高盛闭门会-美股互联网财报季要点，ai 担忧云计算再加速， 首选 metaai 颠覆错杀游戏股 20260212 2026-02-12 摘要 数字广告和云计算领域表现强劲，缓解了投资者对 AI 资本开支回报的担 忧，Meta 略有盈余，Alphabet 保持可观盈余，但亚马逊预计在 2026- 2027 年将出现亏损，促使投资者考虑更长期的自由现金流估值。 亚马逊虽开局强劲，但营业利润指引和资本支出强度令投资者措手不及， AWS 增速低于谷歌云，积压订单增速也远低于谷歌云，导致投资者重新 评估对 Alphabet 的投资。 广告行业正朝着人工智能和机器学习驱动的方向发展，少数头部企业如 亚马逊、Meta 和 Alphabet 从中受益，Meta 在 AI 领域的新增长支柱 及其核心广告业务的 AI 应用杠杆效应，使其成为风险收益比最具吸引力 的标的。 预计科技企业资本密集度峰值将在 2025-2027 年出现，但投资者对这 些支出的回报情况仍存疑虑，未来六个月内，市场将更关注产能支持、 半导体行业格局和数据中心建设等因素。 Q&A 投资者对不断攀升的资本支出预期有何看法？他们需要看到什么，才会对这些 预期更有 ...

高盛发布研报称，维持中芯国际(70.05,0.05,0.07%)(00981)"买入"评级，予中芯国际H股目标价134港 元，相当于预测2028年市盈率71.6倍，予中芯国际(688981.SH)A股目标价241.6元人民币(估H股估值有溢价 196%)，对公司的长期增长持正面看法，由本土无晶圆厂客户需求增长及AI机遇所推动。 中芯去年第四季收入按季升4%至25亿美元，较该行及市场预期高3%，并高于管理层指引的0%至2%增长。期 内毛利率19%，符合管理层指引的18%至20%，亦大致符合该行及市场预期。收入增长主要因晶圆出货量及平均 售价按季升1%，而毛利率相比上季的22%有所下降，主要因折旧及摊销费用增加。 管理层指引今年首季收入将按季持平，与该行预期的2%增长及市场预期的持平大致相符。首季毛利率指引 维持18%至20%，略低于该行预期的21.7%及市场预期的20.9%。针对今年全年，中芯管理层预期收入增长将高于 可比同业的平均水平，资本支出同比持平；该行认为指引有上行空间。 中芯国际(00981):维持"买入"评级,目标价134港元 美国高盛 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese economy, with expected GDP growth targets adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5% for 2026, reflecting a conservative approach to fiscal policy and economic expectations [1][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is experiencing uneven growth, with exports and manufacturing growth exceeding 5%, while the real estate sector is significantly declining, indicating a structural economic transition towards technology innovation [1][3]. - Local government meetings have revealed a downward adjustment in growth targets for 2026, with a weighted average decrease from 5.3% to 5.1%, suggesting a cautious outlook across most provinces [5][6]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is about 4% for 2026, which is higher than the market's implied rate of 2.5%, but the negative impacts on exports and inflation are expected to be limited [1][9][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Expectations - The expected GDP growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with an inflation target maintained at around 2% [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at approximately 4% of GDP, with special government bond issuance expected to be consistent with the previous year [7]. Local Government Insights - A majority of provinces have lowered their growth targets, with 21 out of 31 provinces adjusting their goals downwards, indicating a collective preparation for a more cautious economic environment [5][6]. - Core provinces like Beijing and Shanghai have maintained their growth targets around 5%, while Guangdong has adjusted its target down to 4.5%-5% [5]. Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate by about 4% in 2026, which may lead to increased export prices and reduced import prices, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures [11][13]. - CPI is projected to decrease to 0.3% year-on-year in January 2026, while PPI is expected to be -1.4%, indicating a need to monitor manufacturing cost-driven inflation [16]. Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, despite significant sell-offs by state-owned entities, with retail investor sentiment remaining high [17]. - There has been a strong inflow of capital from southbound investments, with net purchases reaching $16 billion, indicating robust interest in Hong Kong stocks [18]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to reach a bottom within at least 12 months, with current policy support deemed insufficient to stimulate demand effectively [29].

