2025/12/17 15:21 ⾼盛：2025 年 15 个最引⼈关注的辩论（很可能延续到 2026 年）| ZeroHedge ⾼盛：2025 年 15 个最引⼈关注的辩论（这些辩论很 可能延续到 2026 年） 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉17⽇，星期三，上午10:20 ⾼盛的迪奥尼·埃利尼卡基提出了这15 个主题（和图表），突出了 2025 年⼀些最突出的辩论（所有 这些都可能延续到 2026 年）。 这些图表⼤多来⾃⾼盛的深度专题研究，专业订阅⽤⼾可以在我们全新的 MarketDesk.ai ⻔⼾⽹ 站上找到这些研究成果…… 1/ ⼈⼯智能资本⽀出 今年，我们阅读量最⾼的科研报告是彼得·奥本海默的《为什么我们还没有陷⼊泡沫……》。 2/⼈⼯智能应⽤ https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-15-most-prominent-debates-2025-which-are-likely-carry-2026 1/13 2025/12/17 15:21 ⾼盛：2025 年 15 个最引⼈关注的辩论（很可能延续到 2026 年）| ZeroHedge ……除了关于 ...

2025/12/17 15:10 ⾼盛对冲基⾦主管分享"市场历史中的⼀些经验教训" | ZeroHedge ⾼盛对冲基⾦主管分享"市场历史中的⼀些经验教 训" 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉17⽇，星期三 - 上午5:40 随着流动性下降、交易量萎靡不振、新闻发布放缓（据称），⾼盛对冲基⾦主管托尼·帕斯夸⾥洛分 享了他近年来收集的⼀系列市场短期数据，阐述了他的⻅解。 有些是全新的，有些是经久耐⽤的⽼牌产品，值得进⾏市价评估。 ⾸先要说明⼏点： ⼀、与上周的图表⼯作类似，这不是对 2025 年的回顾 —— ⽽是⼀系列本质上更具基础 性的观察。 ii. 由于我的地理位置和结构性机遇，这严重偏向美国。 iii. 从过去的笔记中复制粘贴：虽然游戏从来都不容易，但今年乐观主义再次得到了回 报，这种偏⻅贯穿于以下许多内容中。 1.⾃ 1945 年以来，标普 500 指数的年均总回报率为 +13%。 此外，79% 的年份都实现了正回 报。这⼀点总是让我印象深刻——尽管平均值可能具有很强的欺骗性，但在任何⼀年中，你都有五 分之四的概率在股市中获利。值得注意的是，年初⾄今的总回报率为 +17%，位列第 56 个百分 位。 数据来 ...

泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉15⽇，星期⼀，晚上8:48 股市⼜经历了⼀周的过⼭⻋⾏情，标普500指数周五收跌1%，从前⼀⽇创下的历史新⾼跌⾄6827 点。尽管收盘时市场买盘规模⾼达30亿美元（很可能是由于CTA机构在任何情况下都持仓买⼊）， 但标普500指数依然下跌。其他指数表现更差：纳斯达克指数下跌191个基点，收于25196点，原 因是AVGO和ORCL两家公司的股价均因⼈⼯智能⽀出担忧加剧⽽暴跌；罗素2000指数下跌146个 基点，收于2552点；道琼斯指数表现最佳，仅下跌50个基点，收于48458点。 2025/12/17 15:21 ⾼盛分析："表⾯之下的强劲轮动令许多投资组合感到震惊" | ZeroHedge ⾼盛分析："表⾯之下的强劲轮动给许多投资组合带 来了冲击" 如上所述，动能再次⼤幅下跌，主要受AVGO（-12%）和ORCL（-4.5%）的拖累。资⾦流动主要 由宏观因素驱动，追踪宏观股票的ETF占总交易量的36%（年初⾄今平均⽔平为28%），对冲基⾦ 再次利⽤宏观产品对冲空头⻛险。以下是⾼盛对市场为何再次对⼈⼯智能感到失望的分析： 经过两周的强劲上涨后，今⽇市场明显回落，⼤多数⼈⼯智能股 ...

2026 年工业行业的整体前景如何？有哪些主要趋势值得关注？ 高盛：2026 年美国工业与材料行业展望 20251217 摘要 预计 2026 年数据中心资本支出增速虽放缓至 36%，但仍利好 Flex、Jabil 等公司盈利，安费诺和 TE 连接等供应链企业也将持续表现 出色，这些公司具备较高利润率和自由现金流，能更好应对市场波动。 航空航天领域供给仍低于需求，波音和空客预计明年生产和交付量将继 续好转，带动供应链发展。伍德沃德在航空航天原设备、售后市场及数 据中心建设领域均有机会超越工业领域表现。 国防领域，看好完全依赖美国海军造船业的 HII 和 LHX，后者受益于固 体火箭发动机和金色穹顶业务。联邦 IT 行业由于政府重新编程和支出需 多年实现，因此保持谨慎态度。 预计 2026 年航空公司单位收益将略低于 3%，运力同比增幅略低于 4%，经济舱座位供给实际下降。达美航空和联合航空等表现最佳的股票 仍具备良好的投资价值。 废物管理行业预计 2026 年有机增长将在中个位数范围，定价调整和垃 圾填埋气投资抵消回收价格下降和负体积影响。目前估值低于历史平均 水平 5 个百分点，有机增长加速可见性增强，是一 ...

