周度经济观察：海外资产波动加剧、国内市场挑战升级

Economic Overview - July PMI data indicates insufficient demand remains the primary contradiction in the current economic operation, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.4, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The political bureau meeting acknowledges the situation, suggesting continued fiscal and monetary policy easing in Q3, although total demand pressure is unlikely to reverse in the short term[1] - The service sector PMI for June was 50, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points, indicating weak performance in the service industry[2] Market Reactions - Recent U.S. non-farm employment data showed a significant decline, with July's new jobs at 114,000, down 65,000 from the previous month and below the market expectation of 175,000[14] - The Japanese yen appreciated sharply following unexpected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, leading to significant declines in U.S. and East Asian stock indices[1] - Despite the recent market turmoil, the probability of a U.S. recession is considered low, although adjustments in U.S. stocks may continue due to economic cooling and weak corporate earnings[7] Policy Implications - The central government emphasizes the need to enhance risk awareness and maintain strategic confidence, indicating limited chances for large-scale stimulus policies[4] - The report anticipates that the PPI will continue to face pressure in Q3, with year-on-year declines expected due to last year's high base effects[2] - The report highlights that the domestic equity market's recovery is closely tied to the performance of overseas markets, particularly in light of recent global risk aversion trends[6] Future Outlook - The report suggests that if the issues surrounding land use changes and property rights are not resolved, the liquidity of real estate companies may not improve significantly, delaying overall market recovery[4] - The market expects a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, with a 78% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 22% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the end of the year[14]