石油化工行业2024年度中期投资策略：重视高股息主线持续性，关注顺周期复苏节奏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, particularly favoring upstream and oil service companies due to high profitability and ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms [4][7]. Core Insights - The oil and gas industry is expected to maintain high profitability in 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply management, which will likely keep oil prices elevated [4][10]. - The low interest rate environment in China is projected to persist, enhancing the investment appeal of high-dividend stocks, particularly those represented by the "Big Three" oil companies [4][91]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to gradually recover, with a focus on cyclical leaders and high-growth sub-sectors such as refining and coal chemical industries [7][80]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Sector - The geopolitical landscape and OPEC+ supply strategies are expected to support high oil prices in 2024, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $86.86 and $83.44 per barrel respectively as of July 8, 2024, reflecting increases of 11% and 13% since early June [12][10]. - The "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are projected to maintain high dividend yields of 6.4%, 6.2%, and 6.0% respectively, indicating strong long-term investment value [4][96]. Chemical Industry - The refining and chemical fiber sectors are expected to see demand recovery, with leading companies likely benefiting from improved profitability as supply constraints ease [7][80]. - The coal chemical industry is projected to improve profitability due to declining coal prices and increasing demand, supported by national policies promoting modern coal chemical development [7][80]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the ongoing market reforms in the natural gas sector will enhance profitability for major players, with significant growth in natural gas consumption expected, evidenced by an 11% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2024 [58][72]. - The report emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprise reforms, which are expected to enhance the profitability and return capabilities of central state-owned enterprises, particularly in the petrochemical sector [83][87].