公募REITs扩容至商业不动产，盘活万亿资产加速市场扩容 ——公募REITs动态跟踪报告 分析师：孙伟风 执业证书编号：S0930516110003 分析师：吴钰洁 执业证书编号：S0930523100001 2025年12月3日 证券研究报告 核心观点 1 公募REITs扩展至商业领域。 25年11月28日，证监会发布《中国证监会关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告（征求意见稿）》（以下 简称《商业REITs征求意见稿》），就推出商业不动产投资信托基金（以下简称"商业不动产REITs"）试点征求意见， 12月1日，国家发展改 革委办公厅印发《基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）项目行业范围清单（2025年版）》，行业领域拓展商业办公设施及城市更新设 施项目，同时在消费基础设施中增加体育场馆，商业综合体及四星级及以上酒店项目细分类别。 地产承压时推出，为万亿商办市场提供盘活机遇。海外REITs多在房地产市场承压下行时推出，通过为企业提供稳定的股权融资新途径，起到降 低企业杠杆及优化企业资产结构的作用，推动企业从"重开发"向"重运营"转型。当前我国房地产市场仍呈承压下行态势，在此背景下推出 商业不动 ...

——杰瑞股份（002353.SZ）动态跟踪点评 要点 公司燃气轮机发电机组接连斩获超亿美元订单，进军北美数据中心市场 2025 年 12 月 3 日 公司研究 接连斩获北美数据中心超亿美元订单，电力板块有望打造第三增长曲线 2025 年 11 月 27 日，杰瑞股份公众号发文，公司全资子公司杰瑞敏电能源 集团（以下简称"杰瑞敏电"）与全球 AI 行业巨头正式签署发电机组销售合同， 合同金额超 1 亿美元。2025 年 12 月 2 日，公司公众号再度发文，杰瑞敏电再 度与另一北美客户签署超亿美元发电机组销售合同。公司在北美数据中心领域接 连斩获超亿元订单，标志着公司模块化、智能化的发电解决方案成功挺进北美高 端电力市场，实现了杰瑞在北美数据中心领域的关键业务突破。 从燃气轮机发电机组着手，致力打造全生命周期整体解决方案 公司提供的多台大功率燃气发电机组，将在北美数据中心承担主要电力输出 任务。该机组采用标准化、模块化设计，涵盖发电单元、辅机系统与控制接口的 一体化集成，具备快速运输、现场拼装与灵活扩容的特点，可有效应对项目周期 紧、空间受限等现实挑战。未来，公司将依托自身在能源装备与智能服务领域的 综合优势， ...

