2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业研究 取向硅钢现货价格年内跌幅达到 23% ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.11.10-11.16） 要点 流动性：10 月 BCI 中小企业融资环境指数值为 52.41，环比+10.15%。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 10 月值为 52.41，环比上月 +10.15%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 10 月为-2.0 个百分点，环比-0.80 个百分点；（3） 本周伦敦金现价格为 4082 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：1-10 月全国房地产新开工面积累计同比为-19.80%。 （1）本周价格变动：螺纹-0.94%、水泥价格指数-0.76%、橡胶+3.14%、焦 炭+0.00%、焦煤+1.86%、铁矿+0.26%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、 水泥、沥青环比分别+0.99pct、-11.30pct、+1.0pct。 地产竣工链条：1-10 月全国商品房竣工面积累计同比为-16.90%。本周钛白 粉、玻璃的价格环比分别+0.00%、+0.00%，玻璃毛利润为-58 元/吨 ...

10 月份财政数据需关注以下三点：其一，一般公共预算支出同比转负，"三保"和 基建投资相关的支出同比增速均较上月回落，需关注 9 月份以来增量财政政策的效 果；其二，政府性基金收支均降速，预计待地方债务结存限额下达并用于补充地方政 府综合财力后，能有所改观；其三，年内政府债供给已至尾声，而 10 月财政存款同 比多增意味着财政资金仍有释放空间，对后续流动性构成利好。风险提示：政策落地 不及预期，重大项目开工不及预期。 行业研究 2025 年 11 月 18 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】财政降速，关注增量政策效能释放——2025 年 10 月财政数据点评 【高端制造】聚变新能发布采购项目超 20 亿元，行业招标提速——可控核聚变行业 系列报告之三(买入) 聚变新能发布招标超 20 亿元，主要涉及电源系统、低温系统、屏蔽包层等环节。"十 五五"规划将核聚变能列为未来产业，可控核聚变产业具备长期增长潜力。建议关注： 1）真空室及内部件：合锻智能、国光电气、安泰科技、应流股份、派克新材、天工 国际（H）；2）磁体系统：联创光电、永鼎股份；3）电源系统：四创电子、王子新 材、旭光电子。4）低温 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 总量研究 医药主题基金表现占优，TMT、科创主题 ETF 受被动资金加仓 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20251117 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.11.10-2025.11.14）黄金价格上涨，国内权益市场指数集体回调。行业 方面，本周综合、纺织服饰、商贸零售行业涨幅居前，通信、电子、计算机 行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周债券型基金表现占优，股混基金净值回 撤。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内市场新成立基金 25 只，合计发行份额为 141.73 亿份。其中股票型基金 14 只、FOF 基金 4 只、混合型基金 4 只、债 券型基金 3 只。全市场新发行基金 41 只，从类型来看，股票型基金 23 只、 混合型基金 8 只、FOF 基金 5 只、债券型基金 4 只、REITs1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数表现来看，本周医药主题基金表 现占优，TMT 主题基金回撤明显。截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，医药、周期、 消费、金融地产、新能源、行业轮动、行业均衡、国防军工、TMT 主题基金 本周涨跌幅 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 行业研究 本周观点：流感样病例占比持续走高，关注流感疫苗、呼吸道病毒检测、感冒药 等板块。 2025 年进入秋季以来，随着气温逐渐下降，各地流感病例呈现明显上升态势， 今年流感疫情可能呈现比以往年份更加严峻的态势。流感病原学监测结果也与往 年有明显区别，2025 年第 45 周，共检测流感样病例检测标本 21412 份，其中 阳性标本以 A(H3N2)为主。流行毒株相较往年有所变化，这可能增加突破群体免 疫屏障的风险。虽因毒株变迁、群体免疫等因素，无法提前预测呼吸道病毒感染 会否流行，但流感流行趋势形成后往往会延续数周，我们提示 2025 年流感大年 风险。投资建议：近期流感疫情上升态势明显，可能引发社会公众和市场关注度 的提升，从而带动防治和检测流感产品的需求增长。建议关注流感疫苗、病毒检 测、感冒药与特效药等方面的投资机会，此外也建议关注血制品等应对复杂态势 的防疫手段。流感疫苗建议关注华兰疫苗、百克生物、金迪克；呼吸道病毒检测 建议关注英诺特、圣湘生物、博拓生物、万孚生物等；感冒药及特效药建议关注 众生药业、华润三九、康缘药业、方盛制药、济川药业、以岭药业、东阳光药、 ...

