复宏汉霖(02696):给予"买入"评级,上调目标价至104.79港元 美国高盛 高盛发布研报称，给予复宏汉霖(65.65,1.50,2.34%)(02696)为"买入"评级，将公司今年及明年销售预 测分别上调8.6%及8.3%，维持2028年销售预测不变，而各年纯利预测则分别上调3,800万元人民币、2.24亿元 人民币及1.43亿元人民币，其目标价由102.72港元上调至104.79港元。 该行指出，复宏汉霖去年下半年总收入同比升29%至38亿元人民币，其中中国内地销售胜于预期，同比升 31%至32亿元人民币。至于海外收入全年达2.58亿元人民币，其中HLX02贡献约1.8亿元人民币，海外利润主要 来自HLX02在美国的销售。下半年盈利超出预期，受惠于收入增长强劲和毛利率不断提升。 ...

高盛发布研报称，友邦保险(79.35,-6.70,-7.79%)(01299)2025财年业绩大致符合预期。第四季新业务价 值增长放缓，但乐见2026年主要市场展现出正向的增长动能。管理层指出，2026年1月至2月期间，内地新业务 价值的同比高于20%，而香港强劲的增长动能亦延续至2026年。高盛认为，对储蓄型产品比重较高的担忧已反 映在目前较历史平均为低的P/EV倍数中，在此水平视风险回报具吸引力。该行更新了预测，将友邦2026至28财 年预期新业务价值/EV比率上调1%至2%，营运税后溢利预测上调2%至3%。目标价由96港元升至97港元，重 申"买入"评级。 美国高盛 友邦保险(01299):微升目标价至97港元,重申"买入"评级 ...

富卫集团(01828):降目标价至43港元,维持"买入"评级 高盛发布研报称，富卫集团(01828)去年的新业务价值与合约服务利润边际(CSM)高于预期，反映业务增长 及营运杠杆改善。该行将2026至28财年新业务价值与合约服务利润预测上调11%至13%，合约服务利润预测调升 8%至12%。然而，日本监管转为经济价值基础偿付能力监管或为公司带来负面影响，因此将内涵价值(EV)预测 下调6%，目标价相应由46港元调降至43港元，维持"买入"评级。 该行指，虽然富卫去年业绩低于预期，但管理层透露香港业务于本年至今已录得正增长。因此该行维持公 司的年化保费(APE)和新业务价值预测。 美国高盛 ...

美国高盛 小鹏汽车-W(09868):首季收入指引胜预期,予"买入"评级及目标价85港元 高盛发布研报称，小鹏汽车-W(71.6,0.00,0.00%)(09868)2025年第四季毛利及EBIT均优于该行及市场预 期，主要因服务及其他收入高于预期，以及政府补贴增加。虽然2026年首季交付量指引6.1万至6.6万辆较低， 但收入指引122亿至132.8亿元人民币，则高于该行预期，可能受非汽车收入带动。现予"买入"评级及港股目 标价85港元。该行预期投资者将关注小鹏汽车首季毛利率指引、人形机械人和自动驾驶的未来里程，以及全年 新车型发布时间及海外扩张策略。 ...

