中泰时钟资产配置策略（2024年08月）：美国衰退情绪升温，A股ETF资金持续流入

Asset Scoring and Overview - The overall asset scoring indicates a relatively stable fundamental outlook, with transaction sentiment showing a marginal recovery. A-shares scored 7, reflecting a stable fundamental and policy environment, potentially attracting bottom-fishing capital [3][4] - The bond market scored 6, benefiting from risk-averse sentiment, while the US stock market scored only 2 due to concerns over a cooling labor market and renewed recession fears [4][3] Market Review - In July, A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the CSI 300 down 0.6% and the CSI 500 down 1.1%. The consumer sector led the decline, while the financial sector saw an average increase of 4% [6][7] - The bond market showed mixed results, with convertible bonds down 2.5%, while government and corporate bonds saw slight increases of 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively [6][7] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.1%. Gold prices surged by 5.2%, contrasting with declines in agricultural and industrial commodities [6][7] Macroeconomic and Sentiment Indicators - Economic output indicators remained relatively stable, with a notable drop in the output gap but still slightly above zero. The growth rate of fiscal spending showed a slight decline, and the marginal release of base currency has decreased, although it remains at a high level [10][15] - The 12-month rolling fiscal spending intensity decreased from 23.4% to 23.0%, indicating a slight contraction in local government financing behavior [12][10] - The credit growth of commercial banks continues to decline, with high levels of fund turnover [19][10] Industry Rotation and Multi-Asset Portfolio - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, transportation, automotive parts, tourism consumption, and electric power equipment and new energy, which are expected to benefit from various market dynamics [37][36] - The ETF industry rotation strategy showed a net value decline of 1.46% in July, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index [37][36]