Macro Analysis - Consumption continues to recover while investment remains sluggish, with October economic data reflecting significant pressure on year-on-year performance due to last year's "export rush" and policy adjustments [2] - Both goods and service consumption show marginal recovery, corroborated by the October CPI recovery, but manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investments continue to decline [2] Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation phase in the short term, despite being in a bull market, with significant room for index growth [3] - Short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [3] Bond Market Insights - Major indicators in the bond market have seen a decline, with October industrial production growth hitting its lowest for the year [4] - The bond market is expected to become more optimistic as the funding environment remains loose, with a projected 10Y government bond yield fluctuation center at 1.7% [4] - The convertible bond market has seen a new wave of growth, with long-term views on convertible bonds remaining positive due to strong demand [5] Credit Market Overview - The issuance of credit bonds increased by 25.31% week-on-week, with a total of 330 bonds issued amounting to 455.379 billion yuan [7] Banking Sector Analysis - The net profit growth rate of commercial banks improved by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth at 2.3% [9] - The overall interest income is expected to remain stable, supported by a recovering capital market, which may sustain the fee income growth trend [9] Real Estate Market Trends - In the first ten months, the new housing transaction area in 30 core cities decreased by 36.9%, while the average transaction price increased by 2% [11] - Recommendations include stable leading companies in core cities and a positive outlook on property service development [11] Steel Industry Developments - The suspension of export restrictions on antimony to the U.S. is expected to boost China's antimony exports [12] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The rapid development of data centers in the U.S. is causing power supply tensions, presenting investment opportunities in electrolytic aluminum [13] - Recommendations include companies like Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao, with a focus on the potential impact of overseas aluminum production capacity [13] Company-Specific Insights - Longxin Group is focusing on digitalization and expanding its business matrix, with projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 0.35, 0.57, and 0.73 yuan respectively [14] - Dama Entertainment's core business is centered on performances and IP derivatives, with net profit forecasts for FY26-FY28 adjusted upwards [15] - Tencent's strong game pipeline and AI strategy are expected to enhance its long-term advertising valuation, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [16] - WeRide is positioned as a leader in L4 autonomous driving, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 587 million, 1.131 billion, and 2.017 billion yuan [17] - SMIC's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, driven by AI demand and accelerated capacity expansion, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [18] - Mao Geping's brand growth momentum continues, with significant sales increases during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan to enhance its long-term development confidence and align the interests of shareholders, the company, and management [1] - The company's performance has been strong, with a 31.3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.59 billion yuan and a 36.1% increase in net profit to 670 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on high-end beauty positioning, expanding its product range into fragrances, and has seen significant growth in both online and offline channels [3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a 31.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [2] - Sales on major platforms during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival showed strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 60.5% on Taobao, 39.8% on Douyin, and 22.3% on JD [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its high-end beauty positioning and has expanded its product categories to include fragrances, with successful product launches in various high-end department stores [3] - The product matrix has been enriched with new series such as Guo Yun Ning Xiang and Wen Dao Dong Fang [3] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.21 billion yuan, 1.58 billion yuan, and 2.