"波动"已结束；⾼盛资⾦流动专家称"今年的圣诞反 弹仍将上演" BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY, NOV 11,2025-03:40 AM 我们常听到"摇摆不定"这种说法，但⾼盛的资⾦流动专家们更倾向于将其视为⼀种调整。 基本⾯⽅⾯具有挑战性的新闻标题和动态催⽣了⼀个短暂的轮动与重新评估窗⼝，但正如顶级交易 员盖尔·哈菲夫、布莱恩·加勒特和李·科珀史密斯所指出的那样，资⾦流向对美国股市仍保持积极态 势。 该团队在下⽂分析了导致上周抛售的⼀些因素，但最终强调了这些因素的短暂性。 2025/11/11 09:56 The 'Wobble' Is Over; Goldman Flows Gurus Say 'Santa Rally Still On For This Year' | ZeroHedge 2025/11/11 09:56 The 'Wobble' Is Over; Goldman Flows Gurus Say 'Santa Rally Still On For This Year' | ZeroHedge 来源：⾼盛 企业正全⾯开启回购模式，为股票提供持续的⽇常需求。 强劲的季节性窗 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades India's stock market rating to "Overweight" (OW) due to supportive economic growth policies, earnings recovery, and reasonable valuations [24]. Core Insights - The artificial intelligence cycle is still in its early stages, with institutional positions not fully allocated, and capital flows are expected to become favorable before year-end [5][6]. - The report suggests that the stock market has a potential upside of 5-10% before the end of the year, driven by broad market participation [6]. - Concerns about credit markets are impacting alternative asset management stocks, particularly those with significant private credit exposure, but the overall impact on the credit market remains limited [21]. - The report highlights the significant investment opportunities in the electricity and water sectors due to increasing demand and aging infrastructure [18]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that the current market volatility is typical for this time of year, rather than abnormal [1][19]. - There is a comparison of the current NDX with past technology bubbles, indicating that while some characteristics are similar, the current valuations are still below historical peaks [10][11]. Economic Indicators - The report estimates that AI investments will create $20 trillion in GDP economic value, with $8 trillion flowing into U.S. companies as capital income [13]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of potential salary cuts in December [31]. Emerging Markets - India's stock market has underperformed compared to other emerging markets, but recent trends suggest a potential recovery driven by earnings and foreign investment [23][24]. - The report indicates that emerging markets have seen strong performance overall, with a 30% increase this year, while India's market has only seen a 3% increase [23]. Consumer Behavior - There are signs of cracks in the U.S. consumer market, with hedge funds reducing their holdings in consumer service stocks to a five-year low [26]. - The report discusses the impact of inflation and economic conditions on different income groups, suggesting a mixed outlook for consumer spending [28][29].

3 November 2025 | 3:08PM EST Economics Research Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: China Real GDP Growth Above Consensus Following Forecast Upgrades Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Chart of the Week Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sara ...

高盛：深入了解关税和政府停摆 20251107 数据以及餐饮和消费品股票 52 周新低中可以看出。这种情绪反馈到市场上， 因为尽管机构投资者头寸有所收紧，但散户投资者仍然非常乐观，目前我们正 处于可能触发一些 CTA 止损水平。 最近几周，我们看到一些重要股票波动率上升、价格上涨和隐含波动率倒挂现 象，但美联储最新政策决定给市场带来意外影响。同时，大多数公司业绩超预 期，你如何看待这种情况？ 确实，美联储最新政策决定给市场带来了一些意外因素。但总体来看，大多数 公司业绩超出了预期，有超过 2/3 公司的业绩超出预期一个标准差以上。然而， 这些公司在单日基础上的表现低于标准普尔指数，但从长期平均来看，其表现 则超出约 100 个基点。这反映了客户头寸状况，我注意到客户总体头寸水平非 常高，我们全年 Prime 数据都显示总头寸曲线一直在直线上升。有时我都怀疑 客户是否真的会如此高度杠杆化。目前，人们热衷于做多人工智能相关股票， 同时做空任何与消费者相关的股票，比如零售业。在这种环境下，一些热门零 售股、高贝塔动量股和近期赢家出现大幅回调，而半导体股票如英伟达也出现 大幅反转。 最高法院审理 AEBA 关税案，如 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Damai Entertainment Holdings (1060.HK) with a target price of HK$1.30, representing an upside of 38.3% from the current price of HK$0.94 [1][4][20]. Core Insights - Damai Entertainment announced a positive profit alert for 1HFY26, with net profit attributable to owners expected to be no less than Rmb500 million, which is at least 7% above the forecasted Rmb468 million, indicating a year-on-year growth of over 49% [1]. - The significant growth in net profit is attributed to strong year-on-year growth in the Alifish business and a reduction in investment losses [1]. - For the upcoming 1HFY26E results, total revenue is forecasted to be Rmb3.7 billion, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by an 84% growth in the IP segment [2]. - The IP segment is expected to benefit from strong contributions from Sanrio China and newly onboarded IPs, which are anticipated to double the GMV for AliFish [2]. - Adjusted EBITA is projected to be Rmb525 million, representing a 9% year-on-year increase when excluding a one-off write-back of bad debt from the Film segment in 1HFY25 [3]. - Key areas to monitor include the growth momentum of the IP business, updates on the Damai ticketing business, and margin dynamics for Damai's international business investments [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Damai Entertainment are as follows: Rmb6,702.3 million for FY25, Rmb7,620.5 million for FY26E, Rmb9,049.0 million for FY27E, and Rmb10,308.6 