metals have risen significantly. After taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - Iron ore prices are supported in the short - term but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss range [22]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [24]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [28][29]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - For PVC, investors should focus on supply - side changes [35]. - The downside space for urea is limited [38]. - PX may adjust weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should control positions and pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policy shifts [39]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - Ethylene glycol may operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [42]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [45]. - For lithium carbonate, attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors should temporarily wait and see [49]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [53]. - For soybean meal, after adjustment, investors can consider long positions in call options at the lower support range. For soybean oil, investors can temporarily wait and see [56]. - For palm oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [61]. - Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [65]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [69]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [71]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, a reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [73]. - For eggs, short positions should be held [76]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see [79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.85 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. Volatility is expected to increase, and existing long positions can be liquidated [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold purchases support prices. However, the recent increase has been large, and after taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the supply - demand relationship in the industry dominates. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, and inventory pressure has increased. Prices are expected to remain weak, and investors can short - sell at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and sorted. Demand supports prices in the short - term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures significantly corrected. Coking coal supply pressure is not large, and coke prices have started to rise after two rounds of cuts. Futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and investors can buy during pullbacks [18][19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon futures fell, and silicon - iron futures rose. Manganese ore supply has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. Production remains high, and demand is weak. There may be short - term oversupply, and investors can consider long positions at low levels [21][22]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and the global oil market may face an oversupply next year. However, there is support near the integer level, and investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil hit a new low and then rebounded. The Asian fuel oil market is affected by sufficient supply. There are different views on the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil at the end of the year. Investors can widen the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The increase in short - and medium - term maintenance expectations has driven the market to stop falling and rebound. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28][29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The supply in Thailand is affected by rainfall, and demand has recovered. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [30][32]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, attention should be paid to exports and supply reduction [33][35]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures rose slightly. After prices fell below the lowest level at the beginning of the year, there was a small rebound. Supply has increased, and demand has improved slightly. The downward space is limited [36][38]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PX load has decreased, and imports have declined. The short - term supply - demand balance has loosened, and prices may adjust weakly in a volatile manner [39]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures oscillated. Supply has increased, and demand has shown limited improvement. Processing fees have declined, and prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to oil prices [40][41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. Supply has increased, inventory has accumulated, and demand support is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose slightly. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand is average, and cost support is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate following costs [43][44]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures oscillated. Processing fees have increased, supply has risen, and export growth has slowed. Prices are expected to oscillate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. Supply remains at a high level, and demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US relations have eased, and the suspension of production of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Investors should temporarily wait and see [47][49]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [50]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures fell. Concerns about supply have resurfaced, but the market is still in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [53]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The soybean crushing volume has recovered, and inventory pressure remains. For soybean meal, long positions in call options can be considered after adjustment; for soybean oil, wait and see [55][56]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil prices fell. EU policies have changed, and Chinese imports have decreased. Inventory has accumulated. Investors should temporarily wait and see [57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose slightly. Chinese imports have changed, and inventory levels vary. Investors should temporarily wait and see [59][61]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. Sino - US relations may improve, which is beneficial to cotton trade. Domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and prices are expected to remain under pressure [62][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level. Brazilian sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply may be in surplus. Domestic northern regions have started sugar production. Investors should wait and see [66][68][69]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level. This year's apple production has increased slightly, and the quality of late - maturing apples is poor. The opening price is higher than last year. Investors should wait and see [70][71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs rose. Supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. After short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [72][73]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices fell. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and supply is increasing. Consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions should be held [74][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is under pressure, and inventory is increasing. Demand shows a slight increase. It is advisable to wait and see [77][78][79].