2025/12/25 15:09 Charts In Focus: These Are Goldman's Top Tech Trader's 10 Biggest Questions For 2026 | ZeroHedge 聚焦图表：这些是⾼盛顶级科技交易员对2026年的10 个最⼤疑问 BY TYLER DURDEN THURSDAY, DEC 25,2025-12:05 AM 科技、媒体和电信⾏业⼜迎来了稳健的⼀年，2025年纳斯达克100指数上涨20%以上，有望实现连 续三年年度回报率超过20%，这在25年多的时间⾥仅为第⼆次（……或者换个说法：……过去23 年中，纳斯达克100指数仅出现过3次下跌年份……） 尽管如此，⾼盛顶级科技交易员彼得·卡拉汉提醒客⼾，2025年的市场⾏情并⾮"⼀帆⻛顺"…… ... 因为今年前4个⽉有⼏次严峻的考验（1⽉的深度求索（DeepSeek）、2⽉/3⽉令⼈不快的Mo' unwind，以及4⽉的"解放⽇"），随后…… 2025年最佳表现者（截⾄12⽉23⽇）：SNDK/铠侠/南亚增⻓超500%，SATS增⻓370%，光模块 （中际旭创、LITE）增⻓超350%，IR ...

2025/12/25 15:13 Goldman: The 15 Most Prominent Debates Of 2025 (Which Are Likely To Carry On In 2026) | ZeroHedge ⾼盛：2025年15个最受关注的争论（可能会延续到 2026年） ⾼盛的迪奥尼·埃利尼卡基提出了以下15个主题（及图表），重点介绍了2025年⼀些最受关注的争 论（所有这些争论很可能会延续到2026年）。 这些图表⼤多来⾃⾼盛（GS）的深度专题研究，专业订阅⽤⼾可以在我们新的MarketDesk.ai⻔⼾ ⽹站上找到这些内容…… 1/ ⼈⼯智能资本⽀出 今年，我们阅读量最⾼的研究报告是彼得·奥本海默的《为什么我们尚未处于泡沫之中……》。 BY TYLER DURDEN WEDNESDAY, DEC 17,2025-10:20 AM https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-15-most-prominent-debates-2025-which-are-likely-carry-2026 1/13 2025/12/25 15:13 Goldm ...

发言人 1: 大家好，欢迎收听高盛的《Research Unplugged》播客。今天我们邀请到了整个医疗健 康研究团队，包括 Assad Haider、Salvin Richter、David Roman、Scott Fidel、Evy Kazakowski 。 Carin Johnson 、 Andrea Newkirk 、 Paul Troy 、 Richard Law 和 Madelatory 也将参与讨论，内容涵盖 2026 年医疗健康行业的前景，涉及治疗领域、服 务板块、肥胖症、LP 小 A、政策改革、FDA 等多个方面。 好的，我们开始吧。Assad，医疗健康板块在 2025 年表现优于标普 500 指数，这是一个 不小的变化。今年医疗健康股反弹的驱动力是什么？进入 2026 年后，还有进一步上涨的 空间吗？投资者最关注哪些问题？ 发言人 2: 好的，谢谢 Chris，也感谢大家今天上午的参与。希望大家也看到了我们今天上午发布的 展望报告，这份报告旨在为投资者提供指引，帮助他们把握我们认为医疗健康板块即将到 来的持续复苏趋势。Chris，正如你所说，医疗健康板块今年持续缩小了与标普 500 指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism for the apparel industry in 2026, highlighting potential recovery driven by middle-income consumer growth and stimulus policies [5] Core Insights - The retail industry in 2026 will focus on delivery speed, value, and the introduction of agency commerce, with successful companies expanding market share through alternative revenue sources like memberships and media [3][4] - The consumer environment in the U.S. is expected to improve, benefiting discretionary spending, particularly in high-growth sectors like energy drinks, nicotine, and beauty products [6] - The food packaging and retail sectors will see improved profit margins due to falling commodity prices, although competition from private labels is intensifying [7] - Key investment themes include the performance of middle-income consumers, with a projected 2.5% increase in real income for the third and fourth income quintiles in 2026 [2] Retail Industry Summary - Four key themes for the retail industry in 2026: delivery speed, value, agency commerce, and the expansion of alternative revenue sources [3] - Companies like Dick's Sporting Goods, Monster, Philip Morris, and Estee Lauder are highlighted as top investment picks [3][14] Apparel Industry Summary - The apparel industry is expected to recover due to consumer demand for wardrobe updates and supportive policies for middle-income groups [5][11] - Factors influencing profitability include pricing management, demand elasticity, and tariff impacts [5] Nicotine Products Summary - Nicotine products have outperformed the market for two consecutive years, driven by consumer pressure and value-oriented behavior [6] Food Packaging and Retail Summary - The decline in commodity prices is expected to enhance profit margins, while competition from private labels poses risks [7] - Companies like Albertsons, Kroger, and Sprouts are positioned to benefit, along with protein companies like Tyson Foods and Hormel [7] Consumer Staples Summary - Recommended stocks in the consumer staples sector include Philip Morris and Monster, both showing strong growth potential [8] - Attention is drawn to companies like Pepsi, Elf, and Celsius, which may be undervalued due to excessive short-selling sentiment [8] Investment Opportunities Summary - Notable investment opportunities include Dick's Sporting Goods, Monster, Philip Morris, Estee Lauder, Ross Stores, and Marriott, all expected to benefit from favorable consumer trends [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for global markets, suggesting that investors should maintain stock allocations while diversifying to hedge against high valuation risks [6][13]. Core Insights - Global stock markets are experiencing broad gains, with the Spanish market up nearly 70% in USD terms, indicating a significant geographical and sectoral expansion in market performance [1][2]. - The current high valuation levels, particularly in the US market with a P/E ratio exceeding 22, suggest that future returns will primarily stem from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][4]. - Earnings growth expectations for 2026 are optimistic, with the US projected to achieve a 12% increase in earnings, driven by margin improvements and the growth of the technology sector [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 2025 has seen a more diversified market performance, with technology and AI sectors standing out, and for the first time since the financial crisis, most major stock markets have outperformed the US [2][8]. - The geographical breadth of market performance is expanding, with value stocks in Europe