2025 年 11 月 6 日 公司研究 FY2025 业绩超预期，高端手机 SoC 需求提升，汽车、IoT 业务收入维持高速增长 ——高通（QCOM.O）FY2025 业绩点评 要点 公司 FY2025 业绩、FY26Q1 指引超预期。美国东部时间 11 月 5 日，高通发布 FY2025（截至 2025 年 9 月 28 日）业绩，盘后股价上涨 3.98%。1）FY2025 业绩超预期：FY2025 公司实现 Non-GAAP 营业收入 441.41 亿美元（彭博一 致预期 436.90 亿美元），同比+13%。分业务看，QCT 业务收入 383.67 亿美 元，同比+16%；QTL 业务收入 55.82 亿美元，同比持平。受《大美丽法案》 影响，预期递延所得税资产无法实现，公司于 FY25Q4 将 57 亿美元计入所得 税费用，FY2025 全年 GAAP 净利润为 55.41 亿美元（VS Non-GAAP 净利润 132.98 亿美元）。FY2025 Non-GAAP EPS 12.03 美元（彭博一致预期 11.92 美元）。2）FY26Q1 指引超预期：公司指引 FY26Q1 实现 Non-GA ...

基于收益率曲线的国债久期轮动策略 ——量化资产配置系列之一 2025年11月6日 作者：祁嫣然 执业证书编号：S0930521070001 张 威 执业证书编号：S0930524070004 证券研究报告 核心观点 预测收益率曲线变动： 我们基于Nelson-Siegel模型构建收益率曲线。该模型的核心思想是利用水平、斜率、曲率三个因子来描 述曲线的动态变化。因此，预测收益率曲线的变动问题，可转化为对上述三个因子的预测。 提升水平因子预测胜率的模型改进： 1 目 录 债券久期轮动 由于传统自回归模型对水平因子的方向预测胜率较低，我们对此进行了改进。通过引入政策利率、市场 基准利率、斜率因子和曲率因子，有效提升了水平因子的方向预测胜率。 久期轮动策略收益稳健且超额显著： 在预测收益率曲线变动的基础上，我们构建了久期轮动策略。回测结果表明，该策略表现良好，能够长 期跑赢比较基准，获得了显著且稳健的超额收益。 策略信号——配置长久期利率债： 截至2025年10月31日，久期轮动策略生成的最新信号为10，表明模型当前看好长久期利率债，建议配置。 风险提示：报告结果均基于历史数据，历史数据存在不被重复验证的可能。 请务 ...

10 月金融数据前瞻： 信贷季节性回落，社融、货币降速 ——流动性观察第 118 期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 行业研究 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 9 月金融数据前瞻：社融增速回落，货币活化延续 ——流动性观察第 117 期 8 月金融数据前瞻： 社融增速或现拐点，存款活化 程度提升——流动性观察第 116 期 7 月金融数据前瞻：社融向上、贷款向下——流动 性观察第 115 期 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？——流动性观 察第 114 期 6 月金融数据前瞻：低基数效应下的季节性修复— —流动性观察第 113 期 7 月流动性：自发宽松——流动性观察第 112 期 5 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 111 期 6 月流动性展望——流动性观察第 110 期 4 月金融数据前瞻及 5 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.903 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.71%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 245 million yuan, up 1.53% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 16.68% year-on-year [1] - The domestic consumer electronics industry continues to benefit from government subsidy policies, showing stable overall performance. Internationally, the export business, particularly in display modules, has seen a short-term surge due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to fluctuations in product structure [1][2] - The company is focusing on AI core applications such as computing cards, servers, and SSD/DDR, while also exploring opportunities in the broader AI market, including AI glasses and robotics, which are expected to contribute to incremental performance [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million yuan, down 1.11% year-on-year but up 10.16% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 17.90%, down 4.30 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.66 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net margin was 8.66%, down 1.92 percentage points year-on-year and stable quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segments - The traditional application markets, including communication terminals and consumer electronics, have shown stable market shares, continuously contributing core profits to the company. The automotive market experienced a brief downturn in Q2 but has seen significant growth due to enhanced product competitiveness and demand from "global south" countries [2] - The company has enhanced its soft magnetic material capabilities through the acquisition of Anke Yuan, improving production efficiency and reducing overall costs [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards to 338 million yuan and 406 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 501 million yuan. The corresponding PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 33X, 27X, and 22X [3][4]

