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Coinbase Global Inc-A：经调整EBITDA连续6季度为正，未来可期
COINCoinbase(COIN) 海通国际·2024-08-04 06:31

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of 288[1][2][6]CoreViews−AdjustedEBITDAhasbeenpositiveforsixconsecutivequarters,indicatingapromisingoutlook[6]−Revenuefor2024−2026isforecastedat288 [1][2][6] Core Views - Adjusted EBITDA has been positive for six consecutive quarters, indicating a promising outlook [6] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 6.75 billion, 9.233billion,and9.233 billion, and 6.055 billion, respectively, with EBITDA estimated at 4.184billion,4.184 billion, 5.892 billion, and 3.947billion[6][15]−TheEV/Revenuemultiplefor2024is11x,supportingthetargetpriceof3.947 billion [6][15] - The EV/Revenue multiple for 2024 is 11x, supporting the target price of 288 [6][15] Financial Performance - 24Q2 revenue was 1.45billion,up1051.45 billion, up 105% YoY but down 11% QoQ [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for 24Q2 was 596 million, up 216% YoY but down 41% QoQ [7] - Net profit for 24Q2 was 36million,asignificantturnaroundfromalossinthepreviousyearbutdown9736 million, a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year but down 97% QoQ [7] - Trading revenue for 24Q2 was 781 million, up 139% YoY but down 27% QoQ, with trading volume at 226billion,down28226 billion, down 28% QoQ [8] - Subscription and service revenue grew 79% YoY and 17% QoQ, driven by stablecoin and blockchain rewards [8] Market Position and Strategy - Coinbase's market share in the cryptocurrency spot market was 5.8% in 24Q2, down from 6.5% in 24Q1 [8] - The company plans to acquire a European MiFID license, enabling it to trade derivatives in over 20 European markets [8] - Operating expenses accounted for 80% of major business revenue in 24Q2, with marketing expenses expected to increase in 24Q3 [10] Valuation and Metrics - The current price is 212.64, with a 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month absolute return of -4.3%, 4.3%, and 115.6%, respectively [3] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 24x, with a GPM of 34.2% and ROE of 38.4% [5] - The company's market cap is 52.22billion,witha3−monthaveragedailytradingvolumeof52.22 billion, with a 3-month average daily trading volume of 1.972 billion [9]