Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a "Fed credibility trade" and suggests that the current market does not feel like a volatility 5x market, indicating a cautious outlook on volatility levels [1]. Core Insights - The current market volatility is perceived as unusually low, reminiscent of the lowest levels seen during Trump's first term, with significant implications for trading strategies [1]. - There is a notable demand for cyclical assets, evidenced by large short positions in macro products and software, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [9]. - The report highlights that the total gamma estimates for SPX are showing a certain counter-cyclicality within the first 3% of spot price fluctuations, suggesting potential trading opportunities [5]. - The technology sector continues to face pressure, with a reported decline of -2.3 standard deviations, marking it as one of the most impacted sectors [12]. - Small-cap stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 for 11 consecutive trading days, a trend not seen since 2008, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Prime Book - The total short positions in the U.S. fundamentals have been at the 100th percentile over the past 1, 3, and 5-year periods, indicating extreme bearish sentiment [12]. - Macro products are facing significant shorting, with investors looking to profit from increased market differentiation ahead of earnings season [12]. 2. Shares - The report notes a busy week with various meetings and earnings reports, highlighting the "Trump positive" trades being closed out [14]. 3. Futures - CTA positions remain heavily long, with increasing risks of liquidation as the market stagnates, despite no recent investor inquiries about these stocks [15]. 4. Derivatives - The report discusses the rare occurrence of both stock and fixed income volatility being low simultaneously, creating opportunities for high-leverage, low-premium stocks and fixed income double-digit bonds [17]. 5. Emerging Markets - A survey of over 400 fund managers shows a strong preference for returns from emerging markets, with significant investments in options indicating bullish sentiment [19]. 6. ETFs - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as popular trading targets, with IWC (micro-cap ETF) showing consistent daily gains this year [26]. 7. Baskets - The report suggests expanding investment scope, recommending long positions in companies leveraging AI to enhance productivity [22]. 8. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies opportunities in stocks and mixed-rate bonds, noting low implied prices that could yield convexity returns under reasonable strike prices [27].

高盛周末宏观观点 20260117 摘要 美国政府可能出台住房、信用卡及金融产品可负担性相关行政命令，但 通过现有行政权力推动重大变革的能力有限，实际影响或受限。 最高法院对 IEP 关税裁决结果未定，审理时间越长，部分关税得以保留 的可能性越大。若关税被否决，政府或通过 122 条款和 301 条款重建 关税，但税率可能略有调整。 美国大型银行财报显示消费者支出保持稳健增长，信贷质量未实质性恶 化，贷款增长回升，运营杠杆提升，但信用卡定价上限的潜在影响引发 市场担忧。 预计 2026 年美元全年呈下行趋势，新兴市场货币前景略趋不利，上调 澳元、新西兰元等周期性 G10 货币评级，建议投资者考虑融资来源多元 化。 日元已隐含财政风险溢价，仍是优质的对冲工具，是错位最严重且具备 最大潜在升值空间的货币之一。美国经济过热将为全球其他地区设置高 竞争门槛。 如果最高法院宣布 IEP 关税无效，并考虑到政府重新征收关税或费用，你认为 利率市场会有什么反应？ 在 11 月 5 日口头辩论期间，我们观察到前端通胀相关资产出现抛售，同时收 益率延续上行趋势，由曲线中段带动。这表明市场预期额外通胀压力传导，并 Q&A 政府在 ...

高盛：跨行业工具箱-2025 年第四季度核心洞察与 2026 年度首选股 20260117 摘要 约 65%的欧洲资本品公司层面指标显示环比加速趋势，主要增长来自电 气设备及相关市场，以及部分大宗商品相关领域，海事、医疗等板块表 现突出，预示四季度财报季表现良好。 资本支出追踪器显示未来三年（2025-2028 年）形势强劲，Kiger 追踪 数据约为 7.8，接近 2011 年或 2004-2007 年扩张高峰期水平，主要由 超大规模企业推动，占比已提升至三分之一。 投资者对电气设备板块业务集中度担忧加剧，当前板块市盈率较斯托克 600 指数溢价近 50%，远高于长期平均水平，未来关键在于证明盈利增 长的持续性及盈利预期上调空间。 重点关注预期财报领先及 2026 年业绩指引优质标的，如电缆制造商， 其布局电网输配电领域，积压订单已排至本年代末，同时配电领域投资 加速，有望实现两位数增长。 对 2026 全年优质标的给出溢价评级，预计去年因关税转嫁影响导致利 润率承压的股票，明年增速将达到 9.5%，显著高于行业水平，同时利 润率提升幅度也将超过市场一致预期。 Q&A 第四季度最新数据点的关注重点是什么？ ...

