Group 1: US Labor Market Insights - In July 2024, the US added 114,000 non-farm jobs, significantly lower than June's 179,000 and the second quarter average of 168,000[5] - The unemployment rate rose for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than in March[5] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.7%, indicating a slight improvement in labor supply[5] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-on-month, but the year-on-year growth fell to 3.6%, the lowest since June 2021[5] Group 2: Economic Implications - The decline in employment is concentrated in sectors such as information, finance, real estate, government, and education, with significant job losses of 35,000, 26,000, and 25,000 respectively in July[5] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut of more than 50 basis points by the Federal Reserve due to the weakening labor market[5] - The current inflation and unemployment relationship in the US is described as a "non-linear saddle shape," suggesting rising inflation risks if job losses continue while demand remains high[6] Group 3: UK Monetary Policy Developments - The Bank of England implemented its first rate cut in a year on August 1, 2024, reducing the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%[5] - The Bank revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.25% and inflation forecast to 2.75%, reflecting uncertainty in future inflation paths[5] - Recent CPI data showed a decline to the target level of 2%, driven by a stronger pound and easing labor market conditions[5]
美国7月就业、英央行首降联合点评：宏观类●劳动力市场降温或令美英央行持续纠结
Huajin Securities·2024-08-04 06:03