黄金行业深度报告：新旧范式共振，降息预期下持续看好黄金板块配置机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the gold sector, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the context of anticipated interest rate cuts and the resonance of new and old paradigms [3][4]. Core Insights - Gold possesses four attributes: financial, monetary, hedging, and commodity, with the real interest rate of the US dollar being a key long-term indicator for gold pricing [3][4][9]. - Recent trends show a weakening US economy, leading to elevated expectations for interest rate cuts, which have contributed to gold prices reaching historical highs [3][4][14]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with global net buying rising from 254.9 tons in 2020 to 1037.4 tons in 2023, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [4][11][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold Pricing Framework - Gold's financial attribute is linked to real interest rates, showing a negative correlation with the 10-year US Treasury yield and TIPS rates [9][10]. - The monetary attribute reflects gold's role as an alternative to the US dollar, with a weaker correlation to the dollar index compared to real interest rates [9][10]. - The hedging attribute highlights gold's appeal during risk events, where it serves as a store of value [10]. - The commodity attribute is less significant but is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, particularly the increasing role of central bank purchases [11][12]. 2. Short-term Outlook - Economic indicators in the US, including inflation and employment data, have shown a downward trend, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts [14][17]. - The CPI in June 2024 was reported at 3.0%, reflecting a consistent decline in inflation since 2022 [15][16]. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8% in July 2024, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [17] . 3. Long-term Outlook - The new paradigm framework suggests that strong central bank gold purchases, increasing US money supply, and geopolitical tensions will likely elevate gold's long-term price center [19][21]. - The structure of gold investors is shifting, with central banks becoming a significant demand force, particularly in Asia [19][20]. - The US M2 money supply continues to grow, contributing to a rising price center for gold priced in dollars [21][22]. 4. Comparison of 2024 vs. 2019 - The report analyzes the differences in gold's performance during the interest rate cut expectations of 2018-2022 and the current period, noting that gold has experienced a unique bull-bear cycle influenced by various economic factors [26][27]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the rising gold prices, including Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold, all of which are expected to see performance improvements [28][34][50][52].