高盛闭门会-2026 全球金属铜锂铝展望，最看好铜看跌铝 锂短期紧张 20251217 摘要 预计 2026 年铜价年均将达到 10,650 美元，受废料供应增长放缓和全 球需求增长的推动。美国关税政策若明确，将抑制库存积累，使价格稳 定在 10,500-11,000 美元区间；反之，美国库存增加将加剧全球市场 紧张，每增加 10 万吨库存，价格预测将上升 2 美元。 人工智能数据中心是铜需求的重要增长点，预计到 2025 年将占总需求 增长的 26%，但仅占总需求的 1%。电力需求上升可能推动电网投资和 能源储存，带来铜需求的上行潜力。 中国铜需求近期疲软，尽管房地产市场有稳定迹象，但第四季度需求明 显下降，可能持续到 2026 年。转向服务业刺激政策是最大的下行风险， 可能削弱铜需求复苏。 铜价高位可能促使部分应用转向替代品，如铝，但由于铝相对于钢铁更 昂贵，这种替代效应对铝的益处小于对铜的负面影响，尤其是在美国等 关键市场。 Q&A 2025 年全球铜市场的供需情况如何，未来价格走势如何？ 2025 年全球铜市场出现了较大的供给过剩，尽管矿产供应有所中断，但废料 供应同比增长超过 5%，增加了 60 万 ...

高盛闭门会-2026 美股互联网展望，ai 继续深化广告电商 边界模糊，meta 谷歌亚马逊 uber20251217 摘要 人工智能发展聚焦于 ChatGPT、Gemini 等应用，Alphabet 积极拓展 消费者和企业市场，月活用户和使用时长显著增长，未来需关注这些增 长对消费者行为（购物、旅行、网络互动）的改变。 广告与电商界限日益模糊，广告更趋向效果导向。亚马逊、 DoorDash、Uber 等发展为零售媒体网络，TikTok 商城值得关注。本 地商业竞争加剧，平台与 Instacart、DoorDash 合作转型为本地商业 公司。 互动娱乐内容日益多样化，包括专业内容、AI 生成内容和创作者经济内 容。Spotify、Netflix 等平台不断拓展内容种类，以适应消费者需求变 化，构建丰富的内容库。 空间计算是未来 5-10 年的重要主题，Meta、谷歌、三星、苹果等公司 积极布局。虽然目前手机仍是主流，但可穿戴设备、空间音频耳机等将 逐渐融合，大量资本涌入，健康和福祉领域潜力巨大。 Q&A 投资者应如何看待未来一年互联网生态系统的关键争论、焦点和催化剂？ 未来一年，互联网生态系统的核心主题将围绕 ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated positively, with a strong outlook for AI-related sectors, commercial silicon, and custom silicon [7][9]. Core Insights - The AI server market is expected to see significant growth, with shipments of full-rack AI servers projected between 16,000 and 100,000 units by 2026 [1][2]. - DRAM supply chain outlook is optimistic, while NAND supply chain remains cautious due to tight supply conditions leading to price increases of 25-30% for raw materials in PCs and smartphones [1][3]. - Broadcom is performing well in both commercial and custom silicon sectors, with a positive outlook for 2026 despite recent stock price adjustments [4][7]. - The optical networking sector is crucial for efficient connections between processors in AI data centers, with the optical transceiver market expected to reach $30 billion by 2026 [5][6]. AI Supply Chain Insights - The AI supply chain shows strong growth potential, with capital expenditures from the top five hyperscale data centers expected to increase by 35% [2][14]. - DRAM demand is particularly strong for high bandwidth memory (HBM), which is driving price increases due to supply constraints [2][6]. - Semiconductor capital equipment spending is forecasted to grow by 11% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, benefiting from changes in global redundant production [9][10]. Company-Specific Insights - Broadcom is viewed positively in the semiconductor cycle, with expectations of continued strong performance [4][7]. - Application Materials is expected to perform well in DRAM and advanced logic chip foundry sectors, with a positive outlook for 2026 [11][12]. - Teradyne has been upgraded to a buy rating due to anticipated new orders in video-related business [11]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards custom chips, with significant contributions from companies like Google and NVIDIA [1][4]. - The optical networking market is transitioning to higher speeds, which is driving growth across the supply chain [5][6]. - The overall semiconductor capital equipment sector is expected to see strong growth due to memory chip demand driven by DRAM shortages [10][12]. Future Trends - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is characterized by strong cyclical growth, with potential for exceeding previous forecasts in 2026 and 2027 [10][11]. - The NAND flash market is under pressure due to supply constraints, with no new capacity expected in 2026 [12][13]. - The AI market is heavily influenced by large enterprises, which account for 80% of the market, while smaller companies face funding challenges [14][15][16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the financial services industry, particularly for regional banks and consumer credit companies, with expectations of loan growth and improved profitability in 2026 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to outperform expectations, with stable credit quality for consumers and businesses, and a continued positive trend in commercial loan growth [1][2]. - Capital markets are optimistic about a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and equity financing, especially in the financial sponsorship sector [1][3][7]. - Consumer credit companies are showing strong performance, with positive spending trends and expectations for continued loan growth into 2026 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - Regional banks are projected to have a strong performance in 2026, with significant increases in corporate and industrial loan pipelines, some banks expecting loan growth of 9%-11% [1][4]. - Many banks are progressing towards mid-term net interest margin targets through asset repricing and funding adjustments, enhancing profitability [4]. - Credit indicators are stable or improving, with several banks announcing new capital repurchase plans, indicating a favorable year for capital returns in 2026 [4]. Consumer Credit Companies - Companies like American Express and Synchrony are reporting better-than-expected consumer spending updates, with a positive outlook for loan growth in 2026 [5]. - Overall loss rates remain above average, but delinquency and charge-off rates have significantly decreased year-over-year [6]. Capital Markets - There is a strong and improving M&A environment, with strategic and large transactions remaining robust, driven by a favorable regulatory environment and strong corporate balance sheets [3][7]. - The IPO market is showing positive trends, with expectations for continued improvement as market conditions stabilize [8]. Asset Management - The asset management industry is expected to see a divergence in management fee income growth, with some firms like Ares and TPG projected to grow faster than others [12]. - Fixed income market sentiment is optimistic, benefiting from lower interest rates and tight credit spreads [12]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is generally in good shape but facing a broad slowdown, with investment returns expected to remain in the mid-to-high single digits [13]. - Pricing confidence has decreased, particularly in property insurance, while accident insurance categories are expected to maintain current price increases [13][14]. Innovations in Financial Services - The Genius Act for stablecoin legislation is expected to enhance market structure and efficiency in the cryptocurrency space, with optimism around tokenization of physical assets [15]. - AI adoption across major banks is anticipated to significantly improve productivity and operational efficiency over the next several years [15].