outperforming the market while US growth stocks regain dominance [3][10]. Earnings Growth Expectations - The report anticipates strong earnings growth across regions in 2026, with the US expected to benefit from margin improvements and a robust technology sector [5][7]. - European markets, despite current profit weaknesses, are expected to improve as the euro strengthens against the dollar and energy sector impacts diminish [5]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate high valuation risks while maintaining stock allocations, as global markets are catching up to the US, presenting new opportunities [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification across geography, factors, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns, especially in light of the concentration risk posed by a few leading companies in the US market [12][13].

高盛闭门会-全球市场 26 展望，股市波动性加剧 ai 主题扩 散，利率新兴市场外汇 20251221 今年的整体宏观背景相当温和。经济增长稳健，通缩趋势日益清晰，劳动力市 场虽然疲软，但并未过度疲软，足以推动更多降息。从市场角度看，挑战在于 市场已大幅领先宏观经济周期。股票和信贷市场的高估值与宏观周期尚未显现 典型后期周期特征（如失衡、高杠杆）之间存在矛盾。例如，失业率仍相对较 低，企业杠杆率也不算过高。尽管通胀高于历史水平，但我们认为它正在下降。 因此当前宏观周期并未显现出特别担忧的失衡或过度扩张迹象。然而，美国股 市和信用利差极低的信贷市场估值水平明显偏高。 如果能够度过劳动力市场等 短期担忧，我们预期中的建设性周期背景将主导估值担忧，股市应能延续上行 趋势。但这种矛盾意味着，在股市上涨过程中波动性将周期性上升。如果市场 更关注再杠杆化、供应问题（如 BAT 相关调查），则对历史低位的信用利差将 构成更大挑战。此外，人工智能相关讨论是当前市场的重要议题。人工智能周 美债与美股相关性稳步下降，有利于债券在多资产投资组合中发挥更有 效作用。需关注财政政策、债务与 GDP 比等因素对债券收益的影响，以 及劳动 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights 15 key debates for 2025 that are likely to continue into 2026, focusing on various sectors including artificial intelligence, private credit, and macroeconomic factors [1] - There is a significant focus on the potential risks associated with alternative debt structures and high-leverage companies within the artificial intelligence ecosystem [4] - The report anticipates a further expansion of artificial intelligence transactions into platform stocks and productivity beneficiaries [9] - Concerns regarding private credit have arisen due to major losses and fraud allegations, indicating increasing risks in non-bank lending [12][13] - The recent rebound in the U.S. cyclical stock market reflects optimistic expectations for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026, with anticipated acceleration in economic growth and fiscal stimulus [15] - The report predicts a favorable fiscal stimulus environment for the upcoming year, driven by tax cuts, investment incentives, and new spending [17] - The K-shaped economic recovery is highlighted, showing disparities in consumer sentiment and sales growth between low-income and high-income segments [21] - The report suggests that 2026 may be a year of recovery for traditional economies, with rising commodity prices driven by a weaker dollar and increased inflation [23] - The outlook for Brent crude oil prices indicates significant downside potential compared to market expectations for 2026 [25] - The stablecoin market is currently valued at approximately $307 billion, dominated by Tether and Circle [29] - Despite strong economic performance in Europe, capital inflows remain notably sluggish [30] - The report has adjusted China's GDP growth forecast upward, which may negatively impact global GDP growth outside of China [36] - The report anticipates further strengthening of the euro against the dollar, which could adversely affect companies with high international sales [38] - South Korea is identified as the best-performing market year-to-date, with ongoing improvements in corporate sectors [40] - The ongoing technological competition between the U.S. and China remains intense, with both countries pursuing self-sufficient technology policies [42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has an average annual total return of +13% since 1945, with 79% of years yielding positive returns, indicating a high probability of profit in the stock market [4][5] - Investing $1,000 in the S&P 500 index in 1945 would result in approximately $7.3 million today, highlighting the power of compounding and the impact of seasonal investment strategies [5][6] - U.S. household net worth increased by 52% from $110 trillion at the end of 2019 to $167 trillion by mid-2023, indicating significant wealth accumulation [5] - The top 10% of U.S. households own 87% of the stock market, while the top 1% own 50%, reflecting wealth concentration in the equity market [6] - Since March 2009, the Nasdaq 100 index has seen a total return of +2,753%, with notable investment opportunities arising during market downturns [7] - The market capitalization of the seven largest tech companies has grown from $1 trillion to $21 trillion over the past thirteen years, indicating robust growth in the tech sector [7] - The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has reached a record high of 40 years, compared to 31 years in 1999, suggesting changing demographics in the housing market [12] Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The S&P 500 index has consistently provided positive returns, with a total return of +17% year-to-date, placing it in the 56th percentile historically [4] - The significant difference in returns based on investment timing emphasizes the importance of market