2026 年 2 月 24 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】春节假期海外大事一览——假期海外事件点评 春节期间，海外局势出现多番变化，我们重点关注三个事件。1.中东局势高度紧张， 地缘风险溢价推升国际油价大幅上涨。2.美国最高法院裁定特朗普 IEEPA 关税违法。 3.美国通胀数据超预期、经济数据不弱，美联储官员分歧加剧，短期市场降息预期更 纠结。总体来看春节假期期间海外地缘局势动荡，大宗商品价格波动，海外权益市场 多数上涨，但美国较强通胀和经济数据对降息预期带来掣肘。 【宏观】美国通胀放缓，对降息掣肘减弱——2026 年 1 月美国 CPI 数据点评 1 月受食品、汽油价格下跌影响，美国 CPI 同比增速迎来超预期回落。从年初企业重 新定价来看，关税传导仍在持续但强度不大，且二手车价格下跌抵消了这一影响。近 期特朗普计划降低部分关税税率，将进一步缓和通胀压力。我们预计关税对美国通胀 的传导或接近峰值，后续对降息的掣肘预计减弱。 【宏观】金融数据实现高质量开年——2026 年 1 月金融数据点评 开年金融数据表现平稳，重点关注以下：信贷增长的"开门红"效应较弱，财政靠前 发力推动直接融资 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com ——银行&保险业春节后投资展望 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 行业研究 金融股又到"春播"时？ 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 1 月贷款同比少增，稳定需求仍需政策加力 — — 2026 年 1 月 份 金 融 数 据 点 评 (2026-2-14) 息差保持稳定，盈利增速回升——2025 年四 季 度 商 业 银 行 主 要 监 管 指 标 点 评 (2026-2-13) 要点 事项： 年初以来（截至 2 月 13 日），A、H 金融股表现分化，涨跌互现， ...

Inflation Data Summary - In January, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% and down from the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.3%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, matching market expectations but down from 2.6% previously[2] Key Influences on Inflation - The decline in food and gasoline prices contributed to the unexpected drop in CPI growth, with food prices rising only 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.7% in the previous month[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, with gasoline prices dropping by 3.2%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be near its peak, with recent plans to reduce some tariffs further alleviating inflationary pressures[8] Future Outlook - The market currently anticipates the first interest rate cut in June 2026, influenced by the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve leadership[8] - It is expected that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, resuming a more aggressive rate-cutting approach after the new chair takes office in May 2026[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion, with a growth rate of 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the end of December 2025. The performance of loan growth at the beginning of the year is relatively mild, necessitating attention to the stability of future loan growth [4][24]. - The total social financing in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 1,662 billion, and a growth rate of 8.2%, slightly down from the end of December 2025 [24]. - The M2 growth rate rose to 9% in January, with an increase of 6.9 trillion in M2, marking a significant rise compared to previous years [28][29]. Summary by Sections Loan Growth - In January, the new RMB loans were 4.71 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion, indicating a growth rate of 6.1%, which is lower than the same period in the past three years [4][15]. - Corporate loans played a significant role, with new corporate loans amounting to 4.45 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 trillion [9]. Social Financing - The new social financing scale was 7.22 trillion, with a growth rate of 8.2%, reflecting resilience in the financing landscape despite a slight decline from the previous month [24][25]. - The government bond issuance in January was 9.764 trillion, contributing to the overall social financing growth [24]. Monetary Supply - M2 increased by 6.9 trillion in January, with a growth rate of 9%, indicating a strong monetary supply environment [28][29]. - M1 also saw a growth rate of 4.9%, with an increase of 2.5 trillion, reflecting improved liquidity in the market [28]. Deposit Growth - In January, new RMB deposits reached 8.09 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion, marking a historical high [29][36]. - The growth rate of deposits was 9.9%, indicating a stronger deposit growth compared to loan growth, which may alleviate structural liquidity shortages in the banking system [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) [6] Core Views - The company achieved 4Q25 revenue of $660 million, a year-over-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9%, aligning closely with the company's guidance [2] - The gross margin for 4Q25 was 13%, consistent with the guidance range of 12% to 14%, reflecting an increase from the previous year but a slight decrease from the previous quarter [2] - The report highlights strong demand driven by AI and storage sectors, with expectations for cautious optimism regarding ASP in 2026 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 4Q25 revenue was $660 million, slightly below the market expectation of $666 million, with wafer shipment volume and ASP growth contributing to the increase [2] - The company reported a net profit of $17.5 million for 4Q25, which was lower than the market expectation of $37.4 million [2] - For the full year 2025, revenue reached $2.402 billion, a 19.9% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 11.8% [2] Market Demand and Pricing - The report notes that AI-driven demand led to a 41% year-over-year increase in revenue from analog and power management segments in 4Q25 [3] - Embedded NVM revenue grew by 31% year-over-year, while standalone NVM revenue increased by 23% [3] - The company has implemented slight price increases in 2025 and anticipates further price adjustments in 2026, particularly for 12-inch wafers [3] Capacity and Production - The utilization rate for 4Q25 was 103.8%, with a year-over-year increase of 0.6 percentage points but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.7 percentage points [4] - The company