million for FY28E [7]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from Rmb756.2 million in FY25 to Rmb1,842.0 million by FY28E [7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in EPS from Rmb0.02 in FY26E to Rmb0.05 in FY28E [7]. - The company is projected to achieve a net income margin of 14.2% by FY28E, up from 5.4% in FY25 [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the industry is positive, with forecasts for GDP growth in China significantly above consensus for 2025 and 2026 [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights an upward revision in GDP forecasts for China, driven by a strong manufacturing push, which is expected to enhance economic growth [5]. - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has shown a slight increase, indicating a more favorable financial environment for growth [9][32]. - Current Activity Indicators (CAI) for various regions, including China and India, reflect robust economic activity, with China reporting a CAI of +5.8% for September [54][56]. Summary by Sections GDP Forecast Changes - The report details changes in GDP forecasts for various regions, with notable increases for Taiwan (+1.9 percentage points) and Turkey (+1.2 percentage points) [6][12]. - The overall global GDP forecast has been adjusted positively, reflecting improved economic conditions across multiple countries [103][104]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI rose by +0.5 basis points over the week, suggesting a slight easing in financial conditions [9][32]. - The report provides insights into the implications of financial conditions on real GDP growth, indicating a positive correlation [45][46]. Current Activity Indicators - The CAI for the global economy stands at +2.7% for October, with developed markets at +1.5% and emerging markets at +4.5% [54][56]. - Specific countries like Spain and Australia show strong CAI values, indicating robust economic performance [54]. Wage and Price Inflation - Wage trackers indicate varying trends across different countries, with the US and Canada showing positive wage growth [73][75]. - The report discusses the impact of wage growth on inflation measures, highlighting the relationship between labor market conditions and price stability [21][22]. Fiscal Policy Impacts - The report analyzes the effects of fiscal policy on real GDP growth, with projections indicating a positive impact from expansionary fiscal measures in the US and other regions [84][89]. - It emphasizes the importance of fiscal impulses in shaping economic growth trajectories [87][90].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with an upward adjustment in China's GDP forecast based on manufacturing investment growth expectations [1][5]. Core Insights - The easing of US-China trade tensions, including a 10% reduction in tariffs and postponement of certain regulations, is expected to mitigate trade friction in the short term, although long-term impacts remain uncertain [1][2]. - China's GDP forecast has been revised upward primarily due to anticipated growth in manufacturing investments, supported by the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on advanced technology and manufacturing competitiveness [1][5]. - The Chinese government is likely to enhance monetary, fiscal, and credit policies to achieve an average growth target of 4.5% from 2026 to 2030, with a potential goal of around 5% set for 2026 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Trade Relations - Recent discussions between the US and Asian countries, particularly China, have led to a reduction in effective tariffs from over 100% to approximately 30%, with various port fees temporarily suspended [2]. - The trade agreements reached with Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia indicate a reduction in negative scenarios, although residual uncertainties remain [2]. Economic Growth Projections - The Asian economic growth outlook is moderate, with a shift from export-driven growth to reliance on domestic demand, necessitating more accommodative domestic policies [4]. - The low inflation levels in most countries provide room for monetary easing, with many expected to adopt such measures to support domestic demand growth [4]. Policy Adjustments - The Chinese government is expected to implement policies aimed at strengthening traditional industries and developing emerging sectors, focusing on both domestic consumption and international market expansion [3][10]. - The upcoming political meetings in December will be crucial for determining the direction of fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth [12][13]. Currency Outlook - A moderate depreciation of the US dollar is anticipated due to potential Fed rate cuts and a significant fiscal deficit, while the Chinese yuan may experience gradual appreciation [3][9]. - The yuan's potential for appreciation is supported by its current undervaluation and the competitive nature of Chinese exports [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the sectors discussed [2]. Core Insights - The technology