Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ) with a current price of 28.55 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of 71.97 billion CNY for 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.33 billion CNY, which is an 8.1% increase [4][5]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROE) is 13.11%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4][7]. - The bank's total assets and loans grew by 16.1% and 17.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong expansion [6][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Revenue growth is supported by stable interest income, with net interest income increasing by 10.8% year-on-year [5]. - Non-interest income grew by 0.9%, with net fee and commission income rising by 30.7% [5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - The year-end loan balance increased by over 17%, with corporate loans acting as a stabilizing force [6]. - Total liabilities grew by 16.9% year-on-year, with deposits increasing by 10.3% [6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of over 370% [7]. - The bank has been actively writing off problem assets to manage potential risks [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 4.44 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.81 [8][11]. - The bank's operational strategy focuses on increasing demand deposits and enhancing revenue streams [8].

2026 年 1 月 20 日 储能需求提振预期，2026 年供需格局有望向好。受益于成本端下滑、136 号文 出台后峰谷价差扩大、国内部分省份推出容量电价/容量补偿政策等变化，国内 储能收益率有望提升从而带动需求。根据鑫椤咨询统计，2025 年全球储能锂电 池出货量620Gwh，同比增长77%，预计2026年达到960GWh，同比增长54.8%。 从资本开支角度看，全球主要锂矿企业 2024 年起资本开支出现拐点下滑，对应 2026 及 2027 年新项目或者扩建项目供应增速有望放缓。储能接棒电动车有望 成为锂需求第二成长曲线，2026 年供需格局有望向好。 非洲自主锂矿 II 期已建成投产，自有矿山和包销对原料双重保障。公司目前已 形成自控矿+外购矿的多元化渠道布局，构建了稳定的锂资源保障体系。自控矿 方面，公司在津巴布韦的 Kamativi 锂矿第一和第二阶段项目已于 2024 年全线 建成，目前可以达到年 230 万吨原矿处理能力，产品已陆续运回国内用于生产； 另外，通过参股四川李家沟锂矿获得优先供应权；外购矿方面，公司通过签订长 协等方式获得锂矿包销权，如澳洲 Pilbara、非洲 DMCC、巴西 ...

2026 年 1 月 20 日 25Q4 零售环境疲软叠加天气反复、春节时点错位等影响，与 25Q3 表现相比， 安踏品牌增速自低个位数增长转为轻微下滑，其他品牌增速自 45%+放缓至 35%+，但 Fila 品牌增速环比提升、自低单位数增长提速至中单位数增长。经营 指标方面，安踏/Fila 品牌库存和折扣保持健康水位。 多品牌战略稳步向前，安踏品牌着力出海 公司研究 四季度弱市下零售表现平稳，多品牌、全球化布局坚定推进 ——安踏体育（2020.HK）2025 年四季度零售流水表现点评 要点 事件： 安踏体育公告 2025 年第四季度及全年零售流水情况。2025 年第四季度安踏品 牌/fila 品牌/其他品牌（迪桑特、可隆等）流水分别同比下降低个位数/增长中个 位数/增长 35~40%；全年累计来看，安踏品牌/fila 品牌/其他品牌流水分别同比 增长低个位数/增长中个位数/增长 45~50%，公司全年流水增长达到双位数、全 年表现符合此前指引。 点评： 25Q4 零售环境较疲弱，经营指标保持健康 公司作为领先的多品牌运动集团，旗下多个品牌定位明确、稳步健康拓展。公司 继续强化产品、渠道等多维度综合竞争力，于 ...

