2024年7月进出口数据点评

Export Data - In July 2024, China's export value increased by 7% year-on-year, below the expected 9.54% and down from 8.60% in June 2024[1] - The export growth rate to major production countries decreased, with exports to South Korea dropping by 3.3 percentage points (pct) to 0.8%, and to Japan decreasing by 6.9pct to -6.0%[1] - Exports to the United States increased by 1.5pct to 8.1%, while exports to the European Union rose by 3.9pct to 8.0%[1] Import Data - In July 2024, China's import value rose by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.99% and significantly up from -2.30% in June 2024[1] - Major imports included agricultural products, which increased by 9.16pct, and crude oil, which rose by 20.81pct[1] - The import of mechanical and electrical products surged by 15.42pct to 15.19%[1] Market Trends - The PMI for new export orders in July was 48.50, indicating a slight increase of 0.20 from the previous month, but still below the neutral level[1] - The global semiconductor cycle is on the rise, and some countries are initiating interest rate cuts, which may stimulate demand[1] - The overall economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks including economic slowdown and unexpected policy easing[2]