一周综评与展望：美联储降息预期显著升温

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 indicated a stable economic situation but highlighted increasing external risks and insufficient domestic demand[2] - Macro policies are set to strengthen, with a focus on accelerating special bond issuance and enhancing monetary support for the real economy[2] Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4% in July, indicating contraction, with production and new orders indices at 50.1% and 49.3% respectively[2] - The price indices for raw materials and factory prices dropped to 49.9% and 46.3%, reflecting a decline in overall manufacturing price levels[2] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5% during the July meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - Market expectations for rate cuts increased from 68 basis points to 72 basis points following the meeting, with potential for a rate cut as early as September[2] Market Implications - Short-term outlook suggests continued liquidity easing benefiting U.S. equities and bonds, while global equity markets present good allocation opportunities under the backdrop of rate cut expectations and a weaker dollar[2] - Mid-term risks may arise as financial easing since June could lead to economic and inflation rebounds, necessitating close monitoring of market expectations for rate adjustments[2] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, economic data underperforming expectations, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[2]