2024年7月经济数据前瞻：供给和出口较强

Economic Overview - Current economic challenges include "de-real estate" and "de-China" pressures, with a strong policy strategy focused on a "manufacturing nation" approach[1] - Q2 economic growth fell below targets, prompting increased policy support and potential issuance of new government bonds[1] Industrial Production - July's industrial added value is expected to grow by approximately 5.4% year-on-year, showing a slight recovery from June[2] - The manufacturing PMI for July is projected at 49.4%, indicating continued expansion in production but contraction in demand[10] Retail Sales - Retail sales in July are anticipated to increase by 4.5% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in June, driven by improved consumer sentiment and income expectations[2][14] - The service sector shows mixed performance, with rising restaurant closures impacting overall consumption[14] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year for the first seven months, supported by policy measures and special bond issuance[18] - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate, bolstered by supportive policies aimed at equipment upgrades[2][18] Trade Performance - July exports are forecasted to rise by 9.8% year-on-year, while imports are expected to increase by only 0.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $106.1 billion[3][9] Inflation and Prices - July's CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI is projected to decline by 0.9%[3][9] - Key inflation drivers include fluctuations in pork prices, with expectations of a rise to around 30 RMB/kg by year-end[3] Financial Indicators - New loans in July are estimated at approximately 600 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 250 billion RMB, with a loan balance growth rate of 8.9%[4][9] - Social financing is projected to increase by around 1.4 trillion RMB in July, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4%[4][9]