美国高盛 高盛发布研报称，中国移动(78.45,-1.75,-2.18%)(00941)目前估值处于合理水平。目标价从105港元下调 至88港元，评级从"买入"下调至"中性"。若未来出现以下情况，对该股看法将转为更乐观，包括5G用户 ARPU改善、创新业务增长超预期，或6G电信服务商用进展快于预期。 该行对中国移动从传统电信服务向创新业务的拓展保持正面看法，然而5G电信服务增长持续放缓，根据最 新数据，2025年12月中国行业新增5G基站数量较该行预估低8,000个，该行预计2026年及2027年新增5G基站数 将分别同比下降8%及7%，达到54万个及50万个。在创新业务方面，该行预期未来将持续实现增长，主要受超大 规模算力持续扩张，以及AI生态覆盖的支持。 中国移动(00941):降评级至"中性",目标价降至88港元 ...

高盛相信，信达生物将继续保持其在中国生物技术领域的领先地位，主要得益于拥有大量针对下一代免疫 肿瘤靶点的新型分子，并已获得令人鼓舞的初步数据(如IBI363(PD-1/IL-2α偏向性双特异性抗体)，在免疫治 疗/冷肿瘤中具有差异化的药物特性；强大的商业化能力及与全球合作伙伴，特别是礼来公司的深度合作等。 信达生物(01801):与礼来(LLY.US)深化长期合作关系料被低估,予"买入"评级 高盛发布研报称，信达生物(85.25,5.75,7.23%)(01801)昨日(8日)宣布与礼来(LLY.US)美元的里程碑付 款；及基于中国以外地区净销售额的分级销售特许权使用费。高盛考虑到当前市场隐含的加权平均资本成本 (12%)较高，认为其目前股价被低估；予该股"买入"评级；基于风险调整后、现金流量折现法，予目标价 102.85港元。 美国高盛 ...

美图公司(01357):首次覆盖予"买入"评级,目标价16港元 高盛指出，生成式人工智能已驱动美图从一款"美化工具"升级为"AI照片与影片生成及编辑应用程 式"，将其市场从消费者娱乐，拓展至企业(如电子商务、广告)等具生产力工具，从而推动月活跃用户数、付 费比率及每用户平均收入(ARPU)增长。 高盛又预测美图2025至2030年营收年均复合增长率为29%，至2030年预计企业/生产力营收占比将升至 44%(对比2025年预期的12%)；全球AI影片与图像创意市场规模将在2025至2030年预测以44%的年均复合增长率 增至390亿美元，美图的全球AI影片/图像市占率预计将在2030年预计分别上升至2%、17%(对比2025年预期的 1%、13%)。 美国高盛 高盛发布研报称，首次覆盖美图公司(6.55,0.31,4.97%)(01357)，予"买入"评级，目标价16港元，相当 于预测2027年市盈率33.1倍，对比2027至2028年预期净利润平均同比增约44%；营运利润率预计从2025年上半 年的21%上升至2028年预测的34%。 ...

