高盛-变革中的中国：聚焦产能周期_面对不均衡、判断转折点、穿越长周期

Industry Overview - The report focuses on seven key industries in China that contribute 22% to GDP growth, with five industries currently operating at overcapacity, leading to zero or negative cash margins for over 50% of their capacity [1] - The industries analyzed include solar modules, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, power semiconductors (IGBT), construction machinery, air conditioners, and steel [5][6] - China's global supply share in these industries ranges from 66% to 86%, with significant export growth observed from 2020 to 2023, particularly in lithium batteries (720% growth) and electric vehicles (670% growth) [8][22] Supply-Demand Imbalance - Five out of the seven industries have China's capacity exceeding global demand, with solar modules at 200% and lithium batteries at 150% of global demand [10][21] - Capacity utilization rates in 2023 ranged from 30% to 87%, with solar modules at 44% and electric vehicles at 54% [8][21] - Over 50% of the supply in most industries operated at zero or negative cash margins in Q1 2024, with solar modules and steel being the worst performers [31][37] Cyclical Inflection Points - The report identifies solar modules and lithium batteries as industries closest to a cyclical inflection point due to negative cash margins and reduced capex plans, while electric vehicles and power semiconductors are further away [1][11] - Capex revisions over the past 12 months show significant cuts in lithium batteries (-41% for 2024E) and solar modules (-5% for 2024E), while power semiconductors saw a 130% increase in capex plans [33][37] - The tipping point for capex adjustments is expected when over 50% of the supply is in net debt and EBITDA interest coverage falls below 5x, with solar modules and lithium batteries likely to reach this point sooner [37][39] Global Market Impact - China's share in ex-China markets is expected to stagnate or decline, with solar modules and lithium batteries potentially losing 4-19% of their market share by 2028 [42][43] - Chinese producers are increasingly building capacity outside China, with lithium batteries and electric vehicles leading this trend, particularly in the US and Europe [40][43] - Trade tensions, particularly with the US and EU, pose risks to China's exports, with 40-60% of solar modules, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles exported to these regions [24][26] Industry-Specific Insights - Solar Modules: China's capacity is 200% of global demand, with a 46% price decline in Q1 2024. The industry is expected to see a cyclical bottom by 2025, with one-third of capacity likely to shut down [66][67] - Electric Vehicles: China's capacity is 120% of global demand, with 42% of exports going to the US and EU. The industry is not yet at a tipping point, with 50% of firms still generating positive cash margins [71][72] - Lithium Batteries: China's capacity is 150% of global demand, with a 41% capex cut for 2024E. The industry is close to a tipping point, with significant consolidation potential [11][33] - Power Semiconductors (IGBT): Capex plans have increased by 130% for 2024E, but the industry is 2-3 years away from a cyclical inflection point due to strong demand and high capex [33][37] - Steel, Construction Machinery, and Air Conditioners: These industries are expected to remain structurally oversupplied, with limited cyclical improvements [11][45]