宏观点评：海外黑色星期一，后市怎么看？

Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 5, global risk assets experienced significant adjustments, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 4,400 points, marking a record single-day decline of over 12%[7] - The Vix index saw its second-largest single-day increase in history, indicating heightened investor panic[1] - The S&P 500 index fell below 5,400 points, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped below 3.9%[21] Group 2: Triggering Factors - The adjustment in expectations regarding the AI technology cycle led to a significant decline in U.S. tech stocks since mid-July, with major companies like Tesla and Alphabet reporting disappointing earnings[10] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike to 0.25% from a previous range of 0-0.1% triggered a rapid appreciation of the yen, leading to a reversal of carry trade strategies[13] - The U.S. recession expectations intensified following a surge in unemployment data, with the Sahm Rule recession indicator crossing the 0.5 threshold, indicating a higher likelihood of recession[21] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The combination of these factors has created a negative feedback loop, where the appreciation of the yen pressures high-yield assets, leading to further sell-offs in global markets[24] - The decline in U.S. stocks is pressuring the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, reminiscent of the emergency 50 basis point cut in March 2020[26] - Emerging markets are particularly sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity, with potential margin call risks and liquidity spiral effects impacting commodities and other assets[25] Group 4: Future Outlook - Attention should be focused on potential market stabilization policies from Japan and the U.S. to mitigate the ongoing volatility[26] - The need for targeted liquidity support tools is emphasized to strengthen market liquidity amid rising margin call risks and liquidity spirals[26]