Guotou Securities·2024-08-02 03:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 38.2 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in exports in July, with a total of 38,000 units sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41%. The overall sales performance in July was in line with expectations, with a total wholesale volume of 91,000 units, down 7% month-on-month and 16% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with a target of 400,000 units in exports for 2024, driven by local production in Brazil and a strong product lineup in various international markets [2][6]. - The introduction of new energy off-road vehicles is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with the Tank series showing strong sales performance [2][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July, the company sold 24,000 new energy vehicles, down 7% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year. The fuel vehicle sales were 67,000 units, also down 7% month-on-month and 16% year-on-year [1]. - The sales breakdown includes 19,000 units for the Tank series, 53,000 units for Haval, and 2,765 units for Wey, with the latter affected by the upcoming launch of the new model [1][2]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits of 130.7 billion CNY, 177.1 billion CNY, and 201.3 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.3, 11.3, and 9.9 [6][7]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 173.2 billion CNY in 2023 to 220.4 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 27.2% [7][9]. Market Strategy - The company is shifting its marketing strategy by enhancing its digital presence and establishing direct sales channels, with over 120 "Great Wall Smart Choice" stores opened in key urban areas [6][2]. - The introduction of new models and marketing adjustments are expected to improve sales performance, particularly for the Haval brand [2][6].