Tebon Securities·2024-08-02 03:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved cumulative sales of over 650,000 vehicles from January to July, with July exports reaching a record high [5] - The company's sales in July were 91,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.9%, while cumulative sales for the first seven months increased by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - The company is steadily advancing its new energy and high-end transformation, with significant sales growth in models priced above 200,000 yuan, which increased by 48.6% year-on-year [5] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with July exports of 38,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41.4% and cumulative exports for the first seven months rising by 58.8% year-on-year [6] - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 at 9.872 billion, 12.615 billion, and 15.850 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 13 times [5] Sales Performance - In July, the sales breakdown by brand showed Haval at 53,000 vehicles (down 15.9% year-on-year), WEY at 3,000 vehicles (down 58.4% year-on-year), and Tank brand at 19,000 vehicles (up 38.5% year-on-year) [5] - Cumulative sales for the first seven months included 353,000 vehicles for Haval (down 0.8% year-on-year), 23,000 for WEY (down 8.8% year-on-year), and 135,000 for Tank (up 87.6% year-on-year) [5] Financial Forecasts - The company's total revenue is projected to reach 173.212 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 229.996 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 327.876 billion yuan by 2026 [8] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 4.1% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2026, with net profit growth rates projected at -15.1% for 2023, followed by 40.6% in 2024 [8] Market Comparison - The company's stock performance has been compared to the CSI 300 index, showing a relative decline in absolute returns over the past months [2][3]