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.46 yuan, 3.22 yuan, and 4.16 yuan [3][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 34, 26, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the A-shares and H-shares of the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of $2.382 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The demand driven by domestic substitution and AI continues to be robust, with the company benefiting from increased market share in various sectors [2]. - The company is expected to accelerate capacity expansion in 2026 due to high utilization rates and ongoing demand [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised, with projected net profits of $735 million, $1.101 billion, and $1.321 billion respectively, reflecting significant growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $2.382 billion, with a gross margin of 22%, and net profit of $315 million, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $2.38 billion and $2.43 billion, indicating a cautious outlook due to seasonal factors [1]. Demand and Market Trends - The overall demand remains strong, with a supply-demand imbalance leading to increased orders [2]. - The trend of domestic substitution is enhancing the company's order volume and market share, particularly in sectors like analog chips and memory [2]. Capacity and Utilization - The utilization rate in Q3 2025 was 95.8%, with wafer shipments reaching 2.4995 million pieces [3]. - Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $2.39 billion, with expectations for continued investment to support capacity expansion [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report has adjusted profit forecasts upwards for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 3.5x for H-shares and 6.2x for A-shares [4][5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 15.7%, 24.8%, and 22.0% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience with stable net interest margins and a recovery in profit growth, with net profits for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 1.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 0% [4][5]. - The average capital return rate stands at 8.18%, while the non-performing loan ratio is at 1.52%, slightly increasing by 3 basis points from the previous quarter [4][5]. - The report highlights that the profit growth rate for commercial banks improved by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth at 2.3% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit growth for commercial banks was 0%, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing growth rates of 2.3%, -2.1%, 1.7%, and -7.3% respectively [5][7]. - The net interest margin for the first three quarters remained stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decrease of 11 basis points [24][25]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the non-performing loan ratio slightly increasing to 1.52% and the provision coverage ratio maintaining above 200% [31][36]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan balance was 3.52 trillion yuan, with a provision coverage ratio of 207.2% [31][36]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the banking sector is entering a seasonal "tailwind" period, with expectations of strong performance in the coming months due to high dividend yields and low valuations [38][39]. - The banking index has outperformed the broader market indices, indicating a favorable investment environment [39][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large banks with stable fundamentals and good dividend yields, particularly those with strong regional economic resilience and attractive valuation [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The rapid development of data centers in the United States is causing concerns over electricity supply, which presents investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [1]. - In 2024, U.S. electricity generation is projected to be approximately 42.5% of China's, with industrial electricity consumption accounting for 26% of total usage [1]. - The electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. is expected to rise from 4% of total electricity usage in 2024 to 12% by 2030, indicating significant growth in demand [1]. - U.S. electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is estimated at 670,000 tons, representing 0.9% of global production, and is significantly lower than the 3.67 million tons produced in 2000 [2][3]. - The electricity cost for producing aluminum in the U.S. is approximately 1.9 times higher than in China, which poses economic challenges for U.S. aluminum producers [3]. Summary by Sections Data Center Electricity Demand - The electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. is projected to increase significantly, with an estimated 178 TWh in 2024 and 606 TWh by 2030, which will account for 41% of the increase in U.S. electricity demand from 2024 to 2030 [1][3]. U.S. Aluminum Production - The U.S. electrolytic aluminum production capacity is concentrated in a few plants, with total production expected to be 670,000 tons in 2024, a drastic decline from 3.67 million tons in 2000 due to rising electricity costs [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Yun Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Shenhuo Co., while keeping an eye on China Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial, as the demand for aluminum is expected to rise due to data center growth [4].

2025 年 11 月 16 日 总量研究 本周微涨 ——可转债周报（2025 年 11 月 10 日至 2025 年 11 月 14 日） 要点 1、市场行情 本周（2025 年 11 月 10 日至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，共 5 个交易日）中证转债指 数涨跌幅为+0.52%（上周涨跌幅为+0.86%），中证全指变动为-0.53%（上周 涨跌幅为+0.63%）。2025 年以来中证转债涨跌幅为+18.61%，中证全指涨跌幅 为+23.61%。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为 AAA）、中高评级券（评级为 AA+）、 中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为 AA-）和低评级券（评级为 AA- 及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为-0.61%、-0.38%、+0.56%、-0.09%和+0.17%，中 评级券涨幅最高。 分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于 20 亿元）、中大规模转债（余额在 15 至 20 亿元之间）、中规模转债（余额在 10 至 15 亿元之间）、中小规模转 债（余额在 5 至 10 亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于 5 亿元）本周涨跌幅分 别为-0.41%、-0.88%、+0 ...