FICC&资产配置周观察：如何看待海外“避险交易”下的资产映射？

Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, exceeding the 12-month moving average of 3.8%, nearing the trigger for the Sam Rule[3] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for July recorded 46.8, marking an 8-month low[3] Market Trends - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq adjusted by 7% and 12% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 retreated 11% from its July peak, indicating a significant market correction[3] - The average decline of the CRB Index during past recession periods was 9.15%, with oil averaging a drop of 24.09% and copper 13.03%, while gold recorded an average positive return of 6.75%[17] Interest Rates and Bonds - The US 10-year Treasury yield fell by 40 basis points to a year-low of 3.8%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 48 basis points to 3.88%[3] - The 10Y-2Y yield spread is close to turning positive, currently at 8 basis points away from normalization, indicating potential economic weakening[4] Currency and Exchange Rates - The USD/JPY exchange rate decreased from 154 to 147 due to a weaker dollar and Bank of Japan's intervention[3] - The USDCNH exchange rate closed at 7.16, with expectations of improved currency policy space in China[4] Commodity Performance - Gold prices fluctuated, initially rising before declining, reflecting liquidity concerns; however, gold is expected to maintain high volatility despite significant gains[17] - Oil prices experienced a spike due to geopolitical tensions but later retreated due to ongoing demand concerns[17]