2025 年 12 月 3 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【汽车】年底旺季效应趋弱，小鹏首款超级增程车型 X9 上市——新势力 11 月销量跟 踪报告(买入) 11 月新势力交付数据披露，年终各车企购车优惠放大。行业 Beta 承压，建议关注低 估值+业绩兑现、以及机器人主题：整车：推荐蔚来、小鹏汽车，建议关注吉利汽车。 零部件：1）大白马龙头+海外扩张+业绩兑现/高分红：推荐福耀玻璃；2）业绩兑现+ 估值便宜：推荐无锡振华、沪光股份、博俊科技；3）人形机器人：建议关注均胜电 子、双林股份。 【建筑建材】商业航天迎密集催化，关注相关投资机会——建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 半月报（11 月 15 日-11 月 28 日）(买入) 商业航天迎密集催化，关注行业投资机会。商业航天三年行动计划出台，商业航天进 入新一轮高速发展期。国家航天局设立商业航天司。工信部启动卫星物联网业务商用 试验。近期商业航天迎密集催化，建议关注火箭方向：超捷股份、高华科技、中衡设 计等；卫星方向：陕西华达、上海港湾、上海瀚讯、臻镭科技、长光华芯、航天电子、 佳缘科技、上海沪工等。 | | 海外市场 | | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Commercial space is experiencing intensive catalysts, and investment opportunities in the industry are worth attention [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commercial Space Faces Intensive Catalysts, Focus on Industry Investment Opportunities - **Three - year Action Plan for Commercial Space**: On November 25, 2025, the National Space Administration issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027)", aiming to achieve high - quality development of commercial space by 2027, with significant growth in industry scale and innovation [3]. - **Establishment of the Commercial Space Department**: The National Space Administration has recently established the Commercial Space Department, which will promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space industry and benefit the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Satellite Internet of Things Business Commercial Test**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched a two - year commercial test of satellite Internet of Things business, marking the transition of China's satellite Internet industry to the commercial application exploration stage and bringing investment opportunities for the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Recommended Stocks**: In the rocket direction, recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Ltd., Gaohua Technology, Zhongheng Design, etc.; in the satellite direction, recommended stocks include Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Harbor, Shanghai Hanxun, etc. [4]. 3.2 Main Covered Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts, valuations, and ratings for 28 companies from 2024 to 2027, including China National Building Material Group Corporation, Conch Cement, and China State Construction Engineering Corporation. Most of the investment ratings are maintained [13]. 3.3 Weekly Market Review - **Industry Index Performance**: The building and building materials industries showed certain increases this week. The building index increased by 2.43%, and the building materials index increased by 2.21%. Among them, the garden engineering index had the highest increase of 8.40% in the building sub - sectors, and the ceramic index had the highest increase of 5.60% in the building materials sub - sectors [17][19][22]. - **Stock Performance**: In the building materials industry, Hainan Ruizhe had the highest weekly increase of 22.16%, and *ST Lifang had the highest weekly decrease of 30.00%. In the building industry, Guosheng Technology had the highest weekly increase of 57.69%, and *ST Dongyi had the highest weekly decrease of 22.36% [25]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs Performance**: The average weekly increase of infrastructure public REITs was - 0.13%, the average monthly increase was - 1.23%, the average increase since the beginning of the year was 9.67%, the average 250 - day increase was 14.38%, and the average increase since IPO was 13.06% [28]. 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real Estate Data**: It includes new construction, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, and infrastructure investment growth data. For example, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national real estate new construction area continued to decline [31]. - **Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises' New Contract Signing**: The report shows the quarterly new contract signing amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q3 [73]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It includes monthly and cumulative new special bond issuance amounts and replacement special bond issuance amounts from 2022 to 2025 [75][77][79][81]. 3.5 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Cement Data**: It includes national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement - coal price difference index, cement inventory ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [84][85][87][91]. - **Float Glass Data**: It includes glass spot price, glass futures price, and glass inventory [91][92][96]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Data**: It includes glass daily melting volume, soda ash price, 2mm photovoltaic glass price, and photovoltaic glass inventory [98][102][99][104]. - **Glass Fiber Data**: It includes the prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [106][109][110][116]. - **Carbon Fiber Data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, carbon fiber raw silk price, carbon fiber production, carbon fiber inventory, carbon fiber operating rate, carbon fiber gross profit margin, carbon fiber cost, and carbon fiber gross profit [113][117][120][122][124][126][129]. - **Magnesia and Alumina Prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [126][130]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It includes asphalt price, waste paper price, PVC price, HDPE price, etc. [134][137][135][139]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes acrylic acid price, titanium dioxide price, high - machine rental rate, and asphalt average operating rate [141][143][144][146].

