中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：信用利差进阶指南

Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of credit spreads and introduces a new algorithm for calculating them, addressing the limitations of traditional methods [2] - It emphasizes the necessity of constructing detailed yield curves for specific clusters to accurately assess credit spreads, which is crucial for investment decisions [2] - The report highlights the impact of recent economic data on market sentiment, particularly in relation to U.S. recession fears and their effects on global markets, especially Japanese equities [3][4] Credit Spread Analysis - Two primary methods for observing credit spreads are identified: the first involves calculating the difference between existing yield curves and government bond yields, while the second focuses on statistical analysis within specific clusters [2] - The new algorithm aims to overcome the "term dilemma" faced by traditional methods, allowing for a more nuanced analysis of credit spreads across various maturities [2] - The reliability of the new algorithm is validated against the China Bond yield curve, showing minimal error margins, particularly in high-rated samples [2] Economic Impact and Market Reactions - Recent U.S. economic data has intensified recession expectations, leading to declines in U.S. equities and the dollar, while boosting demand for U.S. Treasuries [3] - The report notes that the Japanese yen has appreciated significantly due to shifts in interest rate expectations, adversely affecting Japanese exports and corporate earnings [4] - The correlation between the yen's strength and the performance of Japanese equities is highlighted, indicating that a stronger yen typically leads to lower stock prices in Japan [4] Company Performance Insights - Meta's Q2 2024 revenue increased by 22% to $39.07 billion, driven by strong advertising performance, particularly enhanced by AI capabilities [3] - Amazon's Q2 2024 revenue grew by 10% to $148 billion, with AWS and advertising being key growth drivers, although slightly below market expectations [3] - Both companies have adjusted their capital expenditure forecasts for 2024, reflecting increased investment in technology and infrastructure [3]