日股急跌的历史回眸

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of -12.4% on August 5, marking the largest decline since the "Black Friday" of 1987 [1][11][12] - Historical data indicates that major declines in the Japanese stock market are often the result of both internal and external factors, with external influences being more pronounced [11][12] - Prior to major declines, the Japanese stock market typically accumulates gains; for instance, the Nikkei had a year-to-date increase of 7.3% as of August 2, 2024, and had previously seen a 25% rise in early July [1][11][12] Group 2 - The report notes that most significant drops in the Japanese stock market are influenced by overseas factors, particularly from the US and European markets [1][11][12] - Specific historical events that led to declines include the 1987 crash linked to the US market, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2013 drop due to the Federal Reserve's hints at tapering quantitative easing [1][11][12] - In rare cases, internal shocks, such as the 2011 earthquake, have also caused significant declines in the Japanese market [1][11][12] Group 3 - The current decline in the Japanese stock market is attributed to the weakening of the US stock market and the appreciation of the yen, which has impacted carry trade strategies [1][15][19] - The report emphasizes that the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hikes to stabilize the yen have contributed to the market's downturn [1][19] - The report suggests that the impact of the recent decline on global markets may take 1-2 quarters to dissipate, with US markets typically leading the recovery [1][11][12] Group 4 - The report anticipates that the risks associated with the Japanese stock market's decline may gradually diminish, as the Bank of Japan faces constraints on further rate hikes due to weak economic recovery [2][21] - It also notes that while the US economy is showing signs of marginal slowdown, it remains resilient, which could provide support for global equity markets in the medium to long term [2][21][25] - The projected economic growth for Japan in 2024 is expected to drop significantly to 0.3% from 1.8% in the previous year, indicating potential challenges ahead [21][23]