原油及聚酯产业链月报（2024年8月）：原油需求或将走弱，聚酯及下游等待旺季修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Bullish" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [127]. Core Insights - The report highlights that global oil prices are expected to remain relatively high, with Brent crude projected to fluctuate between $70 and $90 per barrel in 2024 [47][124]. - It emphasizes the importance of upstream resources and stable industry chain targets, recommending investments in companies like China National Petroleum and CNOOC due to their resource attributes [124]. - The report notes that the oil service industry is expected to maintain stable capital expenditure, with a focus on companies with advanced technology and significant overseas market potential [124]. Summary by Sections 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - The report discusses the geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, including OPEC+ production cuts and the impact of U.S. shale oil production [40][46]. - It predicts that oil prices will experience fluctuations but remain supported by OPEC+ cuts and recovering global demand [40][47]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - The report indicates that the manufacturing PMI across major economies has weakened, which may impact domestic exports [124]. - It mentions that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with potential downward pressure on domestic bond rates [124]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - The report outlines the current state of the polyester industry, noting a decrease in PTA prices and a slight recovery in ethylene prices [93][97]. - It highlights the profitability challenges faced by non-integrated facilities in the polyester supply chain [93]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on upstream resource companies and oil service firms, as well as integrated refining and chemical companies that can leverage cost advantages [124]. - It suggests that the domestic textile and apparel industry is showing signs of weak recovery, with a focus on companies with strong integration capabilities [124].