timing and seasonal factors [5] Wealth Distribution - U.S. households, through direct ownership or funds, hold over 50% of the U.S. stock market, contrasting sharply with hedge funds that hold only 2% [5] - The concentration of stock ownership among the wealthiest households raises questions about market dynamics and accessibility for average investors [6] Economic Indicators - The increase in U.S. household net worth and the growth of the tech sector reflect broader economic trends and potential investment opportunities [5][7] - The projected growth of U.S. nominal GDP by nearly 280% by 2050 indicates a long-term positive outlook for the economy [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting a recent downturn in momentum and a shift in market sentiment towards cyclical stocks and AI stocks [1][11]. Core Insights - The report discusses a significant rotation in the market, with a focus on the leadership and expanding participation of artificial intelligence companies. There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the sustainability of AI's leadership position [11]. - Despite a recent decline in the S&P 500 index, the non-essential consumer/retail sector has seen gains, driven by a strong performance in the GSPUCYDE currency trading basket [2]. - The report notes that not all cyclical stocks have suffered; for instance, LULU's stock surged by 11% due to better-than-expected earnings and an optimistic outlook for economic recovery [5]. - The financial sector has been a net buyer for three consecutive weeks, driven by bullish sentiment, while the energy sector has faced significant selling pressure due to low WTI crude oil prices [20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 1% to 6827 points, with the Nasdaq index dropping 191 basis points to 25196 points, primarily due to declines in AVGO and ORCL stocks [1]. - The report highlights that macro factors are driving capital flows, with ETFs tracking macro stocks accounting for 36% of total trading volume [1]. Sector Analysis - The healthcare, utilities, and financial sectors are noted as the highest net buyers, while communication services, information technology, and energy sectors are the highest net sellers [16]. - The energy sector has seen a rapid deterioration in market sentiment, particularly among refining stocks, with a noted decline in crack spreads [22]. Investor Behavior - The report indicates that two groups of investors had net sell-offs of approximately $1 billion each, with hedge funds primarily driven by selling in industrial and technology stocks [6][9]. - The report also mentions that the volatility index (VIX) is expected to see increased selling pressure as investors hedge against volatility [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industrial and materials sector, with specific companies like Parker and Cognex receiving upgraded ratings to "Buy" [2]. Core Insights - The industrial sector is expected to benefit from easing monetary policy and declining inflation, creating a favorable environment for growth [2]. - Data center capital expenditures are projected to grow by 36% in 2026, benefiting companies like Flex and Jabil, which have high profit margins and free cash flow [1][6]. - The aerospace sector is anticipated to see improved production and delivery rates from Boeing and Airbus, driving supply chain growth [1][4]. - The defense sector shows promise with companies like HII and LHX, which are expected to benefit from government support and specific business segments [1][4]. - The airline industry is projected to experience a slight decrease in unit revenue, but companies like Delta and United Airlines remain attractive investment options [1][7]. - The waste management industry is expected to see organic growth in the mid-single digits, with pricing adjustments offsetting declines in recycling prices [1][15]. Summary by Sections Data Centers and Technology - Data center capital expenditures are expected to grow significantly, with a 36% increase projected for 2026, benefiting companies like Flex and Jabil [1][6]. - AI data centers are highlighted as a key theme, with companies like G Vernova planning significant investments [2]. Aerospace and Defense - The aerospace sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with Boeing and Airbus improving production and delivery rates [1][4]. - HII and LHX are identified as key players in the defense sector, benefiting from government support and specific business opportunities [1][4]. Airlines - The airline industry is projected to see unit revenue slightly below 3%, with Delta and United Airlines identified as strong investment candidates [1][7][8]. Waste Management - The waste management sector is expected to see organic growth in the mid-single digits, with pricing adjustments helping to mitigate challenges [1][15]. Construction and Infrastructure - The construction sector is facing challenges, but private non-residential building is expected to recover due to strong investments in data centers and healthcare [2][13]. - Companies like Acom and Jacobs are noted for their structural profit margin expansion, making them attractive investment opportunities [14].