摘要 2025 年中国出口在全球出口中占比大，同比增长约 1%，略高于全球平 均水平，表明中国在全球贸易中仍具重要地位。 美国加征关税后，中国出口转向亚洲内部贸易及东南亚、拉丁美洲、非 洲等新兴市场和欧洲，贸易多元化显著。 美国第四季度销量同比下降 7%，预计冬季降幅可能加快至 10%左右， 主要原因是持续去库存，库存水平较低，若 2026 年美国经济稳定或略 好转，贸易量有望稳定或增长。 苏伊士运河重新开放可能导致吨海里需求减少约 10%，对航运供需平衡 造成冲击，显著影响行业利润。 港口拥堵、生产效率低下和罢工等问题可能部分抵消苏伊士运河重新开 放带来的影响，集装箱船公司面临价格战或理性行为的不确定性。 集装箱船公司可能面临价格战或理性行为之间的不确定性，租船市场将 承担大部分痛苦，行业可能面临业绩大幅下滑甚至亏损。 多元化经营且不完全依赖海运业务的公司受苏伊士运河重新开放的影响 相对较小，抗风险能力更强。 Q&A 中国的贸易数据在最近几个月是否有所增强？ 是的，中国的贸易数据在最近几个月表现出显著增强。今年（2025 年）第四 季度迄今为止，中国的贸易量同比增长了 5%，与之前 9 个月的趋势一致，显 ...

1 December 2025 | 9:09 AM China Standard Time 骨 PDF & Share EVENTS TO HIGHLIGHT - RSVP 重点关注活动 - 敬请预约 GS Daily | Meituan bull/bear, TP down to HK$120 // Copper sentiment divergence // Moutai AGM takeaways // Mitac include AMD exposure to GSe // First week of net buy China A since final week of Oct SALES HIGHLIGHT 销售亮点 Asia desk flows (Ty Matthew Mason) – Activity increased WoW and broke from recent trend with a convincing net buy skew of +bps. Continued interest in Japan led buying, however China A demand wa ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral market position for hedge funds, with a high leverage level and significant risk exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - In 2025, only 28% of U.S. mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks, leading to a historical low cash holding of 1.2% as funds chase market returns [1][2]. - Hedge funds maintain a neutral market position but exhibit high leverage, indicating substantial risk exposure [1][2]. - Both hedge funds and mutual funds are underweight in the technology sector due to its high index weight, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks (excluding Tesla) remain favored by hedge funds [1][2]. - Mutual funds have overweighted the utility sector for the first time, while both fund types are overweight in industrials, benefiting from the AI infrastructure boom [1][2]. - The healthcare sector is favored as a defensive play and an AI hedge, with its valuation discount at historical highs attracting both mutual and hedge funds [1][2][7]. Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In 2025, mutual funds have reduced cash positions to 1.2%, reflecting a trend to keep pace with strong stock market performance [2]. - Hedge funds are cautious in the consumer discretionary sector, particularly in travel and leisure, indicating recession risks [3][13]. Sector Allocation - The technology sector is the most sold-off by hedge funds, with funds shifting towards healthcare, which has seen strong performance this year [9][10]. - The healthcare sector is viewed as a defensive industry and has a negative correlation with the Nasdaq index, making it attractive during uncertain economic conditions [6][7]. Investment Strategies - Hedge funds are employing macro products to hedge beta risk and are focusing on short-selling opportunities to enhance returns [5][8]. - Mutual funds are advised to manage liquidity carefully and diversify risk, while hedge funds should monitor macroeconomic changes and adjust positions flexibly [8]. Future Outlook - The healthcare sector's valuation remains attractive despite recent gains, with potential growth driven by fundamental factors [11]. - Consumer discretionary sectors may present opportunities if fiscal stimulus leads to increased consumer spending [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Li Auto, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [7]. Core Insights - Li Auto is positioned well in the NEV market with a 5% market share in China as of 2024, benefiting from improvements in urban NOA performance and a focus on AI, which supports volume growth and margin improvement [7]. - The company has the best net cash position among major Chinese OEMs, facilitating future R&D spending and capital expenditures [7]. - Li Auto's current trading multiples are below historical averages, suggesting potential for upside [7]. - Upcoming catalysts include new model launches and advancements in ADAS and AI technologies [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 3Q25, Li Auto reported total revenue of Rmb27,365 million, exceeding expectations by 6%, while gross profit missed by 13% due to a one-time recall cost of approximately Rmb1.1 billion [1][5]. - Vehicle sales revenue was 6% higher than expected, driven by a higher average selling price of Rmb278,000, which is a 5% increase compared to the forecast [2]. - The vehicle gross margin was reported at 15.5%, lower than expected due to recall costs, but would have been 19.8% excluding these costs [2][5]. - Total operating expenses were 12% higher than expected, primarily due to increased R&D and SG&A expenses [2][5]. Guidance and Projections - For 4Q25, Li Auto's revenue guidance is set between Rmb26.5 billion and Rmb29.2 billion, which is a 1% increase at the midpoint compared to expectations [1]. - Vehicle sales volume is projected to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, slightly below expectations by 1% at the midpoint [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year and 4.5% for Q4 2025, indicating a stable outlook for the