百润股份：短期收入承压，关注新品驱动增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.75, compared to the last closing price of 16.21 [1]. Core Views - The company experienced short-term revenue pressure, with a focus on new product launches to drive growth. The first half of 2024 saw revenue of 1.628 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million, down 8.36% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights that the company's pre-mixed beverage revenue was 1.431 billion, down 1.42% year-on-year, with a significant decline in online channel revenue [2][5]. - The company is expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year as the pressure from high base effects eases, and new product launches are anticipated to contribute positively to sales [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.628 billion, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 402 million, down 8.36% year-on-year. The second quarter alone saw a revenue of 826 million, down 7.25% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.28% [2][4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 70.08%, an increase of 4.19 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and price increases [2][5]. Future Projections - The report projects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 3.386 billion, 3.732 billion, and 4.170 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 834 million, 927 million, and 1.044 billion [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.79, 0.88, and 0.99, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 20, and 18 respectively [4][5]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on new product launches, including a new whiskey product expected by the end of the year, which is anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "清爽" product line in penetrating the beer market and targeting consumers aged 25 and above [2][5].