expects continued capacity expansion at Fab 9 and a steady increase in wafer shipments, which will drive revenue growth [4] - The guidance for 1Q26 revenue is set at $650 to $660 million, with a gross margin forecast of 13% to 15% [4] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2026 to $142 million, reflecting a 158% year-over-year increase, and for 2027 to $195 million [5] - The company is expected to maintain a high utilization rate and stable pricing, despite increased depreciation pressures from capacity expansion [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) [6] Core Views - The company's 4Q25 performance met guidance with revenue of $660 million, a year-over-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9%, driven by increased wafer shipments and ASP growth [2] - The report is optimistic about the demand for BCD and storage, expecting strong growth in 2026, with a cautious outlook on ASP [3] - The acquisition of Fab 5 is progressing smoothly, and the company is expected to continue expanding its production capacity [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q25, the gross margin was 13%, aligning with the company's guidance of 12% to 14%, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 4Q25 was $17.5 million, below the market expectation of $37.4 million [2] - For the full year 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.402 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.9%, with a gross margin of 11.8% [2] Market Outlook - The report highlights that AI-driven demand is boosting revenue in the analog and power management segments, with a year-over-year increase of 41% in 4Q25 [3] - The embedded NVM revenue grew by 31% year-over-year, while standalone NVM revenue increased by 23% year-over-year, indicating a favorable market for storage [3] Production Capacity and Guidance - The production capacity for 8-inch wafers reached 486,000 pieces per month in 4Q25, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9% [4] - The company expects 1Q26 revenue to be between $650 million and $660 million, with a gross margin guidance of 13% to 15% [4] - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a high utilization rate in 2026, supported by ongoing capacity expansion and price stability [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2026 is adjusted to $142 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 158.3% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 3.3x for 2026, with expectations of market share growth driven by localized trends and process improvements [5]

Financial Data Overview - In January 2026, new social financing (社融) reached 72,200 billion RMB, an increase of 1,654 billion RMB year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion RMB, a decrease of 4,200 billion RMB compared to the previous year[4] Loan Structure and Trends - In January, the structure of new loans showed that long-term loans to households increased by 3,469 billion RMB, down 1,466 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased by 1,097 billion RMB, up 1,594 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate long-term loans decreased by 2,800 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased significantly by 3,100 billion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate was 9.0%, up from 8.5% in the previous month, while M1 growth rate rose to 4.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[5] - In January, RMB deposits increased by 80,900 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37,700 billion RMB, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions[5] Market Dynamics and Implications - The government bond net financing in January was 9,764 billion RMB, up 2,831 billion RMB year-on-year, serving as a core support for social financing[3] - The active stock market has contributed to the increase in M2 growth, indicating a potential shift in capital flows towards equity investments[11] Economic Outlook - The weak "opening red" effect of credit growth suggests that the anticipated recovery in the real estate market may not meet expectations[16] - The demand for medium- to long-term loans remains weak, indicating ongoing concerns about economic recovery and internal demand[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Real data is better than "involution-driven" high growth. The credit growth in January 2026 was more realistic, and financial institutions paid more attention to the balanced credit delivery. Credit growth should match economic growth and price level targets, rather than simply aiming for high volume [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 2026 January Credit Data Analysis - The new RMB loans in January 2026 were 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the same period in 2024 (4.92 trillion yuan) and 2025 (5.13 trillion yuan), but significantly higher than November 2025 (0.39 trillion yuan) and December 2025 (0.91 trillion yuan) [1]. - January is usually a peak month for credit, with a seasonal "good start" pattern. In 2024 and 2025, January's credit increments accounted for 27.2% and 31.5% of the annual total respectively, and the first - quarter credit increments accounted for 52.3% and 60.1% of the annual total [1]. Analysis of "Involution - Driven" Credit Competition - Some financial institutions used to increase credit delivery in January or the first quarter to create a "good start" situation, which is an "involution - driven" competition. This behavior may lead to capital precipitation, lower net interest margins of the banking industry, and over - draw credit