宏观交易系列一：市场巨震：原因、影响及展望

Group 1: Market Overview - On August 5, 2024, major global assets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 12.4%, triggering a circuit breaker, and a nearly 20% decline over three trading days[2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate fell by 3.3% to 141.7, while the KOSPI200 index decreased by 9.1% and the Taiwan 50 index by 8.7%[2] - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.4%, and international silver prices dropped by 4.5%, with the volatility index rising by 25.8% to 23.4[2] Group 2: Core Insights - The market adjustment is attributed to AI deleveraging on the asset side and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan on the liability side, leading to a stronger adjustment in tech stocks compared to other sectors[3] - The adjustment reflects a "bubble-popping" effect in the global financial market, as the Fed raised interest rates to a high of 5.25-5.50% by Q3 2023, while the real economy showed signs of slowing growth[4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The adjustment in August is seen as a rapid correction to the divergence between the financial market and the real economy, with the likelihood of a financial crisis or a new economic cycle starting being low in the short term[4] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July recorded an increase of only 114,000, the smallest since April 2024, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, the highest since the pandemic[15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market adjustment in early August provides a rebound space for the macroeconomic rhythm, with expectations for more economic data releases to potentially improve risk sentiment[5] - The focus remains on the potential for commodity inflation risks and the correction of economic expectations, particularly in light of geopolitical risks affecting supply chains[25]