2026 年 2 月 13 日 要点 1、实在的数据远胜于"内卷"出的高增长 2026 年 1 月新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿元，略低于 2024 年同期的 4.92 万亿元 和 2025 年同期的 5.13 万亿元，但也明显高于 2025 年 11 月的 0.39 万亿元和 2025 年 12 月的 0.91 万亿元。 为何今年 1 月的信贷与去年和前年同期相比是略偏少的，但与前几个月相比又是 显著多增的？这主要是因为 1 月往往是信贷的"旺月"，或者说 1 月（乃至于 一季度）信贷常有"开门红"的季节性规律。例如，2024 和 2025 年 1 月份信 贷增量分别占该年全年增量的 27.2%和 31.5%。（此外，这两年一季度信贷增 量分别占全年的 52.3%和 60.1%。）这种季节性规律很大程度上有经济金融运 行的客观因素，即大家常说"一年之计在于春"，例如大的项目一般在年初开工 建设，还有年初的春耕备耕，皆会带来较为集中的融资需求。此外，部分企业有 在春节前发放工资、年终奖和过节费等劳务报酬的习惯，这也会形成相应的融资 需求。 我们也注意到，过去也有一些金融机构为了营造"开门红"的局面，刻意在 1 ...

2026 年 2 月 13 日 公司研究 存储涨价影响整体可控，战略重组计划有望加速 ISG 业务重回盈利轨道 ——联想集团（0992.HK）FY26Q3 业绩点评报告 要点 | 指标 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 56,864 | 69,077 | 80,707 | 85,455 | 91,471 | | 营业收入增长率（%） | (8.2) | 21.5 | 16.8 | 5.9 | 7.0 | | 净利润（百万美元） | 1,011 | 1,384 | 1,682 | 1,743 | 1,917 | | EPS（美元） | 0.084 | 0.113 | 0.136 | 0.140 | 0.155 | | EPS 增长率（%） | (37.7) | 34.4 | 20.0 | 3.6 | 10.0 | | P/E | 14 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 资料来源：Wind，光大证券研究所预测，股价截止 2026-02-12 ...

业绩：FY26Q3 公司收入 222.04 亿美元，同比上升 18%、环比上升 9%。其 中，人工智能相关业务收入同比上升 72%，占公司总收入的 32%。归母净利 润 5.46 亿美元，同比下降 21%、环比上升 60%。非香港财务报告准则经调整 归母净利润为 5.89 亿美元，同比上升 36%、环比上升 15%，主要受剔除一次 性重组费用 2.85 亿美元，认股权证的非现金公允价值收益 1.86 亿美元及可换 股债券的名义利息收入 2,900 万美元的影响。 IDG业务（智能设备业务）：FY26Q3 PC业务收入实现同比双位数增长，手机 销量创历史新高。FY26Q3 IDG业务收入157.55亿美元，同比上升14%、环比 上升4%，受益于AI PC收入高速增长、及高端产品销售增加；运营利润率7.3%， 环比维持稳定。分业务看：1）FY26Q3 PC业务收入同比上升18%。期内联想 PC出货量全球市场份额达25.3％，同比提升1.0pct；中国市场AI PC渗透率上 升至近20%。展望FY27，预计存储价格上涨将导致全球PC出货量同比下滑， 公司积极发挥供应链优势应对存储涨价压力，我们认为公司受影响幅度整体 ...

2026 年 2 月 13 日 公司研究 25 年业绩继续承压，分红金额保持平稳 ——百威亚太（1876.HK）2025 年年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：7.83 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 132.43 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 1036.96 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 6.89/9.42 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 6.15% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 25/2 25/3 25/4 25/5 25/6 25/7 25/8 25/9 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/1 26/2 百威亚太 恒生指数 | 收 ...