2026 年 1 月 20 日 行业研究 M1 M2 增速差已连续三个月回落 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2026.1.12-2026.1.18） 要点 流动性：M1、M2 增速差的负向差值连续三个月扩大至 12 月的-4.7 个百分 点。（1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 12 月值为 47.15，环比上月 -10.19%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 12 月为-4.7 个百分点，环比-1.60 个百分点；（3）本 周伦敦金现价格为 4599 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：1 月上旬重点钢企粗钢日均产量回升至 25 年 10 月中旬附 近水平。（1）本周价格变动：螺纹+1.22%、水泥价格指数-0.94%、橡胶 -1.26%、焦炭+0.00%、焦煤+1.23%、铁矿-0.12%；（2）本周全国高炉产 能利用率、水泥、沥青开工率环比+0.04pct、-1.92pct、+3.7pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、玻璃价格处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃的价格 环比分别+0.00%、-0.73%，钛白粉毛利润为-1707 元/吨，平板 ...

2026 年 1 月 20 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】经济结构向新向优，期待一季度"开门红"——2025 年 12 月经济数据点评 展望 2026 年一季度，考虑到各项稳投资政策前置发力、出口和基建领先指标表现偏 强、"以旧换新"资金提前下发，预计各项经济数据有望反弹，期待经济"开门红"表 现。 【债券】商业银行持续增持利率债——2025 年 12 月份债券托管量数据点评 截至 2025 年 12 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合计为 178.55 万亿元，环比净 增 0.30 万亿元，较 11 月末环比少增 1.18 万亿元。从本月债市各机构对主要券种的 持仓总量来看，配置盘中除信用社减持外均增持债券；交易盘、境外机构均减持债券。 | 外汇市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中间价 | | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.0051 | -0.04 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.1097 | 0.04 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0443 | 0.59 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.8983 | -0.05 | 【债券】2025 年经济前高后低特点 ...

要点 2026 年 1 月 20 日 总量研究 解构日元贬值与日股大涨之谜 ——《海外非美经济探究》系列第五篇 2026 年，日本资产将如何演绎？ 我们认为，日股有望维持高位。关注三个方面：（1）通胀回落、居民实际收入 水平上升，消费板块有望迎来补涨。（2）全球 AI 仍然处在扩张阶段，半导体设 备需求有望进一步释放。（3）财政政策落地，利好人工智能、半导体、造船、 航空航天、军工等板块上涨。 日元上半年或继续承压，下半年日元或有反转的可能性。上半年日本经济基本面 不确定性较高、加息节奏缓慢，2026 年新一轮财政预算审议可能会进一步放大 日债抛售压力，导致日元在低位振荡。但进入下半年，随着美联储进入到密集降 息周期内，美日利差有望收窄，日元也存在小幅升值空间。 核心观点： 2026 年以来（截至 1 月 16 日），日元相对美元贬值 0.9%，而日本股市大涨 7.1%。 为何出现了日本股市上涨，但日元持续贬值的矛盾情景？ 我们认为，日元的走势已无法简单用利差收窄的传统框架来解释，这一轮日元贬 值，受到三个因素的综合性影响：美日利差收窄持续性不强、国际收支结构失衡、 日本经济恢复存在不确定性。但是，日本股市的 ...