高盛闭门会：游戏规则的边界：评估私募信贷风险 20260320 摘要 私募信贷零售渠道（非交易型 BDC/区间基金）NAV 约 2,300 亿美元， 预计未来几年累计净流出或超 500 亿美元，占资产净值约 25%-30%。 流动性风险可控：400 亿美元流动性资产+贷款到期现金流+0.7-0.8 倍 低杠杆空间可覆盖大部分赎回需求，每季度赎回额度通常限制在 5%。 直接贷款池中软件行业占比约 25%，目前 LTV 仅 30%-40%，利息覆 盖率约 2 倍，底层资产现金回报率>9%，信贷压力尚未显现。 市场已计入 AI 颠覆风险：上市 BDC 交易价格较 NAV 折价 20%-30%， 已充分反映软件行业潜在估值下行及再融资风险。 募资端竞争趋缓促使利差回升：直接贷款利率从 SOFR+600bp 降至 +450bp 后有望反弹，贷款条款与契约条件预计将改善。 投资机会转向机会型信贷、特殊情况投资及二级市场，关注管理费收入 占比高、机构客户为主的另类资产管理机构。 Q&A 当前私募信贷市场的整体情绪和市场关注的核心问题是什么？ 当前私募信贷市场的市场情绪已降至冰点，呈现负面态势。市场关注的核心问 题主要有三个 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment rating for Xiaomi, highlighting favorable risk-reward dynamics despite recent stock price fluctuations [2]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's revenue structure for 2026 is projected to be 40% from portable devices (with 35% from smartphones), 30% from automotive, 20% from IoT, and less than 10% from internet services [1]. - Internet services and IoT are identified as core profit pillars, expected to contribute 90% of total profits by 2025, with internet business gross margins reaching 25%-30% [1][4]. - The company holds $26 billion in net cash and $12.5 billion in investment book value, providing a strong valuation buffer with an estimated per-share value of approximately $11 [1][6]. - Xiaomi's AI strategy has shifted towards foundational large models, with MemoV2Pro ranking in the top eight globally, enhancing its position in AI development [1][7]. - The automotive business employs a blockbuster strategy, with over 550,000 units of SU7/YU7 delivered, and plans to launch a new extended-range SUV in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. Revenue and Profit Structure - In 2026, the revenue composition is expected to be 40% from portable devices, 30% from automotive, 20% from IoT, and less than 10% from internet services, while the gross profit structure shows that smartphones contribute over 10% to total gross profit [3][4]. - The core profit sources include IoT, internet services, investment income, and interest income, which are more stable and expected to offset potential profit fluctuations from automotive or smartphone businesses [4][9]. High-End Strategy and Market Positioning - Xiaomi's high-end strategy has been successfully implemented, with over 25% of smartphone shipments in China being high-end models by 2025 [4][5]. - The company is adjusting smartphone specifications and pricing to manage semiconductor price fluctuations, with expected smartphone losses of approximately $7.5 billion in 2026 due to rising component costs [5][6]. Supply Chain Management - Memory costs account for 10%-20% of smartphone pricing, with a projected three-digit percentage increase in memory prices in 2026, potentially impacting smartphone profit margins by up to 10 percentage points [5]. - Xiaomi is managing supply chain risks through component specification adjustments, price increases, and faster new model launches to reflect rising costs [5][6]. Financial Health - Xiaomi's balance sheet is a significant value support, with $26 billion in net cash and $12.5 billion in investment book value, generating $2-3 billion in free cash flow annually [6]. - The company has repurchased about 1% of its market value since 2026, which supports its stock price [6]. AI and Ecosystem Integration - Xiaomi's AI strategy focuses on becoming a leading foundational large language model company and integrating AI capabilities into its ecosystem across smartphones, IoT, and automotive products [7][8]. - The introduction of large language models is transforming Xiaomi's smart capabilities from device-level to whole-home system-level intelligence [8][11]. Internet Services Growth - The internet services business is a core profit source, contributing 25%-30% of gross profit, with expectations to exceed 100% of net profit by 2026 [9]. - Revenue growth is primarily driven by advertising, with a 10% year-on-year increase in monthly active users, although overall smartphone shipment pressures may slow growth [9][10]. Automotive Business Development - Xiaomi's automotive strategy began five years ago, with the launch of the SU7 and YU7 models, achieving over 550,000 deliveries [10]. - The upcoming launch of a new extended-range SUV is crucial for expanding into a new customer demographic, targeting older families [10]. Ecosystem Connectivity - Xiaomi's ecosystem leverages its proprietary operating system and Mi Home app for unified device control, with over 100 million monthly active users in China [11]. - The integration of AI assistants enhances user experience, allowing devices to learn user habits and automate operations [11].

