甘源食品：Q2增速放缓，税收红利释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gan Yuan Food (002991) [4] Core Views - Gan Yuan Food achieved revenue of 1.042 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 26.14% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan, up 39.26% YoY [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 456 million yuan, up 4.90% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, up 16.92% YoY [2] - The company's product portfolio is well-rounded, with traditional products showing steady growth and new products like mixed nuts and colorful beans performing exceptionally well [6] - Channel optimization is accelerating, with a focus on expanding into high-end membership stores and snack retail chains, while also improving the efficiency of existing distributors [6] - Despite short-term pressure on product structure, the company is committed to cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a net profit margin increase of 1.68 percentage points YoY to 16.49% in Q2 2024 [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.441 billion yuan, 3.031 billion yuan, and 3.609 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 32.13%, 24.17%, and 19.05% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 403 million yuan, 502 million yuan, and 615 million yuan, with YoY growth rates of 22.33%, 24.69%, and 22.63% respectively [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 4.32 yuan, 5.38 yuan, and 6.60 yuan per share [6] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has a diversified product portfolio, with mixed nuts and beans, green peas, melon seeds, broad beans, and other series contributing significantly to revenue [6] - Traditional products like green peas, melon seeds, and broad beans continue to grow steadily, while new products like mixed nuts and colorful beans are showing strong growth [6] - The company is actively expanding its sales channels, including high-end membership stores and snack retail chains, while also optimizing its distribution network [6] - E-commerce revenue grew by 9.14% YoY in H1 2024, while distributor revenue grew by 27.72% YoY [6] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 13.4x for 2024E, 10.7x for 2025E, and 8.7x for 2026E [7] - The P/B ratio is 2.9x for 2024E, 2.6x for 2025E, and 2.4x for 2026E [7] - EV/EBITDA is 8.0x for 2024E, 6.3x for 2025E, and 5.1x for 2026E [7]