industry [5][8]. Core Insights - China's fiscal spending growth is below expectations, primarily due to strong export growth, which allows for a 5% annual growth target to be achievable. This has led to a tightening of fiscal policy in October, but some policy space is reserved for 2026 to ensure a strong start [5][8]. - The focus of China's economic policy for the coming year will be on stabilizing domestic demand, supporting high-tech manufacturing, and stabilizing the real estate market, with key discussions expected in upcoming political meetings [8][12]. - The labor market shows slight improvement but remains at historical lows, limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence has improved slightly, influenced by the stock market, but overall consumer spending remains weak [9][10]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - In October, fiscal spending growth was lower than market expectations, leading to an unexpected tightening of broad fiscal indicators. However, the report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year [5][6]. Consumer Market - October retail sales data showed accelerated growth in categories like cosmetics and jewelry due to the Double Eleven shopping festival, but this is expected to decline in November. Sales of home appliances and automobiles, supported by trade-in subsidies, have lagged behind other categories, indicating that price promotions and temporary subsidies cannot sustain durable goods consumption [6][7]. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - The labor market remains weak, with historical low employment levels limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence showed slight improvement, potentially due to stock market performance, but overall consumer spending is still weak [9][10]. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) - FAI growth has significantly slowed, dropping to approximately -11% in October. The decline in real estate investment, along with reductions in infrastructure and manufacturing investments, has contributed to this downturn. The report suggests that only 40% of the decline can be attributed to known factors, with the remaining 60% possibly due to statistical adjustments [13][14]. Policy Recommendations - To stimulate household consumption, the report suggests measures such as creating job opportunities, increasing minimum wage standards, and enhancing service consumption supply. Specific policies include subsidies for the service industry and labor-intensive sectors, as well as relaxing restrictions on high-end consumption [12][16]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies 35 policy-supported industries that account for approximately 60% of the total market capitalization of listed companies. These industries are expected to provide better investment returns based on the analysis of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decreased to +4.7% month-on-month annualized seasonally adjusted in October from +5.9% in September, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The deterioration in CAI was primarily driven by the manufacturing sectors, suggesting challenges in this area [10] - Both manufacturing and construction growth proxies fell in October, reflecting a broader decline in economic momentum [12] - The China Financial Conditions Index (FCI) tightened further in October, mainly due to foreign exchange appreciation against a trade-weighted basket [26][31] - The investment tracker indicates stable momentum at around 3% year-on-year in Q3, suggesting some resilience in investment despite broader economic challenges [19] Summary by Relevant Sections Current Activity - The CAI fell to +4.7% in October, down from +5.9% in September, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The decline was led by manufacturing sectors, highlighting potential weaknesses in this area [10] Manufacturing and Construction - Both manufacturing and construction growth proxies experienced declines in October, signaling a broader economic slowdown [12] Financial Conditions - The FCI tightened in October, primarily driven by foreign exchange factors, indicating a more challenging financial environment [26][31] Investment Trends - The investment tracker shows stable momentum at approximately 3% year-on-year in Q3, suggesting some resilience in investment activity [19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese biopharmaceutical industry, highlighting significant advancements in drug development efficiency and global collaboration strategies. Core Insights - Chinese biopharmaceutical companies have significantly shortened drug development cycles through streamlined decision-making processes and enhanced research capabilities, with some drugs taking only four years from clinical trials to NDA acceptance [1][2] - External licensing has become a crucial strategy for Chinese companies to globalize, with many firms actively building business development teams to foster collaborations with large multinational pharmaceutical companies [1][5] - There is a strong interest in emerging drug modalities such as