2025 年 11 月 13 日 总量研究 从两组关系理解 10 月的金融数据 ——2025 年 11 月 13 日利率债观察 要点 1、从两组关系理解 10 月的金融数据 2025 年 10 月，M1 余额同比增长 6.2%，继续处于近三年以来的较高水平。10 月人民贷款增加 2200 亿元，社会融资规模增量为 8150 亿元，M2 余额同比增长 8.2%，看似或多或少有那么点偏少。但是，如果我们考虑到"过去与现在"和 "表面与内在"这两组关系的话，那么便不会再认为 10 月的信贷、社融和 M2 在进行分析研究时，我们既要关注金融数据的表观读数，更要考量数据变化背后 的内在逻辑。特别是本阶段在分析信贷时，应对地方政府化债、中小金融机构化 险所形成的影响予以充分还原。本阶段有大量的地方政府隐性债务被地方政府债 券所置换，企（事）业单位贷款是隐性债务的主要载体，因此地方政府化债会较 为明显地拖累信贷增长。此外，各地中小金融机构正在改革化险，不良资产的处 置也在深入推进。 众所周知，地方政府化债有利于纾解债务链条，让地方政府卸下包袱，轻装上阵； 中小金融机构化险有助于提升金融机构的资产质量，维护金融稳定，畅通经济 ...

2025 年 11 月 13 日 3Q25 费用支出为 13.1 亿元，同比增加 7.6%：销售及营销费用为 2.6 亿 元，同比增长 18.2%，因内容推广和渠道支出增加；一般和行政费用为 10.5 亿元，同比增长 5.3%，因员工相关费用增长。 投资建议：腾讯音乐订阅稳健增长，SVIP 发展提振 ARPPU，广告、演出、 艺人周边等非订阅业务收入贡献增量，社交业务基本企稳。考虑演唱会等 低毛利率业务预计扩张，收入结构变化带来毛利率水平波动，我们小幅下 修 25-27 年经调整归母净利润预测至 97.0/109.8/125.1 亿元（较上次预测 -1.4%/-4.6%/-3.7%）；维持"增持"评级。 公司研究 SVIP 渗透率持续提升，推动演出&粉丝经济发展 ——腾讯音乐（TME.N）25Q3 业绩点评 要点 事件：公司 3Q25 实现总收入 84.6 亿元人民币（yoy+20.6%，vs 彭博一 致预期 82.3 亿元），主要系非订阅业务收入增长超预期；实现毛利润 36.8 亿元，对应毛利率 43.5%（vs 彭博一致预期 43.97%），环比下降 0.9pct， 主要系线下演出、艺人周边商品销售等新领 ...

Macro Analysis - The 2025 Q3 monetary policy execution report affirms the resilience of the domestic economy and alleviates concerns about domestic inflation and global economic recession. The report suggests that monetary policy should focus on "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," indicating a potential increase in easing measures [1] - The report highlights the need to monitor the implementation of policies supporting personal credit repair, as credit policy remains a key focus area [1] - The central bank's concerns regarding the RMB exchange rate have lessened, with a greater emphasis on the positive impact of exchange rate stability on the economy and markets [1] Industry Research - The gradual improvement of the capacity electricity price mechanism is a continuous benefit for the energy storage industry. Inner Mongolia maintains a high level of energy storage subsidies, ensuring considerable energy storage installation growth in the coming year [2] - The market has high expectations for domestic energy storage installations next year, with a focus on monitoring the production of energy storage cells in December and January, as well as upcoming bidding and installation situations [2] - The overall industry remains in a state of sustained prosperity, with investment opportunities particularly in energy storage system integrators, PCS companies, and tight supply-demand segments within the energy storage cell supply chain [2] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of $1.324 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of $74 million, up 9% year-on-year. The net profit forecast for 2025 is maintained at $171 million [4] - The company has made substantial progress in the high-speed interconnect field, gaining customer recognition, which is expected to drive accelerated growth in its data center business. The net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 23% and 29% to $297 million and $400 million, respectively [4] - The company is anticipated to continue benefiting from the growth in AI data centers and automotive cable demand, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] Health Sector Insights - There is a noticeable increase in flu-like cases, which may heighten public and market interest, potentially driving demand for flu vaccines, virus testing, and related medications [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $1.324 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of $74 million, up 9% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.62% [1]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to increased contributions from AI server-related products, ongoing production efficiency improvements, and stable shipments of high-margin products [1]. - The data center and electric vehicle (EV) businesses experienced significant revenue growth, while smartphone revenue declined [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from various segments was as follows: smartphones $210 million (down 20%), data centers $215 million (up 34%), computers and consumer electronics $221 million (no change), electric vehicles $240 million (up 116%), and system terminal products $382 million (up 3%) [1][3]. - The company has raised its revenue growth guidance for system terminal products for Q4 2025, while maintaining the overall revenue growth guidance for the year [1]. Business Segments - The data center business is expected to maintain double-digit growth (over 15% year-on-year) in Q4 2025 and for the full year, driven by increased demand for AI server products [2]. - The automotive business saw a 116% year-on-year increase in revenue, supported by the One Mobility strategy and rising demand for data connectivity and high-power solutions [3]. - The system terminal products segment is projected to have stable revenue in Q4 2025, with a slight decline expected for the full year [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 is $171 million, with subsequent years projected at $297 million for 2026 and $400 million for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 11.4% and 73.7% respectively [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 29x for 2025, 17x for 2026, and 12x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4].

