甘源食品：收入增速环比放缓 税率下降支撑盈利

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 167 million yuan, up 39.26% year-on-year [4] - The revenue and profit performance were below expectations, with a second-quarter revenue of 456 million yuan, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year increase [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downwards due to pressure on e-commerce channels, expecting net profits of 401 million, 501 million, and 580 million yuan for 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 4.31, 5.38, and 6.22 yuan [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.1%. The net profit was 167 million yuan, marking a 39.3% increase [6] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 456 million yuan, with a net profit of 75 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [4][5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various product lines includes 342 million yuan from mixed nuts, 238 million yuan from green peas, and 197 million yuan from other series, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 48.54%, 16.87%, and 24.16% [5] - The sales channels reported revenue of 869 million yuan from distributors, 136 million yuan from e-commerce, and 33 million yuan from other models, with year-on-year increases of 27.7%, 9.1%, and 67.7% respectively [5] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q2 was 34.36%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising raw material costs and a higher proportion of low-margin channels [5] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 16.49% in Q2, up 1.69 percentage points year-on-year, due to a reduction in the corporate income tax rate to 15% [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.92 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 100 million yuan, which represents 60% of the half-year net profit [8] - The company has outlined a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70% when profits are positive and no major investments are planned [8]