ADCs, small nucleic acid drugs, and in vivo CAR-T therapies, which are becoming integral parts of the R&D pipeline and are expected to drive next-generation product innovation [1][6] - Global investors are particularly focused on weight loss products and Lipoprotein A (Lp(a)) projects, indicating substantial growth potential in cardiovascular disease-related products [1][4] Summary by Sections Drug Development Efficiency - Chinese companies like Heng Rui have demonstrated impressive development timelines, with processes from GLP E Tox to IND taking only six months and clinical trials to NDA acceptance completed in four years [2] Globalization Strategies - Chinese biopharmaceutical firms are addressing globalization challenges by collaborating with multinational pharmaceutical companies, moving from traditional licensing to co-development models [5] Emerging Drug Modalities - The report emphasizes the enthusiasm of Chinese companies in exploring new drug forms, particularly ADCs and small nucleic acid drugs, which are becoming key components of their R&D pipelines [2][6] Market Focus Areas - Investors are keenly interested in weight loss products and Lp(a) projects, with significant attention on cardiovascular disease collaborations, indicating a robust growth trajectory in these areas [4] Company-Specific Developments - He Yu Pharmaceutical's Pimiatinib is projected to capture a 25% global market share in key indications, with peak sales potentially reaching $1.6 billion [7] - Kangnuo's Sluqi monoclonal antibody is expected to exceed RMB 5 billion in peak sales by 2035, with promising prospects in multiple indications [10] - Hanlin Pharmaceutical is recognized for its high-margin biosimilar business, supporting its innovative pipeline, with the PD-L1 ADC HLX43 expected to achieve peak sales of $3.8 billion [11][12]

高盛闭门会-中国肥胖症专家调研，药物格局市场和商业模 式 20251124 摘要 中国肥胖患病率约为 50%，肥胖人群主要关注外表改善而非疾病后果， 但新型药物问世及超重人群增多，正推动医疗干预需求，提高临床渗透 率需加强公众教育，认识到医疗干预的重要性。 中国减重市场潜力巨大，尤其在阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停等并发症领域，但 需投入大量教育成本。应关注 2 型糖尿病患者中普遍存在的肌肉问题， 强调疾病的长期管理，借鉴糖尿病发展经验。 中国市场上已有多种减重药物，包括半金和涨潮等，未来还将有更多国 产新药和优质仿制药上市。医生需根据疗效、成本和患者具体情况，推 荐有效且经济可行的治疗方案。 利利斯玛已在中国上市，但未纳入医保影响市场表现，口服制剂因使用 方便和成本较低，有望提高偏远地区覆盖率，成为未来治疗方案的重要 组成部分，需做好市场准备。 在线渠道已成为抗肥胖药物的重要销售途径，但易导致药物滥用。品牌 忠诚度对仿制药市场有影响，价格敏感性在年轻一代中尤为明显，需关 注线上销售监管。 Q&A 您能否大致介绍一下中国的肥胖流行情况？中国人和西方人在肥胖方面是否存 在差异？这些差异如何影响治疗方案？ 根据中国的诊断标准 ...

高盛周末宏观电话会议 20251124 摘要 美国失业率升至 4.4%，持续申领人数创新高，表明劳动力市场存在剩 余空间，美联储或因此在 12 月降息 25 个基点，但 FOMC 内部对此存 在分歧。 11 月就业报告是影响美联储决策的关键数据，但 12 月 10 日 FOMC 会 议前重要数据不多，CPI 可能推迟发布，美联储或采取温和立场。 美国经济数据显示就业市场恶化，失业率从年初 4%升至 4.4%，AI 裁 员预示劳动力市场疲软，美联储 12 月降息合理，2026 年底联邦基金利 率或接近 3%，甚至更低。 2026 年上半年美国将出台大量刺激政策，结合宽松金融条件和降息， 将影响收益率曲线，财政可持续性担忧缓解，对长端收益率曲线压制作 用减弱。 AI 相关债券发行增加，TMT 公司为 AI 开发大量发债，今年 TMT 公司发 行近 2000 亿企业债，其中 AI 相关债务达 1,000 亿，挑战现金市场吸收 风险能力，导致信用市场表现不佳。 Q&A 最近的就业数据和劳动力市场情况如何？ 接下来哪些重要的数据会影响美联储的决策？ 在 12 月 10 日 FOMC 会议之前，没有太多重要的新数据发布。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for China in a regional context, favoring North Asia markets with a moderately cyclical sector emphasis [87]. Core Insights - The MSCI China index has rebounded 80% from its cycle lows in late 2022, with expectations for a sustained uptrend, forecasting key indexes to rise 30-40% and reach all-time highs by the end of 2027 [4]. - The report emphasizes strategies such as "buying the dip" and focusing on alpha through specific themes like AI, "Going Global" leaders, and small-cap A-shares [5][6]. - The pro-market policy environment is expected to remain supportive, with measures aimed at stimulating demand and enhancing shareholder returns [6][31]. - Earnings growth is projected to accelerate to low-teen levels, driven by AI advancements and anti-involution measures [38][41]. - Valuations are considered attractive, with the current forward P/E ratio at 12.9x, compared to a macro model implied P/E of 13.7x [70][71]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report forecasts a 30% rise in Chinese equities over the next two years, supported by low-teen trend profit growth and moderate P/E expansion [20][18]. - The transition from a "Hope" phase to a "Growth" phase in the equity cycle is highlighted, where profit growth is expected to drive equity returns [23]. Policy Environment - The report outlines a favorable policy landscape, with ongoing monetary and fiscal support aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [31][27]. - Specific measures include a reduction in housing transaction taxes and increased funding for consumption initiatives [31]. Earnings and Valuation - Trend EPS growth is expected to reach 12%, bolstered by AI, anti-involution, and global expansion strategies [38][39]. - The report notes that Chinese equities are currently trading at mid-cycle valuations, with significant discounts compared to developed markets [64][67]. Capital Flows - There is a structural migration of capital towards equities, with trillions of dollars in potential asset reallocation flows anticipated [75][78]. - Foreign investor positioning in Chinese stocks has shown modest improvement, indicating a renewed interest in the market [81].