家用电器行业专题报告：如何看待美国降息对当地家电消费的影响？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Recent macroeconomic indicators in the US have underperformed expectations, strengthening investor expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is believed to benefit US real estate sales and subsequently drive North American appliance consumption [1] - There is a strong inverse correlation between US Treasury yields and existing home sales, with a lag of approximately 2 to 4 quarters from the time Treasury yields decline to when existing home sales show positive year-on-year growth [2] - North American appliance consumption has a significant lag effect from real estate activity, with a typical delay of about one quarter from home sales to appliance consumption [3] - If the market anticipates a Federal Reserve rate cut in Q3 2024, it is expected that real estate will recover to positive year-on-year growth between Q1 and Q3 of 2025, with appliance consumption also reflecting this change within one quarter [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - The long-term mortgage rates follow the 10-year US Treasury yield, and when Treasury yields rise, the cost of home buying increases, suppressing demand [2] - Historical data shows that when Treasury yields decrease, existing home sales typically rise immediately, but it takes about 2 to 4 quarters for year-on-year sales to turn positive [2][3] Section 2: Correlation Between Real Estate and Appliance Sales - Approximately 15% to 25% of appliance consumption in the US is derived from new and existing homes, indicating a strong correlation between real estate sales and appliance consumption [3] - Historical data indicates that during periods of declining Treasury yields, appliance retail sales growth typically remains between 0% and 5%, with some exceptional periods exceeding 10% [3] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on companies that are expected to benefit from potential US interest rate cuts, particularly those with strong overseas brand income and export elasticity, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, Hisense Visual, TCL Electronics, and TCL Smart Home [4]