2025 年 11 月 6 日 总量联合行业 "十五五"规划引领，资本市场谱写创新升级新机遇 ——总量联合行业《"十五五"规划建议》解读 要点 坚持以经济建设为中心，坚持高质量发展 10 月 28 日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 （以下简称《建议》）发布。《建议》明确要坚持以经济建设为中心，坚持高质 量发展。"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键 时期，具有承前启后的重要地位。党的二十届四中全会公报中指出，要"坚持以 经济建设为中心，以推动高质量发展为主题，以改革创新为根本动力"，三个坚 定的短语指向在当前错综复杂的国际环境下，当前第一要务依然是实现经济的高 质量发展，争取更大的战略主动。 "十五五"规划建议引领资本长期机遇与开局主线 从宏观角度来看，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区 间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。从产业角度来看，《建议》明确了国 内产业未来五年的重要发展方向，这些方向将是未来资本市场关注的重点，涵盖 传统产业、消费、新兴产业和未来产业等领域。 结构上，建议关注产业结构升级、科技自主创新、内需消费提振三个方 ...

25Q3 营收和盈利同比增长明显，存储和高可靠领域需求向好 ——上海复旦（1385.HK）2025 年三季报业绩点评 要点 事件：公司前三季度实现营收 30.24 亿人民币，同比增长 12.7%；25Q3 实现 营收 11.86 亿人民币，同比增长 33.28%；Q3 营收增长主要系非挥发性存储 芯片、智能电表芯片和 FPGA 及其他芯片业务的销售带动，Q3 收入分别同比 增长 44%/42%/34%，而安全与识别芯片 Q3 营收同比增长 16%。利润端， 前三季度产品综合毛利率 58.47%，同比增长 3.42pct；25Q3 产品综合毛利 率 61.06%，同比增长 8.91pct，系营收增长叠加产品结构优化。前三季度归 母净利润 3.30 亿人民币，同比下降 22.69%，系受到政府补助专项验收和增 值税加计抵减额下降、存储跌价准备增加、无形资产计提减值等的影响。其中 25Q3 归母净利润 1.37 亿人民币，同比增长 72.69%，对应归母净利率 12%。 非挥发性存储器 Q3 营收回暖，公司积极开拓民品应用领域和合作：1）安全 与识别芯片业务 25Q3 实现收入 2.39 亿元，同比增长 16%。金 ...

