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公用事业行业周报:两部门发文,可再生能源电力消纳责任再强化
Xiangcai Securities·2024-08-07 02:01

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The public utility sector has underperformed, with a decline of 1.75% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.73% [2][11] - The carbon market has seen a significant decrease in transaction volume, down 54.07% week-on-week, with an average price of 91.18 yuan/ton [3][15] - The inflow of water into the Three Gorges Reservoir has increased significantly year-on-year, with an average inflow of 25,728.57 cubic meters per second, up 54.06% [4][19] - Domestic natural gas prices have risen, with the LNG ex-factory price at 4,875 yuan/ton, up 3.09% week-on-week [5][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Trends - As of August 2, 2024, the public utility sector has dropped 1.75%, ranking 30th among first-level industries [2][11] - Sub-sectors show varied performance: thermal power down 2.86%, hydro down 0.29%, photovoltaic up 3.5%, wind down 1.24%, gas down 0.8%, heating services up 1.15% [2][11] 2. Carbon Market Dynamics - The national carbon market's total transaction volume was 506,400 tons, with a total transaction value of 46.1752 million yuan [3][15] - The European carbon market index closed at 69.76 euros/ton [3][15] 3. Water Resource Management - The average outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir was 28,585.71 cubic meters per second, with a year-on-year increase of 67.45% [4][19] 4. Natural Gas Pricing Trends - The LNG import price was 12.91 USD/mmbtu, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.95% [5][21] - The NYMEX natural gas futures price in the US was 1.98 USD/mmbtu, down 0.8% week-on-week [5][21] 5. Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to enhance renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2024 [6][24] - The State Council's plan aims to improve the carbon emission accounting system by 2025, establishing a dual control system for carbon emissions [8][25] 6. Investment Recommendations - Long-term outlook suggests a decline in traditional fossil fuel usage and an increase in electricity consumption [9][28] - Recommendations include focusing on stable performance and high dividend yield leading power operators and regional operators with strong price support [9][28]