Investment Rating - The report assigns a fair value range of 1.73 billion to 1.946 billion yuan for the company's overall future fair value [2] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic enterprise in military refrigeration-type infrared equipment, with advanced technology and a rich product pipeline [1] - The company's business scale continues to expand, and its performance is expected to maintain steady growth [1] - The company's InSb technology route provides a competitive advantage, and it has successfully developed T2SL refrigeration-type detectors, enhancing its market position [2] - Downstream market demand remains strong, driving rapid growth in the company's performance [2] - The IPO fundraising of 500 million yuan will support the company's long-term sustainable development [2] Financial Summary - The company's revenue in 2023 was 702 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 127 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [3] - EPS in 2023 was 0.71 yuan [3] - Revenue is expected to grow to 784 million yuan in 2024, 862 million yuan in 2025, and 933 million yuan in 2026 [3] Industry Analysis - The military infrared market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by increased defense budgets and the modernization of military equipment [10] - The civilian infrared market has broad application prospects, with global civilian infrared market size expected to reach 7.465 billion USD in 2023 [11] - The satellite remote sensing and navigation markets are also expected to grow, with the global remote sensing satellite market projected to reach 76.88 billion USD by 2029 [14][15] Business Segments Infrared Products - Infrared products are the company's core business, accounting for 60.17% of revenue in 2023 [2] - Revenue from infrared products is expected to grow to 472.8 million yuan in 2024, 520.08 million yuan in 2025, and 561.69 million yuan in 2026 [21] - Gross margin for infrared products is expected to be 36% from 2024 to 2026, gradually declining thereafter [22] Components Business - The components business mainly supports the infrared products, with revenue expected to grow to 129.05 million yuan in 2024, 141.95 million yuan in 2025, and 153.31 million yuan in 2026 [23] - Gross margin for components is expected to be 22% in 2024, gradually declining to 21% in subsequent years [24] R&D Business - The R&D business focuses on customized development of infrared products and photoelectric systems, with revenue expected to grow to 42.58 million yuan in 2024, 46.84 million yuan in 2025, and 50.58 million yuan in 2026 [29] - Gross margin for R&D business is expected to fluctuate around 52.58% in 2024, with slight variations in subsequent years [29] Precision Optics Business - The precision optics business is a new segment, with revenue expected to grow to 39.10 million yuan in 2024, 43.01 million yuan in 2025, and 46.45 million yuan in 2026 [30] - Gross margin for precision optics is expected to decline from 49% in 2024 to 41% by 2032 [30] Other Businesses - The company's other businesses include remote sensing, navigation, and information systems, with revenue expected to grow steadily but at a slower pace compared to the core infrared business [32][36][38][41] Future Outlook - The company's overall revenue is expected to grow to 784 million yuan in 2024, 862 million yuan in 2025, and 933 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.74% from 2024 to 2032 [45] - Gross margin is expected to gradually decline from 36.25% in 2024 to 29.14% by 2032 [45]
国科天成新股投资价值研究报告：国内军用制冷型红外装备领军企业
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-04 06:01