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行业比较专刊:上游景气转弱,中游行业有亮点
Huafu Securities·2024-08-02 03:00

Core Insights - Overall, the report indicates a marginal weakening in the economic conditions across upstream, midstream, and downstream industries, although some sectors still show positive signs [1][8] Upstream Industry - Upstream indicators have shown signs of weakening, with chemical indicators mostly flat in July. The WTI oil price has declined, and crude oil inventories have decreased. Cement prices have reached recent highs, while glass prices have fallen. Prices for steel and coal have also seen slight declines [1][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals have shown weak trends, with copper and aluminum futures experiencing a narrowing decline [9][10] Midstream Industry - The midstream manufacturing sector has some bright spots, particularly in electronics, where semiconductor sales have increased. The production and shipment of power batteries have maintained rapid growth [1][8] - The shipping index has adjusted from high levels, and express delivery revenue and business volume have shown marginal weakening. Excavator sales have decreased, while heavy truck sales have also declined [1][8] - The photovoltaic industry is operating at low levels across the entire supply chain [1][8] Downstream Industry - Downstream consumption has shown weakness, with retail sales growth slowing down in June. Home appliance sales have seen a decline, particularly in air conditioning units, despite being higher than the previous two years [1][8] - In the food and beverage sector, the price of Moutai stabilized after a sharp drop in June, but remains relatively low. Fresh milk prices continue to decline [1][8] - In agriculture, meat prices have remained stable, while international grain prices have decreased. In the automotive sector, both passenger and commercial vehicle sales have shown negative year-on-year growth, although new energy vehicle sales have seen a slight increase [1][8] - The real estate market remains sluggish, but with more policies expected to be introduced, there is potential for recovery [1][8] - In consumer electronics, the production of microcomputers has seen a slight increase month-on-month, but a year-on-year decline [1][8]