高盛：人工智能将如何影响就业？20260117 摘要 预计 2026 年 GDP 同比增长 2.5%，远高于市场共识，主要驱动力包括 消费支出、商业投资和政府支出，其中政府支出贡献约 30 个基点。 美联储降息预期推迟至 2026 年 6 月和 9 月，每次降息 25 个基点，此 前预期因劳动力市场恶化趋势未持续而被调整。政策预测风险可能偏向 鸽派，主要受劳动力市场相关风险影响，或与人工智能有关。 美联储认为长期适宜利率区间在 3%至 3.25%左右，预计年底核心 PCE 将降至 2.1%，到 2026 年，美联储有充分理由将利率下调至长期中性 利率水平，但具体时机仍需视经济数据而定。 AI 可自动化约 25%的工作时长，主要集中在日常性、重复性工作，如填 写表格、整理数据等。法律、行政支持、专业服务、技术服务和科学及 建筑行业生产力提升显著。 预测 AI 将推动劳动生产率提升 15%，主要通过自动化常规任务，释放 员工时间用于更具生产力的工作。约 6%至 7%的员工可能面临岗位替代， 但有望在 AI 创造的新岗位中找到就业机会。 Q&A 2026 年上半年美国经济增长的前景如何？ 2026 年上半年，美国经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, indicating a favorable investment environment due to strong economic growth and declining inflation [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights two main themes in the Asian emerging markets: the gradual appreciation of the Renminbi and the end of the Asian interest rate easing cycle, driven by strong economic growth and export performance [5]. - The report suggests that the market is currently in a "Goldilocks" state, characterized by good economic growth and declining inflation, which is favorable for risk assets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks, technology bubbles, and the independence of the Federal Reserve as potential risk factors [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Data and Trends - U.S. December CPI data was slightly below expectations, while China's December PPI inflation rate was slightly above expectations, with exports growing by 6.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered several structural loan tool rates by 25 basis points and increased their quotas, indicating a credit expansion [1][2]. Currency Strategies - The report recommends a bearish options strategy on USD/SGD, targeting a move towards the 6.80 range in the next 3-6 months, as policy signals indicate Renminbi appreciation [5]. - The report notes that the Renminbi's appreciation has limited spillover effects on low-yield currencies, as it is driven by a significant trade surplus rather than domestic demand [5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current low-volatility environment is an opportune time for establishing risk hedges, particularly in the foreign exchange market [4]. - The report anticipates strong industrial value-added data from China, while retail sales and fixed asset investment may show weakness [8].

高盛：2026 年支付行业展望：未来一年十大投资者主题 20260117 摘要 2026 年美国消费者支出预计稳定增长，得益于财政刺激和较低的基数 效应。低收入群体对财政刺激反应积极，实际工资增长也有助于消费， 但高昂的借贷成本仍构成挑战，预计上半年中低收入消费者处境艰难， 退税季或带来改善。 支付行业估值倍数受压，尽管营收和利润率增长，但股价下跌，反映市 场对竞争加剧和长期护城河的担忧，以及资金流出科技领域。大型银行 受益于监管放松，而 Visa 和万事达卡未能享受同等利好，市场轮动格局 已形成。 生成式商务通过 AI 代理完成购物，支付生态系统已出现创新，如卡组织 与 OpenAI 合作。Visa 和 Mastercard 推出通用令牌解决方案。但该生 态系统仍处于发展初期，面临欺诈和安全风险，预计 2026 年不会显著 增长。 《信用卡补偿法案》获总统支持，通过可能性大增，将成为信用卡市场 结构改革的焦点议题。若利率上限设定为 10%，银行可能盈亏平衡，该 法案将对支付生态系统产生深远影响。 我们预计美国的支出前景将相对稳定，这部分归因于财政刺激措施和更宽松的 同比基数效应。我们持续关注低收入消费者群体 ...