2025 年 12 月 2 日 行业研究 年底旺季效应趋弱，小鹏首款超级增程车型 X9 上市 ——新势力 11 月销量跟踪报告 要点 11 月新势力交付数据披露：1）小鹏交付量同比+18.9%/环比 -12.6%至 36,728 辆；2）蔚来交付量同比+147.9%/环比-10.2%至 36,275 辆（NIO 品牌同比 +18.7%/环比+8.9%至 18,393 辆、乐道品牌同比+132.1%/环比-32.0%至 11,794 辆）；3）理想交付量同比-31.9%/环比+4.5%至 33,181 辆。 小鹏首款超级增程车型 X9 上市：11/20 小鹏大七座 MPV X9 超级增程车型正式 上市，上市 1 小时突破 X9 历史全天大定纪录。我们判断，小鹏通过"大电池+ 全域高压平台"打造增程技术差异化，小鹏有望通过陆续推出更多超高性价比的 "一车双能"车型覆盖更多细分市场。 作者 分析师：倪昱婧，CFA 执业证书编号：S0930515090002 021-52523876 niyj@ebscn.com 分析师：邢萍 执业证书编号：S0930525050001 021-52523838 xingping@e ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The employee stock ownership plan demonstrates the company's confidence in long-term development and aims to enhance employee motivation while aligning the interests of shareholders, the company, and employees [2][3] - The company achieved high-quality growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year [3] - The company continues to advance as a high-end beauty group, with a dual business strategy of proprietary and CP brands, focusing on high-end and global expansion [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 4.98 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.53% [5] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 241 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 118.75% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.62 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33, 25, and 19 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is leveraging multi-brand and multi-channel strategies to drive growth, with significant performance improvements noted across various platforms [3] - The report highlights the successful product upgrades and strong sales momentum for key brands, indicating a robust market presence [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed forecast of financial metrics, including revenue, net profit, and EPS for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial health [5][10][12]

2025 年 12 月 2 日 晨会速递 总量研究 2025 年 11 月，共 11 只新股上市，募集金额共计 101.88 亿元，新股发行规模环比 走弱，但单月募资仍维持百亿元水平。网下询价账户数量继续增长，新股认购需求保 持高位。主板和双创板块新股首日平均涨幅分别为 177.8%和 267.7%，初步询价配 售对象分别为主板 9614 家、双创板块 8371 家。5 亿规模账户当月打新收益率约为 A 类：0.14%，B 类 0.14%。 【金工】能繁母猪去化明显，浮法玻璃景气度走弱——金融工程行业景气月报 20251201 根据 11 月行业经营数据，我们预测煤炭、水泥、浮法玻璃、普钢行业利润同比负增 长；燃料型炼化利润同比小幅正增长；能繁母猪存栏去化明显，若能延续数月将进入 中期产能紧缺状态；PMI 与房屋销售数据均走弱，关注基建托底预期。 行业研究 【社服】中国入境游迈向高质量发展阶段，龙头 OTA 与旅行社有望受益——中国入 境旅游产业研究专题报告(买入) 中国入境游市场的规模基数低，发展空间较大;免签政策与文化出海双轮驱动，入境 游迈向黄金发展期;携程作为 OTA 龙头企业，Trip.com 受益 ...

2025 年 12 月 1 日 总量研究 各类行业主题基金净值上涨，被动资金减仓股票型 ETF ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20251201 要点 ETF 市场跟踪：本周股票型 ETF 资金大幅流出，主要减仓方向为 TMT、中 小盘、创业板主题 ETF，大盘、消费主题 ETF 受到资金加仓。 股票型 ETF 本周收益中位数为 2.45%，资金净流出 405.64 亿元。港股 ETF 本周收益中位数为 3.28%，资金净流入 31.02 亿元。跨境 ETF 本周收益中位 数为 3.22%，资金净流入 2.79 亿元。商品型 ETF 本周收益中位数为 2.55%，资金净流入 19.27 亿元。 宽基 ETF 方面，本周大盘主题 ETF 资金净流入明显，合计流入 14.11 亿元。 行业 ETF 方面，本周消费主题 ETF 资金净流入明显，合计流入 8.15 亿元。 基金仓位高频监控：主动偏股基金仓位高频估测结果显示本周主动偏股基金 仓位相较上周下降 0.11pcts。从行业配置动向看，家用电器、电子、食品饮 料等行业获资金增配，医药生物、银行、通信等行业遭资金减持。 ESG 金融产品跟踪：本周新发行绿色债券 ...

