银行行业跟踪分析：四大行有多少国债？

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as Buy [4] Core Views - The market has recently focused on the bond-selling behavior of major banks, and the report estimates the scale of government bonds held by the four major banks for investor reference [2] - The four major banks do not separately disclose the "government bond" scale, but it can be estimated through two approaches: - For ICBC and ABC, the scale of government bonds held can be obtained from the "related party transactions" section in their financial reports, with ICBC holding CNY 2.37 trillion and ABC holding CNY 1.35 trillion at the end of 2023 [2] - For CCB and BOC, the scale of government bonds can be estimated based on the "High-Quality Liquid Assets" (HQLA) balance, with CCB holding approximately CNY 1.97 trillion and BOC holding CNY 0.98 trillion at the end of 2023 [2] - Overall, the four major banks held a total of CNY 6.66 trillion in government bonds at the end of 2023, accounting for approximately 22% of the total market government bond balance of CNY 29.71 trillion [2] - By August 6, 2024, the total market government bond balance increased to CNY 31.81 trillion, and the estimated holding of the four major banks is approximately CNY 6.99 trillion [2] Government Bond Distribution - The majority of government bonds held by the four major banks are in the hold-to-maturity category [3] - At the end of 2023, the proportion of government bonds classified as trading financial assets and other debt investments was 1.3% and 19%, respectively [3] - The estimated non-hold-to-maturity government bond investment scale of the four major banks was approximately CNY 1.3 trillion at the end of 2023, and by August 6, 2024, it is estimated to be CNY 1.4 trillion [3] Financial Investment Structure - The financial investment structure of the four major banks shows that government bonds account for a significant portion of their financial assets [9] - ICBC: Government bonds account for 74.20% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 19.96% of total financial investments [9] - CCB: Government bonds account for 75.80% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 20.42% of total financial investments [9] - ABC: Government bonds account for 62.00% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 12.00% of total financial investments [9] - BOC: Government bonds account for 69.47% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 13.72% of total financial investments [9] Stock Valuation and Ratings - All major banks listed in the report, including ICBC, CCB, ABC, BOC, and others, are rated as Buy with target prices and valuation metrics provided [7]