Economic Overview - In Q4 2025, GDP growth rate was 4.5%, meeting expectations and achieving an annual growth rate of 5.0%[3] - Q4 GDP growth rate increased slightly from 1.1% in Q3 to 1.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumption and investment contributed 2.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively[6] Consumption Trends - December retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and November's 1.3%[10] - The decline in retail sales growth was influenced by high base effects and diminishing returns from the "trade-in" policy[10] - December saw a significant drop in automotive consumption growth from -8.3% in November to -5.0%[11] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for the year decreased by 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4%[4] - In December, manufacturing investment fell sharply to -9.4%, while real estate investment plummeted to -36.8%[20] - Equipment investment increased by 11.8%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade Performance - Export growth rate fell from 6.5% in Q3 to 3.8% in Q4, influenced by a high base from 2024[5] - December exports remained resilient, indicating potential strength in Q1 2026[5] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment dropped to -36.8% in December, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[30] - The sales volume of commercial housing showed signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in December compared to previous months[28] Infrastructure Investment - Both narrow and broad infrastructure investment saw increased declines, with broad infrastructure down 15.2% in December[25] - The decline in infrastructure investment is attributed to lower PPI and cautious spending amid local government debt issues[25] Future Outlook - Anticipated economic rebound in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies and strong indicators in exports and infrastructure[2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing investment to support economic recovery in 2026[26] Risks - Potential risks include significant downturns in the global economy and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total bond custody increased less on a month - on - month basis. In December 2025, the total bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, and 1.18 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in November [1][11]. - In terms of the bond holder structure, among the allocation portfolios, except for credit cooperatives, all institutions increased their bond holdings; trading portfolios and overseas institutions decreased their bond holdings. Different institutions showed different trends in holding various types of bonds [2][26]. - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repurchase of bonds to be repurchased was 11.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The leverage ratio was 107.14%, up 0.54 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.10 percentage points year - on - year [4][47]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, and 1.18 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in November [1][11]. - By variety, interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased on a net basis month - on - month, while negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased on a net basis. In December 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 124.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.80% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 0.69 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 19.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.73%, with a net increase of 0.02 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.24%, with a net increase of 0.13 trillion yuan; the custody of NCDs was 19.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.03%, with a net decrease of 0.62 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Institution - Among the allocation portfolios, except for credit cooperatives, all institutions increased their bond holdings; trading portfolios and overseas institutions decreased their bond holdings. Specifically, policy banks increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board; commercial banks and securities companies increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds but decreased their holdings of NCDs and credit bonds; non - legal person products increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds but decreased their holdings of NCDs; credit cooperatives and overseas institutions decreased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board [2][26]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Bond Type - The custody of treasury bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Policy banks and commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while non - legal person products continued to decrease their holdings. - The custody of local government bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis, and all major institutions in the bond market increased their holdings. - The custody of policy - based financial bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while policy banks changed to significantly decrease their holdings. - The custody of NCDs continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis. Policy banks changed to increase their holdings, while non - legal person products significantly decreased their holdings. - The custody of enterprise bonds continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis, and all major institutions in the bond market decreased their holdings. - The custody of medium - term notes continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Commercial banks and non - legal person products were the main institutions increasing their holdings. - The custody of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis, and commercial banks were the main institutions decreasing their holdings. - The custody of privately - placed debt instruments changed to a decrease, and commercial banks were the main institutions decreasing their holdings [3][28]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of December 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 69.21%, overseas institutions 5.25%, policy banks 11.61%, non - legal person products 7.72%, securities companies 2.50%, insurance institutions 2.57%, and credit cooperatives 1.13% [33]. - The holder structure of policy - based financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 56.73%, non - legal person products 31.54%, overseas institutions 2.82%, credit cooperatives 3.15%, insurance institutions 1.89%, securities companies 0.93%, and policy banks 2.94% [35]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 71.83%, non - legal person products 9.83%, policy banks 11.81%, insurance institutions 4.92%, securities companies 1.02%, credit cooperatives 0.57%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [37]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal person products accounted for 55.48%, commercial banks 31.29%, securities companies 9.09%, insurance institutions 3.23%, policy banks 0.54%, credit cooperatives 0.28%, and overseas institutions 0.08% [39]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal person products accounted for 60.33%, commercial banks 24.90%, securities companies 4.56%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.67%, policy banks 3.24%, insurance institutions 2.26%, overseas institutions 0.21%, other 0.57%, and credit cooperatives 0.25% [41]. - The holder structure of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills: non - legal person products accounted for 66.21%, commercial banks 26.47%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.97%, securities companies 1.01%, policy banks 2.73%, other 0.29%, insurance institutions 0.14%, credit cooperatives 0.02%, and overseas institutions 0.15% [46]. - The holder structure of NCDs: non - legal person products accounted for 63.66%, commercial banks 22.09%, policy banks 2.22%, credit cooperatives 1.90%, other 4.15%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.09%, securities companies 0.81%, overseas institutions 2.92%, and insurance institutions 0.16% [45]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repurchase of bonds to be repurchased was 11.