总量研究 行业研究 【公用事业】电改"4 号文"：全国统一电力市场顶层文件——碳中和领域动态跟踪（一 百七十三）(买入) 全国电力顶层文件"4 号文"落地。基荷电源调节性功能凸显，各类参与主体商业模 式持续完善。绿电环境溢价逐渐确认，推进各应用场景提升整体消纳。红利板块具备 配置价值，建议关注长江电力、华能国际（A&H）等；碳市场推进、应用场景扩容， 绿电有望盈利企稳，建议关注电投绿能、金开新能等；现货市场、虚拟电厂等持续推 进，建议关注国能日新、朗新科技等。 2026 年 2 月 13 日 【宏观】私营部门企稳，非农超预期回升——2026 年 1 月美国非农数据点评 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 1 月非农数据高于预期，并非由于政府停摆恢复后政府部门就业的回补，就业回暖主 要来自于私营部门的修复，其中生产和服务部门新增就业均同步高增，反映了在关税 扰动边际减弱、2025 年美联储重启降息的背景下，美国经济呈现企稳迹象，也与近 期美国制造业 PMI、服务业 PMI 呈上升趋势相印证。从降息角度看，鉴于就业表现超 出预期，一季度美联储重启降息概率不高。 公司研究 【汽车】深耕"矿"野无人境，智启商用车新征程— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2025 exceeded expectations, reaching $2.489 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.5%, surpassing the previous guidance range of $2.38 to $2.43 billion [4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 19.2%, slightly below market expectations of 20%, primarily due to rising depreciation costs [4]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 was $203 million, a decline of 24.9% year-over-year and 35.5% quarter-over-quarter [4]. - For the full year 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of $9.327 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.2%, with a gross margin of 21% [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, the revenue breakdown by application showed that consumer electronics accounted for 47.3% of wafer revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9 percentage points [5]. - The revenue from 12-inch wafers constituted 77.2% of wafer revenue, with a year-over-year decrease of 3.4 percentage points [5]. - Geographically, revenue distribution in Q4 2025 was 87.6% from China, 10.3% from the U.S., and 2.1% from Europe and Asia [5]. Demand and Capacity Insights - The demand for AI and automotive sectors is driving incremental growth, while the supply tightness in consumer electronics storage is expected to improve by the second half of 2026 [6]. - The company maintained a high utilization rate of 95.7% in Q4 2025, with guidance indicating stability for Q1 2026 [7]. - Capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was $2.41 billion, with expectations for 2026 to remain consistent with 2025 levels [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2026-2027 has been cautiously adjusted downward, with expected net profits of $1.08 billion and $1.25 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 3.2x for H-shares and 5.7x for A-shares for the years 2026-2027 [8]. - Despite short-term profit pressures, the core growth logic of benefiting from AI demand and domestic substitution trends remains strong [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) [5] Core Insights - The company reported 2025 revenue of RMB 7.759 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 7.913 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 2.4% [1] - Gross profit reached RMB 2.770 billion, a 3.3% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 35.7%, slightly below the expected 36.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.860 billion, a significant increase of 68.2% year-over-year, primarily due to the recognition of deferred tax assets [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its differentiated content ecosystem and enhancing product innovation through AI [3] Revenue and Profitability - Online music service revenue was RMB 5.994 billion, up 12.0% year-over-year, with subscription revenue increasing by 13.3% to RMB 5.053 billion [2] - Social entertainment services and other revenue decreased by 32.0% to RMB 1.765 billion, mainly due to the closure of the live streaming feature [2] - The company has seen growth in user scale and engagement, maintaining a DAU/MAU ratio above 30% [2] Content Strategy and Innovation - The company continues to strengthen its differentiated content ecosystem by deepening partnerships with domestic and international copyright holders, introducing K-POP labels, and enhancing its original content offerings [3] - The independent musician ecosystem has grown to over 1 million registered musicians, with more than 5.6 million tracks uploaded [3] - AI-driven product innovations, such as the Climber recommendation model and various interactive tools, have improved user experience [3] Cost Management - Sales expenses decreased by 33.2% to RMB 409 million, reflecting a more prudent approach to advertising and promotion [4] - Management and R&D expenses also saw slight reductions, contributing to overall cost control [4] Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to RMB 2.210 billion and RMB 2.467 billion, respectively, reflecting a 15% and 13% decrease from previous estimates [4] - The report anticipates a long-term improvement in profitability due to scale effects [4]

