Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and gas upstream and oilfield services sectors, driven by high oil prices and ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms [2] - The refining-chemical-fiber industry chain is expected to recover, with a focus on leading companies in the sector [4] - The coal chemical industry is projected to see improved profitability due to declining coal prices and energy transition initiatives [4] Core Views - Oil prices are expected to remain high in 2024 due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply constraints [2][8] - Natural gas demand in China is expected to grow steadily, supported by market reforms and lower import prices [2][40] - State-owned enterprises, particularly the "Big Three" oil companies, are seen as attractive high-dividend investments in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4] Oil and Gas Sector - Crude oil prices are projected to stay elevated, with Brent crude expected to average around 86.86/barrelin2024[8]−Geopoliticalconflictshavereshapedglobaloiltraderoutes,increasingtransportationcostsandsupplychaincomplexities[10]−OPEC+productioncutsareexpectedtograduallyease,withacumulativeincreaseof2.58millionbarrelsperdayfromSeptember2024toSeptember2025[13]−Russiahascommittedtoreducingoilproductionto9millionbarrelsperdayinQ22024tomeetOPEC+commitments[20]−UScrudeoilproductiongrowthhasstalledat13.2millionbarrelsperday,leadingtodownwardrevisionsinnon−OPEC+supplygrowthforecasts[23]NaturalGasSector−China′snaturalgasconsumptiongrew11568.7 billion in 2023, with offshore spending growing 19.7% YoY [71] - The oilfield services market is expected to remain strong, with global energy services market projected to reach $1 trillion by 2025 [76] - Offshore drilling rig utilization rates have been increasing, with semi-submersible platform rates reaching 55% in February 2024 [78]