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The leverage ratio was 107.14%, up 0.54 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.10 percentage points year - on - year [4][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in 2025 showed a significant "high in the front, low in the back" characteristic, with supply stronger than demand and external demand stronger than domestic demand. The GDP growth rate in Q1 was the highest at 5.4%, while that in Q4 dropped to the lowest at 4.5%. The main economic indicators were significantly differentiated, with the GDP deflator remaining negative and the inflation environment showing no obvious improvement [2][8]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of the added value of large - scale industries both increased. However, the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment widened, and the growth rates of its three major sub - items continued to decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods continued to fall, and the month - on - month growth rate was significantly weaker than the seasonal level [2][3]. - In the bond market, for interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened significantly. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on the rise. For convertible bonds, since the beginning of 2026, the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On January 19, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for Q4 and December 2025. The real year - on - year growth rate of GDP in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the real year - on - year growth rate for the whole year was 5%. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to December was 3.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 0.9% [1][7][10]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 Overall Economic Situation in 2025 - The economy showed a "high in the front, low in the back" trend. The industrial production growth rate continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, external demand was strong (export growth rate was 6.1% in 2025), while domestic demand was relatively weak (fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8% and social consumer goods retail sales growth rate was 3.7%). The GDP deflator was negative, and the inflation environment did not improve significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents also continued to decline [8][9]. 3.2.2 Added Value of Large - scale Industries in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in November. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.49%, up from + 0.44% in the previous month. Among the three major sectors, the year - on - year growth rate of the manufacturing industry increased significantly, while those of the mining industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased [15]. 3.2.3 Fixed - Asset Investment in December 2025 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, with the decline expanding. The month - on - month growth rate was - 1.13%, also with an expanding decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased, and the single - month year - on - year growth rates were all weak [20][22]. 3.2.4 Social Consumer Goods in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 0.9%, falling for 7 consecutive months. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.12%, significantly lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024. The growth rate of optional consumption slightly stabilized, while the growth rates of necessities and catering services continued to decline [28]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - Interest - rate bonds: Since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, and the long - end yield has been rising. Given the current loose capital situation and the differentiated fundamental trends, investors should be more optimistic about the bond market. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield in 2026 will be 1.75%. - Convertible bonds: Since the beginning of 2026 (as of January 16), the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but more attention should be paid to the structure [4][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including China Jushi, Conch Cement, and China State Construction, while suggesting "Hold" for others like Puyang Refractories [12]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued an early list of "two heavy" projects for 2026, with a total investment of approximately 295 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 95 billion yuan, indicating a proactive investment approach for 2026 [4][8]. - The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on building a smarter and greener power grid [5][9]. - The report highlights that the construction of key projects such as ultra-high voltage power transmission and pumped storage will be accelerated to support the rapid growth of new energy installations [10]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Early Project List and Investment Plans - The NDRC's early project list for 2026 includes 281 key projects with a focus on urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland, supported by 220 billion yuan for "two heavy" construction and over 750 billion yuan for public sector investments [4][8]. - The report anticipates that the construction investment rhythm will continue to be front-loaded, although year-on-year growth may face pressure due to high base effects from the previous year [4][8]. Section 2: Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides detailed profit forecasts and valuations for various companies, indicating a stable outlook for major players in the construction and building materials sector [12]. - Companies such as China Energy Engineering, China Power Construction, and Suwen Electric Power are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the infrastructure investment boom [10]. Section 3: Weekly Market Review - The report includes a review of the weekly performance of the construction and building materials sectors, noting significant fluctuations in stock prices among various companies [15][23]. - It identifies top gainers and losers in the market, providing insights into the overall market sentiment and sector performance [23][24].