2026 年 2 月 12 日 行业研究 电改"4 号文"：全国统一电力市场顶层文件 ——碳中和领域动态跟踪（一百七十三） 要点 从"5 号文"到"4 号文"，电力市场化持续推进。2002 年"5 号文"确定电改 雏形，提出 1）厂网分开重组国有电力资产，2）竞价上网实行电价新机制，开 启电力市场化改革。2015 年"9 号文"进一步加快上网电价市场化的步伐，明 确 1）输配电价改革，2）电力市场建设，3）电力交易结构，4）有序放开发用 电计划，5）售电侧改革等方向。此次《国务院办公厅关于完善全国统一电力市 场体系的实施意见》（"4 号文"）继"9 号文"之后电力体制改革的又一里程 碑式顶层设计，确定 1）推进全国统一电力市场：2030 年基本建成统一市场， 除保障性用户外全主体入市，市场化电量占比 70%左右；2035 年全面建成，反 映电能量、调节、环境、容量的多维价值。2）推动电力资源在全国范围内优化 配置：打通国网、南网经营区间交易通道，跨经营区常态化交易；从经营主体分 别进行跨省跨区和省内交易，过渡到经营主体只需一次性提出量价需求、电力市 场即可在全国范围内分解匹配供需的联合交易模式。3）健全电力市 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xidi Zhijia (3881.HK) with a "Buy" rating [3][13]. Core Insights - Xidi Zhijia is positioned as a leading provider of autonomous driving technology and solutions for commercial vehicles, focusing on mining trucks and logistics vehicles. The company is one of the first in China to achieve "no safety personnel normal operation" for autonomous mining trucks and logistics vehicles [1][20]. - The market for autonomous mining truck solutions in China is projected to reach CNY 1.9 billion by 2024, with a total potential market size of CNY 550 billion. The market is expected to grow to CNY 39.6 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 65.3% from 2024 to 2030 [2][39]. - Xidi Zhijia has three core advantages: technological differentiation, strong scene integration capabilities, and rapid commercialization, which are expected to solidify its leading position in the industry [3][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2017, Xidi Zhijia focuses on autonomous driving technology for commercial vehicles, particularly in mining and logistics. The company has developed the world's largest mixed fleet of autonomous mining trucks without safety personnel [1][20]. Market Potential - The autonomous mining truck market is anticipated to expand significantly, driven by increasing demand for intelligent mining solutions and the maturity of technology. The penetration rate of autonomous mining trucks in mining transportation is expected to rise, enhancing market size and commercialization [2][39]. Business Model and Revenue - Xidi Zhijia's core business includes three segments: autonomous driving, V2X solutions, and intelligent perception. The autonomous driving segment accounted for 92.7% of revenue in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the commercialization of mining trucks [33][34]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a significant increase, with expected revenues of CNY 978 million in 2025, CNY 1.98 billion in 2026, and CNY 3.46 billion in 2027. The company is projected to achieve Non-IFRS net profits of CNY 0.75 million in 2026 and CNY 3.57 million in 2027 [4][13]. Competitive Landscape - Xidi Zhijia is distinguished from competitors by its product-driven model, which mitigates operational risks and enhances product development efficiency. The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge through superior technology and integration capabilities [10][11]. Catalysts for Growth - Short-term catalysts include the company's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, acquisition of new orders for autonomous mining trucks, and progress in partnerships with OEMs. Long-term catalysts involve increased penetration of autonomous mining trucks and expansion into overseas markets [12][13].

2026 年 2 月 12 日 总量研究 私营部门企稳，非农超预期回升 ——2026 年 1 月美国非农数据点评 要点 事件： 2026 年 2 月 11 日，美国劳工部公布 2026 年 1 月非农数据：新增非农就业 13.0 万人，预期 7.0 万人，前值由 5.0 万人修正至 4.8 万人；1 月失业率 4.3%，预期 4.4%，前值 4.4%；平均时薪同比升 3.7%，预期升 3.6%，前值由升 3.8%修正 至升 3.7%。 核心观点： 如何看待 1 月大幅高于预期的非农数据？从结构看，本次非农数据高于预期，并 非由于政府停摆恢复后政府部门就业的回补，就业回暖主要来自于私营部门的修 复，其中生产和服务部门新增就业均同步高增，反映了在关税扰动边际减弱、 2025 年美联储重启降息的背景下，美国经济呈现企稳迹象，也与近期美国制造 业 PMI、服务业 PMI 呈上升趋势相印证。 从降息角度看，鉴于就业表现超出预期，美联储的关注点将转向通胀形势，一季 度美联储重启降息概率不高。在对 2026 年美联储降息节奏的判断上，我们维持 此前的观点，认为 2026 年一季度美联储或暂缓降息，待 2026 年 5 月鲍 ...