sector experienced a positive month with the NDX closing near all-time highs, driven by AI-related themes and significant partnerships [3]. - Financials faced bearish narratives, particularly concerning regional bank credit and consumer credit, impacting investor sentiment [3]. - The healthcare sector saw improved sentiment due to drug pricing agreements and increased M&A activity, although some biopharma stocks reverted initial gains [3]. - Consumer sentiment has turned cautious, particularly in restaurants and grocery sectors, indicating potential slowdowns [3]. - Industrial stocks showed mixed performance, with data centers and AI-related companies gaining traction while materials underperformed [3]. - Energy sector discussions centered around negative oil views, with potential for volatility and price upside due to geopolitical factors [3]. - Utilities are focusing on EPS guidance updates, particularly related to data centers and power demand growth [3]. - Special situations saw increased M&A activity, with notable deals and strategic sponsor involvement [3]. Sector Summaries Technology - The sector saw a +5% increase in October, with AI themes driving performance [3]. - Key subsectors included Semiconductors (+11%) and Software, which remained flat [3]. Financials - The sector faced challenges with narratives around credit quality and consumer spending [3]. - Notable upcoming earnings reports from private credit firms are expected to provide insights [3]. Healthcare - The sector experienced a boost from drug pricing agreements and M&A activity, although some stocks faced volatility [3]. - Biotech sentiment improved following significant policy changes [8]. Consumer - Sentiment has shifted to a more guarded stance, particularly in restaurants and grocery sectors, indicating potential slowdowns [10]. - Upcoming earnings from major retailers will be critical to assess the impact of economic conditions [10]. Industrials - The sector showed modest gains, with data centers and AI-related stocks performing well [3]. - Concerns about inflation and earnings downgrades were noted in the materials subsector [3]. Energy - Investor sentiment remains cautious, with discussions around oil price volatility and geopolitical developments [3]. - The refining sector is experiencing mixed conversations regarding future expectations [3]. Utilities - Focus on EPS guidance updates and potential growth in power demand [3]. - M&A activity is expected to increase, with significant deals in the pipeline [3]. Special Situations - M&A activity surged in October, with notable deals and strategic sponsor involvement [3]. - The report highlights ongoing debates around valuations and potential acquisition targets [19].

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 real GDP growth forecast for China from 4.9% to 5.0% based on government spending acceleration and commitment to economic targets [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of China's manufacturing push in driving economic growth and highlights the expected annual growth of Chinese export volumes by 5-6% [9][10]. - It notes that the fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.0 percentage point of GDP in 2026, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise [9][10]. - The report discusses the ongoing focus on high-tech manufacturing and AI investment as a counterbalance to demographic and local government debt challenges [9][10]. Summary by Sections Current State of the Economy - The 2025 real GDP growth forecast has been raised to 5.0% due to increased government spending and commitment to economic targets [6]. 2026 Macro Views - The report anticipates a real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, which is significantly above market consensus [9]. - It expects the fiscal deficit to widen and further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [9]. Medium- to Long-Term Views - Chinese export volumes are expected to grow by 5-6% annually, contributing to overall economic expansion [9]. - The report highlights the prioritization of manufacturing, technology, and security in China's 15th Five-Year Plan [9]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed forecast of various economic indicators, including GDP growth, domestic demand, consumption, and inflation rates for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]. - It notes that household consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 4.6% in 2025, with government consumption at 4.0% [13]. Policy Measures - The report outlines several policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment, including a consumer goods trade-in program and increased government spending on infrastructure [81][82].

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 30 October 2025 | 8:02AM EDT Economics Research GLOBAL ECONOMICS ANALYST AI Adoption Through the Eyes of GS Investment Bankers Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Megan Peters +44(20)7051-2058 | megan.l.peters@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their inve ...