demand in subsequent months [2]. Evaluation of January 2026 Credit Situation - The credit growth in January 2026 was more realistic. The new loans in January were 4.71 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.80 trillion yuan, indicating sufficient credit supply [3]. - On January 15, 2026, the central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, showing sufficient policy strength [3]. - The weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans (domestic and foreign currencies) in January 2026 was about 3.2%, about 20 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating that financial institutions fully met the effective financing needs of the real economy [3]. - In January 2026, the M2 growth rate reached 9.0%, the highest in the past two years, and the growth rate of the social financing stock was basically the same as that in December 2025, indicating a match between social financing scale, money supply growth, economic growth, and price level targets [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [6] Core Insights - The overall impact of storage price increases is manageable, and the strategic restructuring plan is expected to accelerate the return to profitability for the ISG business [1] - In FY26Q3, Lenovo's revenue reached $22.204 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year increase and a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI-related business revenue growing by 72% and accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] - The adjusted net profit for FY26Q3 was $589 million, a 36% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase, primarily due to the exclusion of one-time restructuring costs [1] IDG Business (Intelligent Devices Group) - In FY26Q3, IDG business revenue was $15.755 billion, up 14% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high growth in AI PC revenue and increased sales of high-end products [2] - The PC business revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, with Lenovo's global market share reaching 25.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [2] - Smartphone sales and activations reached historical highs, supported by strong performance from high-end models [2] ISG Business (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG business revenue in FY26Q3 was $5.176 billion, a 31% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI server revenue showing high double-digit growth [3] - The company has a project reserve amounting to $15.5 billion, and the deployment of NVIDIA's solutions has been initiated [3] - A one-time restructuring cost of $285 million was incurred to optimize the product mix and improve productivity [3] SSG Business (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG business revenue in FY26Q3 was $2.652 billion, up 18% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, marking 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit year-over-year growth [4] - The operating profit margin was 22.5%, close to historical highs, with maintenance services and project solutions being the core growth drivers [4] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The FY26 net profit forecast has been raised by 4% to $1.682 billion due to better-than-expected FY26Q3 performance, while FY27 and FY28 net profit forecasts remain at $1.743 billion and $1.917 billion, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [6] Core Insights - The overall impact of storage price increases is manageable, and the strategic restructuring plan is expected to accelerate the return of the ISG business to profitability [1] - For FY26Q3, Lenovo's revenue reached $22.204 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%. AI-related business revenue grew by 72% year-on-year, accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was $589 million, a year-on-year increase of 36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [1] Summary by Sections IDG Business (Intelligent Devices Group) - In FY26Q3, IDG business revenue was $15.755 billion, up 14% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, driven by high growth in AI PC revenue and increased sales of high-end products [2] - The PC business revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with Lenovo's global market share reaching 25.3%, up 1.0 percentage points [2] - Smartphone sales and activations reached historical highs, supported by strong performance of high-end models [2] ISG Business (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG business revenue for FY26Q3 was $5.176 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27% [3] - AI server revenue saw high double-digit growth, with a project reserve amounting to $15.5 billion [3] - The company expects to achieve profitability in FY26Q4, with a target of over $200 million in annual net cost savings for the next three fiscal years [3] SSG Business (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG business revenue for FY26Q3 was $2.652 billion, up 18% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, marking 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit year-on-year growth [4] - The operating profit margin was 22.5%, close to historical highs, with maintenance services and project solutions being the core growth engines [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The FY26 net profit forecast has been raised by 4% to $1.682 billion, while FY27 and FY28 net profit forecasts remain at $1.743 billion and $1.917 billion, respectively [4] - Revenue projections for FY2026E are $80.707 billion, with a growth rate of 16.8% [5]