8 April 2025 | 9:32PM HKT China: Incremental GDP impact from potentially another 50% Trump tariff Bottom line: China's retaliatory tariff of 34% on US goods, a response to US "reciprocal" tariffs, triggered a threat from President Trump to impose an additional 50% tariff if China does not withdraw its retaliatory tariff. Further statements from the Chinese government point to escalating trade tensions. Our analysis suggests an initial 50% tariff (which is roughly how much President Trump has imposed on Chin ...

7 April 2025 | 11:00PM EDT Oil Comment: How Low Could Oil Prices Go? Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Callum Bruce, CFA +1(212)902-3053 | callum.bruce@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC ce ...

8 April 2025 | 10:35PM HKT China Consumer Pulse check: Signs of bottoming out in 4Q24 but outlook still prudent; policy/tariff to be watched While we are yet to see meaningful rebound and volatility remains in the recovery path, there has been signs of bottoming out since 4Q24 with sequential growth improvement (average 14% vs. 7% in 3Q24 for reported sales, with easier base) and post CNY holiday consumption pull back has been better than feared. Post intensified price competition in past two years, from 2H ...

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY RESEARCH 8 April 2025 | 5:00AM BST GLOBAL STRATEGY PAPER NO. 71 Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 peter.oppenheimer@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Sharon Bell +44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lilia Peytavin +33(1)4212-1716 lilia.peytavin@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch Guillaume Jaisson +44(20)7552-3000 guillaume.jaisson@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should con ...

8 April 2025 | 6:31PM EDT Global Markets Comment: After the Tariffs—Still Room to Price Recession (Wilson/Chang) Dominic Wilson +1(212)902-5924 | dominic.wilson@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Vickie Chang +1(212)902-6915 | vickie.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bc ...

8 April 2025 | 2:22AM BST Global Markets Daily: Tariffs and the Dollar: Why We Flipped Our View Tariffs and the Dollar: Why We Flipped Our View We have made a major shift in our Dollar view after seeing the developments of the last few weeks and rethinking the likely implications of these policy changes. We now expect recent Dollar weakness to persist, particularly in DXY terms. This change reflects a number of related factors, but the common thread is that the exceptional positioning that has supported the ...

7 April 2025 | 6:30AM BST GOAL Kickstart Risk Appetite collapse - dissecting the sell-off post the US tariff announcement Last week, President Trump announced a "reciprocal" tariff policy with an average tariff rate of 18.2%. Chinese policymakers replied with a broad set of countermeasures including a 34pp tariff increase on all US exports. The EU Foreign Council on Trade is likely to present a comprehensive response to US tariffs, too. The market reaction to the US reciprocal tariff has been sharp. The S&P ...

7 April 2025 | 6:00AM CEST Around the world in 80 charts Trade war impacts Positive Q1 trade volume growth, set to decline from here Q1 freight volume data remained fairly strong, with Ocean volumes up c.5% on our readings for Jan/Feb, and China port volumes up 10%yoy, while air cargo is up low single digits following a strong Q4 peak. However, we believe a lot of this reflects frontloading of US imports as we have highlighted in prior editions. As US tariff increases are set to take effect in April (and po ...

2025年4月6日 | 9:03AM HKT 大中华区科技: 关税 - 下调30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格 美国总统特朗普于4月2日签署行政令，对180多个国家加征10%至50%的额外关税 （新闻链接，高盛宏观经济研究报告）。我们预计成本上升可能导致：(1) 需求走弱： 品牌客户通过提高售价将关税转嫁给终端消费者，导致出货量或收入下降；(2) 利润率 承压：品牌客户从其他方面节省成本，致使产品规格升级放缓（这也可能导致需求走 弱）或挤压供应链利润率。我们分析了所覆盖企业，并将30家企业的盈利预测下调了 0.1%至9%，将目标价下调了0.2%至9%，从而反映关税影响。 关税对不同产品板块的影响： 在本报告中，我们重点列出了大中华区科技企业的美国业务收入占比（图表 1）、各 地区产能分布（图表 1）以及30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格调整。更多分析请参见 报告：GC Tech: Tariffs announced on Mexico/ China /Canada。 盈利预测调整框架：(1) 美国终端市场占比：我们估测每家企业最终产品在美国市场上 的收入占比：AI服务器供应链、美国品牌（如苹果、惠普、戴尔）和低地球轨 ...

摘要 问答 高盛：美国关税对亚洲经济的影响：增长、通胀和市场反应 20250403 白宫最近宣布征收关税将对亚洲产生哪些广泛影响？ 白宫最近宣布的关税是近一个世纪以来关税的最大幅度增长，从亚洲的角度来 看，情况比预期的要糟糕。除了遵守与加拿大和墨西哥签署的 USMCA 贸易协定 的国家外，美国政府将对所有国家征收 10% 的关税。此外，关税将根据外国对 美国的贸易顺差计算，这意味着顺差越大，关税就越高。与其他地区相比，亚 洲经济体往往对美国拥有巨大的贸易顺差，因此这些关税对亚洲经济体的打击 更大。虽然大多数人预计关税范围可能在 10-20%，但加拿大和墨西哥面临的关 税低于预期，合规贸易实际上为零。按美国进口加权后，新的平均关税税率增 加了 18.3%，但由于产品排除，实际税率可能在 12.6% 左右。钢铁、铝、汽车、 半导体和药品等某些产品类别有特定的现有关税或即将实施的关税，不会立即 受到这一新公告的影响。例如，中国在今年早些时候已经征收了 20% 的关税， 现在又面临额外的关税。总而言之，除加拿大和墨西哥外，所有国家的关税下 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海 ...