腾讯控股(00700):降目标价至700港元,转向以AI新产品为主导投资阶段 高盛发布研报称，维持腾讯控股(512,-38.50,-6.99%)(00700)"买入"评级，惟将目标价由752港元下调 至700港元，对其游戏业务估值降至预测市盈率21倍(此前为24倍)。 腾讯旗下人工智能发展为游戏和广告业务带来稳健的增长前景，不过，公司明显转向以AI新产品为主导的 投资阶段，并预告回购规模将同比有所收窄，因此该行将公司今年经调整净利润同比增长预测由10%降至7%。 该行表示，虽然腾讯短期内的利润增长放缓，但相信随着公司的AI发展，及未来3至6个月即将推出微信AI 助理，和基于WeChat/WeCom的Claw-agent等关键产品推进，公司估值有望修复。 美国高盛 ...

高盛闭门会：走向全球：韩国与新兴市场亚洲 20260318 摘要 韩国市场受存储芯片"巨型周期"驱动，DRAM/NAND 供需缺口或持续 至 2028 年，2026 年盈利增长预期达 130%。 HBM 产能挤占传统 DRAM 供应，叠加 AI 需求激增，半导体行业定价权 极强，正转化为高净利润弹性。 韩国"价值提升计划"改革与 MSCI 发达市场升级预期为核心催化，预 计指数升级将带来 400-500 亿美元净流入。 对冲基金对韩股配置达五年 99%分位，长线资金持续流入；某大型半导 体公司 2026 年赴美上市预期将修正估值差。 AI 对印度 IT 服务及人口红利构成颠覆风险，资金偏好转向具备硬件护城 河的韩国及估值处于低位的中国资产。 香港房产及港交所受益于大湾区融合与南向资金，目前处于 2021 年下 跌 21%后的显著上涨趋势初期。 策略建议：布局亚洲核能与国防安全组合；通过互换交易持有中证 1,000，利用 15 倍低估值博取长期风险收益比。 Q&A 鉴于近期全球市场尤其是亚洲新兴市场的剧烈波动，当前的市场展望如何？其 中是否存在如韩国市场这样的特例？ 当前市场焦点完全集中于海湾冲突及霍尔木兹海峡 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology) H-shares with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 268 HKD; it also reinstates a "Buy" rating for A-shares with a target price of 227 RMB [1] Core Insights - 澜起科技 is recognized as a leader in memory interconnect chips, with a projected market share of 36.8% based on 2024 revenue calculations. The growth is expected to be driven by increasing demand for advanced memory interconnect technology due to cloud computing and AI infrastructure [1] - The company is anticipated to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% in revenue from 2025 to 2032, supported by growing demand and rapid product expansion [1] - High expectations for 澜起科技's net profit in 2026 and 2027 are noted, with forecasts exceeding market expectations by 13% and 16% respectively, reflecting optimism regarding new product introductions leading to higher revenue [1]

理想汽车公布2025年第四季业绩后，该行下调2026至2028年预测，销量预测下调5%至22%，基于管理层对 2026年销量指引低于预期，以及改款车型推出步伐放缓;毛利率预测下调0.4至1.0个百分点，基于2026年第一 季及全年指引低于预期，以及销量及收入减少;因此，纯利预测下调21%至34%。 高盛发布研报称，理想汽车-W(66.85,-4.45,-6.24%)(02015)公布的2025年第四季业绩符合预期，惟2026 年第一季及全年预测的销量及毛利率指引逊于预期。高盛将理想汽车目标价由93港元下调至74港元，评级 由"买入"下调至"中性"。该行预期理想汽车将进入连续两季的纯利亏损扩大，销量增长乏力及车辆毛利率 受压，主要由于缺乏新车型推出、原材料及内存成本上涨，以及低利润率车型占比提高。 理想汽车-W(02015):下调评级至"中性",降目标价至74港元 美国高盛 ...