2025 年 11 月 6 日 总量研究 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多久？ ——解构美国系列第十四篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 减税法案顺利落地，可以对冲关税压力吗？ ——解构美国系列第十三篇（2025-07-04） 近期美债收益率为何再次上行？——解构美 国系列第十二篇（2025-05-16） 特朗普释放和解信号，中国掌握谈判主导权 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十三篇（2025- 04-27） 关税互搏，中美经济韧性谁更强？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十二篇（2025-04-10） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 减税法案或是美国经济预期转折点——解构 美国系列第十一篇（2025-03-26） 美国政府停摆迫近，影响几何？——《大国 博弈》系列第八十篇（2025-03-11） 中美关税第二轮， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [5]. Core Insights - The innovative drug and CXO sectors have shown strong performance, while the medical device sector is expected to continue its recovery [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved revenues of CNY 18,257.4 billion (down 1.97% year-on-year) and a net profit of CNY 1,396.6 billion (down 1.59% year-on-year) [1]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenues of CNY 5,985.4 billion (up 0.78% year-on-year) and a net profit of CNY 405.1 billion (up 7.67% year-on-year) [1]. - The overall gross profit margin for the pharmaceutical sector was 31.4% (down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year) [1]. Summary by Sections Chemical Preparations Sector - In Q3 2025, the chemical preparations sector experienced a revenue decline of 0.82% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.05% [2]. - The growth is attributed to strong performance from leading innovative drug companies and increased sales from BD transactions [2]. Medical Devices Sector - The medical devices sector saw a significant revenue increase of 10.65% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery in domestic bidding [2]. - The medical consumables sector faced challenges with a revenue decline of 0.50% due to policy impacts [2]. Medical Services Sector - The CXO sub-sector showed robust performance with a revenue increase of 10.93% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 47.90% in Q3 2025 [2]. - The hospital sector, however, faced pressure with a revenue decline of 1.19% and a net profit decline of 18.51% [2]. Fund Holdings in Pharmaceuticals - In Q3 2025, the proportion of public fund holdings in pharmaceuticals decreased to 11.93%, down 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The top 20 stocks held by funds primarily include traditional pharmaceuticals, innovative drugs, and CXO sectors [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the innovative drug industry chain and innovative medical devices, highlighting specific companies such as BeiGene, WuXi AppTec, and Mindray Medical [3].

2025 年 11 月 5 日 公司研究 前三季度经营稳健向好，海外业务持续突破 ——新大陆（000997.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 要点 公司披露 2025 年三季报：2025 年前三季度实现营收 62.44 亿元，同比+12.04%； 归母净利润 9.18 亿元，同比+12.15%；扣非归母净利润 9.37 亿元，同比+14.03%。 其中25Q3营收22.24亿元，同比+14.86%，归母净利润3.23亿元，同比+11.75%； 扣非归母净利润 3.38 亿元，同比+29.77%。 海外拓展加速，支付服务交易规模保持逐季度环比增长趋势：1、智能终端板块， 公司加速拓展海外市场销售，在欧美及拉美、中东非等新兴市场取得较大的突破， 2025 年前三季度，公司海外支付设备收入同比增长超 26%。2、商户运营服务 板块，2025 年前三季度，公司支付服务交易总规模达 1.62 万亿，其中 Q3 支付 服务交易总规模近 5,700 亿，同比增长超 18%，自 2024 年三季度以来保持逐季 度环比增长趋势。至 2025 年 9 月底，公司年内推出的 AI 营销产品已有超 15 万 商户试用，公司将持续加码 A ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly less than last year, but the daily average net purchase was not low. The total net purchase in November is likely to exceed that in October [1]. - The scale of the central bank's future bond purchases depends on bond yield changes. The recent decline in interest rates may be due to market trading of the "central bank bond - buying" theme, and bond pricing will eventually return to fundamentals [2]. - There is theoretical downward space for the 10Y Treasury bond yield, but three points need to be noted: the speed of yield decline, the possible change of the "desirable level" over time, and the influence of market internal forces [3]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Is the 20 - billion bond - buying scale small? - On November 4, 2025, the central bank disclosed a net bond purchase of 20 billion yuan in October, much less than last year's monthly 100 - 30 billion yuan. Using the daily average indicator, the daily net purchase was 50 billion yuan from October 28 - 31, and the November total is likely to exceed October's [1]. - The scale of the central bank's future bond purchases depends on bond yield changes. The 20 - billion purchase may not be the main reason for the 5bp decline in the 10Y Treasury bond yield from October 28 - 31, and bond pricing will return to fundamentals [2]. 2. The downward space of bond yields and three points to note - It is reasonable to think that the central bank's restart of bond - buying indicates that the Treasury bond yield in late October was at a desirable level. There is theoretical downward space for the 10Y Treasury bond yield, similar to the level in mid - June [3]. - Three points to note: the speed of yield decline may be more important than the specific level; the "desirable level" may change over time; the downward space is a theoretical maximum from a policy perspective, and market forces often dominate bond yield trends [3].