2025 年 11 月 12 日 行业研究 流感样病例占比高于历史同期，提示关注流感疫苗、病毒检测、药品等板块 ——流感疫情跟踪点评（20251112） 医药生物 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：王明瑞 执业证书编号：S0930520080004 021-52523867 wangmingrui@ebscn.com 分析师：吴佳青 执业证书编号：S0930519120001 021-52523697 wujiaqing@ebscn.com 分析师：黄素青 执业证书编号：S0930521080001 021-52523570 huangsuqing@ebscn.com 分析师：黎一江 执业证书编号：S0930522110001 010-57378028 liyijiang@ebscn.com 分析师：叶思奥 执业证书编号：S0930523050003 021-52523837 yesa@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -14% -7% 1% 9% 17% 11/24 01/25 04/25 07/25 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 要点 事件： 近期流感疫情的发病率有所上升，根据国家 ...

2025 年 11 月 12 日 分析师：赵格格 总量研究 如何解读 2025 年三季度货币政策执行报告？ ——2025Q3 货币政策执行报告学习体会 作者 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 要点 事件：2025 年 11 月 11 日，中国人民银行发布《2025 年第三季度中国货币政 策执行报告》。 核心观点： 《2025 年第三季度货币政策执行报告》对国内经济的韧性表示肯定，对国内通 胀、全球经济衰退的担忧略有缓解。考虑到经济增速有所下探，货币政策要 "做好逆周期和跨周期调节"，结合央行重启二级市场买入国债操作来看，货 币政策在边际上加大宽松力度的可能性在上升。信贷政策方面需关注"研究实 施支持个人修复信用的政策措施"如何落实。此外，央行对于人民币汇率的担 忧有所弱化，更侧重于汇率稳定反作用于经济和市场的积极影响。 一、国内经济：韧性增强，结构优化 《2025 年第三季度货币政策执行报告》（下文简称《报告 ...

Macro Analysis - The 2025 Q3 monetary policy execution report affirms the resilience of the domestic economy and alleviates concerns about domestic inflation and global economic recession. The report suggests that monetary policy may increase its easing efforts marginally due to a slowdown in economic growth [1] - The report emphasizes the need for "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy, indicating a potential increase in the central bank's bond-buying operations in the secondary market [1] - There is a focus on the implementation of policies to support personal credit repair, which will be crucial for credit policy [1] Bond Market Analysis - In Q3 2025, major market indices saw an increase, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 9.8%. The total scale of convertible bonds held by funds increased by 43.79 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [2] - The electric power equipment sector saw significant increases in convertible bond holdings, with the average yield of convertible bond funds at 13.67%, which is weaker than the Wind All A Index but stronger than the China Convertible Bond Index [2] Industry Research - The electronic communication industry is expected to benefit from optimistic AI computing power trends, with leading companies having secure valuations. The report highlights the growth potential in the storage and semiconductor sectors [4] - The report indicates that both North American and domestic computing power markets are likely to continue benefiting from these trends [4] Company Research - For Jin Hong Gas (688106.SH), the report projects a decline in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 168 million yuan (down 43.3%), 260 million yuan (down 32.1%), and 350 million yuan (down 22.2%) respectively. The company is expected to benefit from the steady progress of large on-site gas production projects [5] - Guanggang Gas (688548.SH) maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 299 million yuan, 378 million yuan, and 472 million yuan respectively. The company is well-positioned in the electronic bulk and helium gas sectors [7] - He Yuan Gas (002971.SZ) also maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and adds a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 102 million yuan, 111 million yuan, and 121 million yuan respectively, focusing on the development of a centralized production base for electronic gases and chemicals [8] - Xingyuan Materials (300568.SZ) reports a year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 172 million yuan (down 69.6%), 422 million yuan (down 38.9%), and 606 million yuan respectively. The company remains optimistic about its future as a leader in the lithium battery separator industry [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has seen a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to the gradual production of newly established electronic bulk gas projects, which has led to increased capacity [2] - The company is strengthening its position in the electronic bulk onsite gas production sector and enhancing its global helium supply chain [2][3] - The company has successfully secured multiple electronic bulk onsite gas projects in various locations, further solidifying its competitive advantage [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.721 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201 million yuan, up 10.64% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 607 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.15%, with a net profit of 83 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 82.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.99% [1] - The company's gross profit margin was 26.71%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 299 million yuan, 378 million yuan, and 472 million yuan, respectively [3] - The report projects operating revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.874 billion yuan, 3.637 billion yuan, and 4.354 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 36.65%, 26.52%, and 19.73% [4] - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 58 for 2025, decreasing to 37 by 2027 [4][10]