全球信任圈收窄，可靠性、可负担性与安全性成为投资核心考量，可持 续发展议题重心转向风险缓释，大规模基础设施投资成为趋势，以应对 电力需求增长、基础设施老化及实体风险。 人工智能的影响与创新尚未完全明确，企业和家庭对电力、水资源、供 应链、劳动力及网络供应的可靠性信心不足，驱动可靠性投资浪潮，电 力需求增速攀升至 1990 年代以来罕见水平。 美国能源部长强调利用国内资源维持天然气与电力定价优势，警示过度 依赖间歇性电力，建议提高天然气和煤炭产能利用率，扩大国内核能发 电规模，但可再生能源产能预计保持健康增长。 数据中心用电需求预计到 2030 年大幅增长，人工智能发展面临评估、 数据处理和资源管理三大问题，需要大量投入建设配套基础设施，效率 提升并未显著影响整体研发预算。 数据中心电力采购将多元化发展，短期内发展简单循环天然气、公用事 业规模太阳能及电池储能项目，中期聚焦天然气联合循环项目，长期来 看核能将成为重点方向，同时倾向寻找国内供应链来源。 Q&A 高盛：可持续研究：2026 年展望、AI 创新与能源会议要 点 20260117 摘要 高盛在 2026 年展望中提出了"可靠性与民生要务"两大核心主题， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and WuXi XDC, with specific target prices set at HK$122.5, HK$33.5, and HK$71.2 respectively [10][9][11]. Core Insights - The Chinese CDMO market sentiment is improving, with share prices for key players up by an average of 21% year-to-date [1]. - Preliminary FY25 results for WuXi AppTec, WuXi XDC, and Pharmaron were broadly in line or slightly ahead of expectations, with capacity expansion progressing well in key modalities and overseas [1]. - For FY26, WuXi AppTec expects similar growth to FY25, while WuXi Biologics anticipates accelerating revenue growth [1]. - Investors are expected to focus on backlog and new order trajectories for FY25, as well as more specific guidance for FY26 regarding revenue, margins, and capital expenditures [1]. Company Summaries WuXi AppTec - FY25 preliminary revenue reached Rmb45.5 billion, representing a 15.8% year-over-year increase, exceeding prior guidance of 13%-17% [4]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25 was Rmb15.0 billion, up 41.3% year-over-year, driven by strong contributions from the TIDES segment [4]. WuXi Biologics - FY25 saw record project additions, with expectations for FY26 revenue growth to accelerate [2]. - The company reported a significant increase in new D-segment projects, reaching a record 209, with a notable contribution from bi- and multi-specific antibodies [7]. WuXi XDC - FY25 revenue was in line with expectations, and net profit was slightly above estimates [5]. - The company announced an acquisition of BioDlink to enhance capacity expansion [7]. Pharmaron - FY25 preliminary revenue was at the upper end of guidance, with adjusted net profit slightly above expectations [6]. - The company expects faster revenue growth in FY26, supported by its integrated model [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cyclical sectors and anticipates a strong growth trajectory for the S&P 500 index, targeting a level of 7,600 points by 2026 with a total return rate of 12% [1][3]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 index is expected to achieve a total return of 18% in 2025, driven primarily by earnings growth, with a projected 12% earnings growth leading to an EPS target of $305 [3]. - The report highlights the importance of healthy economic fundamentals, strong profitability of large-cap stocks, and the incremental profits from AI applications as key drivers of market performance [1][3]. - Despite high current market valuations, the report argues that high-profitability stocks deserve higher valuations, and there are no significant signs of speculative bubbles [1][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at nearly 3% this year, with a slight slowdown expected in the second half of the year [3][6]. - The report emphasizes that while there may be fluctuations due to interest rate changes, the overall economic cycle is unlikely to end soon [5][6]. Market Valuation - Current market valuations are high, but the report suggests that this is not a barrier to future performance, as high-profitability stocks are justified in their valuations [4][7]. - The concentration risk in the market is deemed manageable, with the top ten stocks accounting for 31% of earnings, and their valuations, while above average, remain below historical peaks [7]. Sector Recommendations - The cyclical sectors are expected to benefit from favorable economic conditions, with particular attention on the middle-income consumer segment and non-residential construction [1][8]. - The report suggests that healthcare and consumer staples are undervalued and recommends allocating defensive assets to balance risk [2][11]. AI and Capital Expenditure - AI-related transactions are anticipated to continue evolving, with significant capital expenditures expected to rise to approximately $540 billion in 2026, despite a slowdown in growth rate [9][10]. - The report categorizes AI-related investments into four stages, highlighting the potential for differentiation among companies within the AI space [9]. Specific Investment Strategies - The report outlines three specific investment strategies: focusing on companies that have demonstrated AI productivity gains, targeting cyclical sectors benefiting from infrastructure investments, and identifying consumer companies likely to benefit from tax refund spending [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight position in equities while maintaining neutral allocations in bonds, commodities, and cash, with a low allocation to credit [2] Core Insights - Despite high market valuations, macro fundamentals are expected to support the current levels, and high valuations alone do not constitute a bearish signal [3] - Economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be diversified, driven by fiscal policy, regulatory easing, and AI penetration, while political and geopolitical risks should be monitored [4] - The importance of diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in the late economic cycle, with a recommendation for alternative strategies and diverse investment styles [5][6] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The macro outlook for 2026 is positive, with strong performance expected in the first half, but potential slowdown in the second half. Growth will be more diversified, supported by fiscal policy and AI integration [4] Market Valuation - Current valuations are high, with the S&P Shiller PE ratio at its highest level since the tech bubble, but macro factors support these valuations, indicating that high valuations alone do not signal a market downturn [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for early 2026 favors risk assets, particularly equities, while maintaining neutral positions in bonds and commodities. Credit is underweighted due to low credit spreads [2] - The report highlights the need for selective and cautious approaches in spread trading and credit investments, recommending an overweight in equities to navigate the current economic environment [7] Sector and Regional Trends - Different regions are driven by various factors, with the U.S. led by technology, while value stocks are recovering in Europe. The report notes a balanced dynamic across sectors, creating opportunities for alpha generation [8] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to see a divergence in returns, with gold projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel [18]