美国经济：服务业重回扩张，衰退担忧降温

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The July Services PMI rebounded significantly from 48.8 to 51.4, indicating a return to expansion, surpassing market expectations of 51[3] - The Services sector, which accounts for nearly half of the US GDP, shows signs of resilience, with business activity, new orders, and employment indices all returning to expansion territory[2] - The Manufacturing PMI fell sharply from 48.5 to 46.8, marking the largest contraction in nearly a year, with significant declines in key indices[3] Group 2: Future Projections - US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% last year to 2.2% this year and further to 1.8% next year[2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, with a total reduction of 50 basis points this year and an additional 100 basis points next year[2] - Long-term US Treasury yields are anticipated to decrease to 4% by the end of this year and 3.9% by the end of next year[2] Group 3: Inflation and Employment - Inflation is expected to cool as it declines faster than nominal interest rates, leading to higher real interest rates and further tightening of policies[2] - The unemployment rate is rising primarily due to an influx of immigrants increasing the labor force, raising concerns about potential acceleration in job losses[2] - The Services PMI's return to expansion is crucial for maintaining overall economic resilience amid manufacturing sector weaknesses[3]