Core Insights - The report highlights that AI is at the center of the global technology wave, with North American cloud providers' capital expenditures exceeding expectations, totaling $102.625 billion in Q3 2025, a 68% year-on-year increase [3][14] - The semiconductor market is projected to reach $800 billion by 2026, with a 9.9% year-on-year growth, driven significantly by AI demand [3][45] - Apple is expected to enter an innovation cycle in 2026, launching new products such as foldable phones and AR glasses, which could reshape the consumer electronics landscape [3][67] Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure - North American cloud providers' capital expenditures are projected to reach $408.6 billion in 2025, a 79% increase year-on-year, and $500 billion in 2026, a 22% increase [3][14] - The AI semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with GPU revenue projected to reach $129.7 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 26% [3][17] - NVIDIA has shipped approximately 6 million Blackwell GPUs and anticipates $500 billion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin chips over the next two years [3][20] Group 2: Storage Market Dynamics - The NAND Flash market is entering a new upcycle driven by AI, with enterprise SSD contract prices expected to increase by 5%-10% in Q4 2025 due to tight supply [3][25] - DRAM manufacturers are shifting focus to higher-margin products like HBM and DDR5, leading to a structural shortage in DDR4, with new contract prices expected to rise by 20%-30% [3][30] - By 2030, the storage market is projected to account for 19% of the overall semiconductor market, which is expected to grow from $799.8 billion in 2025 to $1.22 trillion by 2030 [3][37] Group 3: Semiconductor Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market size is expected to grow by 15.4% in 2025, reaching $728 billion, with logic and storage chips seeing significant growth [3][45] - Advanced chip manufacturing capacity is projected to increase by 69% by 2028, driven by AI demand [3][49] - Global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is expected to reach $3.74 billion from 2026 to 2028, with significant investments in logic and micro components [3][53] Group 4: Consumer Electronics Innovations - Apple is accelerating its product innovation cycle, with plans to launch several new products, including AR glasses and foldable phones, in 2026-2027 [3][67] - Meta has positioned itself as a leader in AI glasses, with significant sales growth and market interest in AI eyewear [3][73] - The global AI glasses market is expected to see sales of 5.5 million units in 2025, driven by new product launches from major brands [3][79] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI-related opportunities, particularly in North American and domestic computing power sectors, as well as storage and semiconductor segments [3][90] - Key companies to watch include major players in cloud computing, storage, and semiconductor manufacturing, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI-driven market expansion [3][90]

2025 年 11 月 11 日 事件 2：公司发布 2025 年三季报。25 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 12.32 亿元， 同比+3.33%，实现归母净利润 0.58 亿元，同比-1.86%。25Q3 公司实现营业收 入 4.26 亿元，同比+1.42%，环比-5.47%；实现归母净利润 0.09 亿元，同比 -43.36%，环比-64.42%。 持续拓宽融资渠道，优化融资结构。为了拓宽融资渠道，优化融资结构，公司拟 以公司及全资子公司部分设备资产售后回租、直租等方式开展融资租赁业务，融 资金额不超过 60,000.00 万元。目前公司及其控股子公司对外担保累计余额为 260,155.83 万元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的比例为 166.10%。 25 年前三季度归母净利润同比下降，随新增产能的放量业绩有望好转。25 年前 三季度公司归母净利润同比小幅下降，但公司的两大产业园的产能已开始逐步放 量，未来业绩有望好转。潜江电子特气产业园规划的"电子级超纯氨、高纯氢、 电子级氯化氢、电子级氯气、电子级甲烷、电子级一氧化碳、高纯羰基硫等电子 特气及电子化学品"等产品已经全部投产，力争 25 年逐步实现"稳产- ...