东方证券：资管特色领跑，业绩弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first rating given [4]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company's performance was under pressure due to market conditions, but it remains a leading comprehensive brokerage firm with asset management characteristics. The company is expected to benefit as a benchmark in wealth and asset management, with valuations at historical lows. The marginal changes indicate that the risks related to stock quality impairment have been cleared, showing signs of recovery since Q1 2024, and the historical burdens are gradually alleviating, suggesting potential elasticity during the market cycle reversal [3][6]. Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive brokerage firm listed in both A and H shares, with a stable performance and leading asset management business. It completed its A and H share listings in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and raised 12.7 billion yuan through A-share placement in April 2022, enhancing its capital strength [4][14]. - The company's shareholding structure is relatively dispersed, with no actual controller, and the management team has extensive industry experience, ensuring sustainable long-term development [4][16]. Performance Overview - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 17.09 billion yuan and 2.75 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year decline of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively. The return on equity (ROE) was 3.45%, down 0.71 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in ROE since 2021 was attributed to simultaneous decreases in return on assets (ROA) and operating leverage, but there has been a recovery in operating leverage since 2023 [4][21][25]. Business Analysis - The company leads the industry in asset management, with its asset management business ranking fifth in the industry. Other business segments are relatively balanced, with brokerage, securities underwriting, and interest income ranking 15th, 7th, and 11th, respectively [4][29][31]. - The asset management business is a core advantage, with two major brands, Dongzheng Asset Management and Huatai Asset Management, contributing significantly to profits. In 2023, the asset management net income was 2.03 billion yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year, but still ranked fifth in the industry [5][33][40]. Development Outlook - The company is positioned as a benchmark in wealth and asset management, with low valuations and a low base effect suggesting potential elasticity in the market cycle reversal. The projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 2.95 billion yuan and 3.27 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23.7 and 21.4 times [6][29].