全球热点观察系列（5）：日本加息全球影响探析

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, marking a significant step towards monetary policy normalization after abandoning negative interest rates in March 2024 [13][14] - The Bank of Japan plans to gradually reduce its monthly government bond purchases from 6 trillion yen to approximately 3 trillion yen by the first quarter of 2026, indicating a more hawkish stance in its monetary policy [14][18] - Following the interest rate hike, the Japanese yen strengthened, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping below 150 yen per dollar, leading to significant volatility in global stock markets [13][34] Group 2 - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen from a low of 0.563% in January 2024 to 1.104% in July 2024, while the U.S. 10-year bond yield peaked at 4.7% in April 2024 before declining to below 4% in August 2024 [4][22] - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan has alleviated the pressure on the yen, which had been experiencing rapid depreciation earlier in the year [22][24] - The Japanese stock market, represented by the Nikkei 225 index, saw a significant decline after reaching historical highs in July 2024, with a drop of 3.7% in the month leading up to August 1, 2024 [28][29] Group 3 - The sectors most affected by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike include technology and consumer discretionary industries, with notable declines in stock prices for companies like Toyota and SoftBank [32][34] - The healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities sectors have shown relative resilience compared to the more negatively impacted sectors [32][34] - The report suggests that the Japanese stock market's previous rise was closely linked to aggressive monetary easing policies, and a tightening of these policies could lead to significant market adjustments [34]