高盛：中美科技竞争 20251215 摘要 美国在高端蓝图设计上保持优势，而中国在技术应用和数字基础设施建 设方面迅速追赶，尤其在机器人应用和电子工程人才培养方面，中国已 超越美国。 美国出口管制加速了中国芯片国产化进程，但未能完全遏制其技术进步。 中国正通过使用低端芯片和获取部分技术使用权来应对限制。 中国对稀土资源的控制构成潜在风险，美国需加强稀土开采投资，并寻 求与澳大利亚、加拿大等盟友合作，以确保供应链安全。 美国需增加科研经费投入，吸引全球人才，并确保技术发展符合其价值 观和标准。能源产能扩张，特别是可再生能源和核能，对支持数据增长 和计算能力至关重要。 政府资金支持有助于稳定矿产资源供应，但需确保可持续生产价格水平。 对半导体企业的股权干预可能阻碍其全球竞争力提升。 中国需保持对关键领域有目标的投入，积极开拓全球南方市场，并大力 支持本地芯片制造业，同时赢得国际信任。 美国在 AI 竞赛中保持领先依赖于规模化投入 GPU 和计算能力，但中国 能否克服硬件瓶颈将是关键。中国工程师人才储备和政府支持将发挥重 要作用。 Q&A 美中科技竞赛的核心因素是什么？目前谁在这场竞争中处于领先地位？ 科技在美中战 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the S&P 500 index, predicting it will reach 7600 points by 2026, driven by economic growth and artificial intelligence applications [1][15]. Core Insights - Strong earnings growth is expected to be the main driver for the S&P 500 index's rise, with a projected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12% in 2026, reaching $305, and 10% in 2027, reaching $336 [5][18]. - The report highlights that the largest seven stocks in the S&P 500 (NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, AVGO, META) will contribute significantly to the index's earnings growth, accounting for 46% of the EPS growth by 2026 [9][11]. - The application of artificial intelligence is anticipated to enhance productivity, contributing an additional 0.4% to EPS growth in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 [15][24]. Summary by Sections Earnings Growth - The S&P 500 index is expected to see a sales growth of 7% in 2026, with profit margins projected to expand to 12.8% [18]. - The report indicates that the recent decline in net buyback yield will slightly hinder EPS growth relative to earnings growth [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that large companies are experiencing above-average sales growth and profit margins, which positively impacts the overall profit margins of the S&P 500 index [13]. - Concerns regarding input costs and pricing dynamics are highlighted, with recent surveys indicating potential downward risks to profit margins [21][23]. Artificial Intelligence Impact - The report emphasizes that the adoption of artificial intelligence is still in its early stages, but large companies are making more progress compared to smaller firms [17]. - The anticipated steady growth in productivity, partly due to AI applications, is expected to support significant improvements in corporate profit margins [24].