- The "Market Sentiment Tracking" system includes the "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator," which calculates the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the past N days within the CSI 300 Index. This indicator helps identify market sentiment by detecting market bottoms when the proportion increases and potential overheating when the proportion is high. However, it has limitations in avoiding market downturns and may miss gains during sustained market rallies[12][13][15] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" applies two smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the sentiment indicator. When the short-term smoothed line exceeds the long-term smoothed line, it signals a bullish market view. Conversely, when the short-term line falls below the long-term line, it indicates a cautious market outlook[13][15][16] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses an eight-moving-average system (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the CSI 300 Index's trend. The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the moving average range, correlating with the index's performance. A bullish signal is generated when the current price exceeds the moving average values for more than five of the eight averages[21][26] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" is based on the PB-ROE pricing model and incorporates factors like SUE and ROE growth to identify stocks with expectation gaps. The strategy selects 50 stocks to form a portfolio, aiming to enhance returns by leveraging expectation differences and additional alpha factors[30][33][34] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" includes "Public Fund Research Stock Selection" and "Private Fund Research Tracking." These strategies utilize institutional research data, such as the number of times a company is researched and its pre-research performance relative to benchmarks, to identify alpha opportunities[37][39][40] - The "Leverage Ratio Negative List" introduces three leverage ratio metrics: traditional, strict, and relaxed. The relaxed leverage ratio includes additional liabilities like other current liabilities and non-current liabilities due within one year, providing more opportunities for short-selling gains compared to traditional metrics[42][43][45] - The "Financial Cost Burden Ratio" measures a company's interest payment pressure using the formula: Financial Cost Burden Ratio = Interest Expense / EBIT. This metric focuses on interest expenses post-2018, offering a clearer view of financial costs and identifying companies with high repayment pressure[46][47][48] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator" showed a slight month-on-month decline as of November 28, 2025, with a value above 50%, indicating cooling market sentiment[12] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" indicated a cautious market view as the short-term smoothed line was below the long-term smoothed line in the past month[16] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" suggested the CSI 300 Index was in a non-prosperous sentiment zone as of November 28, 2025[21] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" delivered negative excess returns in November 2025: -0.08% for the CSI 500 pool, -1.09% for the CSI 800 pool, and -3.26% for the entire market pool[30][34] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" showed mixed results in November 2025: the "Public Fund Research Stock Selection" achieved a 3.49% excess return relative to the CSI 800, while the "Private Fund Research Tracking" recorded a -1.36% excess return relative to the CSI 800[37][39]

2025 年 12 月 1 日 行业研究 中国入境游迈向黄金发展期，龙头 OTA 与旅行社有望受益 ——中国入境游产业研究专题报告 要点 中国入境游市场的规模基数低，发展空间较大：中国入境游虽起步较早，但是在 长期发展过程中，其增速逐渐滞后于国内游与出境游，对 GDP 的贡献度亦相对 有限。目前，韩、日、俄构成中国的近程核心客源国，美国为远程重要客源国， 德国、澳大利亚等新兴市场有待加强拓展，中国占这些国家出境游市场的份额均 有较大的提升空间。近年来，入境游政策放开后，中国入境游人次与收入均呈现 快速增长趋势。 免签政策与文化出海双轮驱动，入境游迈向黄金发展期：中国入境游市场的增长 动能主要来自两方面：1）免签政策红利释放，我们通过分析海南案例，发现免 签政策对海南省的入境游客流量具有显著的提振效应；2）中国传统文化与潮流 文化加速出海，"以文促旅、以旅彰文" 的文旅融合良性循环已现雏形，中国 在全球范围内的吸引力逐渐增强。自 23 年以来，中国入境游市场实现快速增长， 增长态势有望延续，入境游发展的黄金时代逐渐来临。 携程作为 OTA 龙头企业，Trip.com 受益于入境游红利加速增长：携程旗下的 Tri ...