Q&A 请分析 2025 年 11 月以来铜价和铝价上涨的驱动因素，并预测 2026 年第二 季度的价格走势。 高盛闭门会-上调 H1 铝价到 3150 但长期供应可能过剩， 铜受益于宏观和结构性短缺 20260205 摘要 预计未来有 50 个基点的降息空间，美国关税拖累效应减弱，财政扩张 显著影响市场，预计 2026 上半年美国消费者将获约 1,000 亿美元退税， 企业受益于厂房设备全额费用化政策，资本开支回暖，风险偏好维持高 位。 AI 资本开支推动铜需求转向国防、人工智能、电气化及电网建设等周期 性行业，占据 40%以上铜需求增长来源。降息预期、财政扩张及 AI 资 本开支热潮推动超 300 亿美元资金流入基本金属领域。 预测 2026 年一季度铜价为 13,000 美元/吨，二季度为 12,500 美元/吨。 美国经济稳健增长，美元走弱，支撑市场风险偏好。美国持续从全球吸 纳铜，库存增加趋势将在下半年消退，宏观环境仍具支撑性。 美国 232 条款中的铜关税政策是 2025 年上半年市场的重要因素，预计 2026 年中将重新评估精炼铜关税，或宣布 15%关税，2027 年生效。 预计美国年底累积 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil shipping industry, particularly for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) and crude oil transportation, anticipating a super cycle driven by geopolitical factors and sanctions on shadow tankers [1]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply is expected to stagnate in 2024, but will see an increase of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day from non-OPEC countries starting mid-2025, followed by OPEC countries joining the production increase [1][4]. - Geopolitical factors significantly impact the tanker market, with issues such as U.S.-China port fee disputes leading to vessel delays and increased demand asymmetry [2][5]. - China plays a crucial role in global oil reserves, with an expected addition of at least 100 million barrels of storage capacity by mid-2026, which will boost demand for mainstream raw material imports and vessels [1][6]. - High refining margins are prompting regions like the Middle East, India, Japan, and South Korea to activate idle capacities, with a projected net increase of 1 million barrels per day in refining capacity by 2026 [1][8]. - The global oil supply-demand outlook shows uncertainty, with an expected daily surplus of around 1 million barrels in 2026, potentially lasting into 2027 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Current Oil Tanker Market Drivers - Key drivers include the growth in crude oil production and exports, increased transportation distances, and geopolitical factors affecting demand [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil tanker market is characterized by a complex supply-demand situation, with supply growth expected at 3% in 2026, but actual growth at only 2% due to aging fleets [3][10]. - Demand is projected to grow by 6% in 2026, with a slight decrease in growth rate expected in 2027 [10]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical events, such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil, could shift demand from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets, positively impacting VLCC demand [11][12]. Regional Inventory Behaviors - Japan and South Korea are critical regions, with significant increases in crude oil imports, which will impact global oil demand [13]. Clean vs. Dirty Transportation Analysis - The clean and dirty transportation sectors are highly interchangeable, with expected growth rates of 5% to 5.8% for dirty transportation and 2.1% for clean transportation [14].

全球思考：⾼盛顶级交易员提出"两万亿美元的问 题" BY TYLER DURDEN SUNDAY,FEB 08,2026-07:05 AM 上周五⻩⾦/⽩银的回调是本周戏剧性主题和因⼦波动的前兆，这让⼈想起10⽉加密货币清算的后 果，那次清算导致了10⽉中旬⾄11⽉的⼤规模回调。 ⾼盛顶级交易员路易斯·⽶勒指出，与当时类似，势头有所摇摆，但并未中断。 鉴于动量⻓仓的盈利预期上调，在关注波动性的同时，应逢⼤幅回调买⼊。 2026/2/9 14:56 Global Reflections: Top Goldman Trader Asks The 'Two Trillion Dollar Question' | ZeroHedge ⻛险价值冲击确实留下了印记。 ⽬前，许多主题的10天实际波动率处于2010年以来的第99百分位，其中包括： ⾼⻉塔动量 （ GSPRHIMO 指数）、 AI 赢家与⻛险（ GSPUARTI 指数）、质量（ GSPUQUAL 指数） ，还有许多其 他主题也紧随其后： 软件与半导体（ GSPUSOSE 指数，第 97 百分位）、周期性股与防御性股 （ GSPUCYDE 指数，第 94 百分位 ...

2026/2/9 15:09 "What A Week!" - Goldman's Top Tech Trader Says 'Dispersion Remains The Name Of The Game' | ZeroHedge "多么精彩的⼀周！"——⾼盛顶级科技交易员称"分 化仍是游戏的核⼼" BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY,FEB 09,2026-08:15 AM "多么糟糕的⼀周啊……"这是⾼盛顶级科技交易员彼得·卡拉汉今天在给客⼾的报告中开头所说的 话。此前，市场经历了近期历史上最为动荡的⼏天——即便从指数层⾯来看，最终结果只是"平平 ⽆奇"…… 可以这么说，上周就是这样的⼀周：周五的收盘铃声（波动率指数为17点左右，标普500指数全周 仅下跌0.1%）很难展现出⼜⼀个忙碌交易周的全貌，⽽我们也结束了今年紧张的前25个交易⽇。 （即：今年表现波动且交易量上升） https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-week-goldmans-top-tech-trader-says-dispersion-remains-name-game 1/8 周⼆、周三 ...