Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Deyuan Pharmaceutical (832735 BJ) [1] Core Views - Deyuan Pharmaceutical is a mature pharmaceutical manufacturer focusing on endocrine drugs, especially for chronic diseases like diabetes and hypertension [1] - The company has 20 chemical drug registrations and 2 active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) registrations, with 12 products currently on the market [1] - Diabetes drugs account for 70 41% of revenue in 2023, reaching 499 million yuan, while hypertension drugs contribute 205 million yuan, a 49 62% year-on-year increase [1] - The company's gross margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 81 87% in 2023 and 83 21% in Q1 2024 [1] - Deyuan is pursuing a dual strategy of generic and innovative drugs, aiming to become a leading enterprise in the chronic disease field [1] Business Overview - Deyuan Pharmaceutical specializes in R&D, production, and sales of endocrine treatment drugs, with a comprehensive drug R&D system [11] - The company has 125 R&D personnel, including 2 PhDs and 38 masters, working in a 3,000 square meter research institute [11] - Main products include Pioglitazone Metformin Hydrochloride Tablets, Candesartan Cilexetil Tablets, and Acarbose Tablets [12] - Diabetes drugs generated 499 34 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 70 41% of total revenue [13] - Hypertension drugs, led by Candesartan Cilexetil Tablets, achieved 205 24 million yuan in 2023, with a three-year CAGR of 59 51% [16] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 514 million yuan in 2021 to 709 million yuan in 2023, with a three-year CAGR of 21 33% [22] - Net profit attributable to parent company increased from 78 million yuan in 2021 to 138 million yuan in 2023, with a three-year CAGR of 29 19% [22] - Gross margin improved from 78 21% in 2021 to 81 87% in 2023, reaching 83 21% in Q1 2024 [24] - Net margin increased from 15 16% in 2021 to 19 46% in 2023 [24] Industry Environment - China's pharmaceutical industry is supported by government policies, including drug evaluation and medical insurance reforms [28] - The aging population is driving demand for chronic disease drugs, with the 65+ population reaching 209 78 million in 2022 [32] - Generic drugs dominate China's pharmaceutical market, with the government accelerating consistency evaluation work [35] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow to 798 million yuan in 2024, 881 million yuan in 2025, and 960 million yuan in 2026 [43] - Net profit is projected to reach 181 million yuan in 2024, 223 million yuan in 2025, and 264 million yuan in 2026 [43] - Diabetes drugs are forecast to generate 524 million yuan in 2024, with a 5% growth rate [39] - Hypertension drugs are expected to grow 30% in 2024, reaching 267 million yuan [39]
德源药业首次覆盖报告：深耕慢性病药物，仿制创新双轮驱动公司成长