15 January 2026 | 9:46PM HKT Equity Research Chris Pan, CFA +852-2978-7993 | chris.pan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kaylee Jiang, Ph.D. +852-2978-1126 | kaylee.jiang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. CHINA HEALTHCARE CDMOS Takeaways on preliminary results and initial FY26 guidance: largely inline or better than GSe; awaiting further color on exact guidance and backlog trends Year to date, market sentiment toward Chinese CDMOs continues to improve, and share prices for key players are up +21% on avera ...

高盛闭门会-美股 2026 展望看好顺周期板块，ai 交易从资 本支出到生产力提升 20260115 摘要 标普 500 指数未来三年预计保持强劲增长，2026 年目标点位 7,600 点， 总回报率达 12%，主要驱动力为健康的经济基本面、大型龙头股的盈利 能力以及 AI 应用带来的新增利润。 当前市场估值虽高，但高盈利能力股票理应获得更高估值，且投机泡沫 迹象不明显，无需过度担忧，市场有望持续由盈利推动上行。 美联储政策宽松预期是利好，但需警惕利率大幅上升和经济增长放缓风 险，下半年经济增速可能略有放缓，导致股票回报率小幅下降。 市场集中度风险可控，前十大股票收益占比达 31%，虽估值高于平均水 平，但远低于历史峰值，且拥有稳健的收益增长。 上半年经济环境乐观，周期性股票有进一步提升空间，中等收入消费板 块和非住宅建筑相关领域值得关注。 人工智能相关交易将继续发展，但会出现更多分化和轮动，资本支出增 速放缓可能对基础设施类股构成风险，AI 交易有望向第三、第四阶段扩 散。 价值股与成长股之间仍存在显著估值分化，当前环境对价值股仍较为有 利，医疗保健和必需消费品板块被低估，建议配置防御性资产以实现风 险平衡 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight position in equities while maintaining neutral allocations in bonds, commodities, and cash, with a low allocation to credit [2] Core Insights - Despite high market valuations, macro fundamentals are expected to support the current levels, and high valuations alone do not constitute a bearish signal [3] - Economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be diversified, driven by fiscal policy, regulatory easing, and AI penetration, while political and geopolitical risks should be monitored [4] - The importance of diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in the late economic cycle, with a recommendation for alternative strategies and diverse investment styles [5][6] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The macro outlook for 2026 is positive, with strong performance expected in the first half, but potential slowdown in the second half. Growth will be more diversified, supported by fiscal policy and AI integration [4] Market Valuation - Current valuations are high, with the S&P Shiller PE ratio at its highest level since the tech bubble, but macro factors support these valuations, indicating that high valuations alone do not signal a market downturn [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for early 2026 favors risk assets, particularly equities, while maintaining neutral positions in bonds and commodities. Credit is underweighted due to low credit spreads [2] - The report highlights the need for selective and cautious approaches in spread trading and credit investments, recommending an overweight in equities to navigate the current economic environment [7] Sector and Regional Trends - Different regions are driven by various factors, with the U.S. led by technology, while value stocks are recovering in Europe. The report notes a balanced dynamic across sectors, creating opportunities for alpha generation [8] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to see a divergence in returns, with gold projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel [18]

高盛对美国 2026 年的经济增长有何看法？有哪些具体因素支撑这一预测？ 高盛预计美国 2026 年四季度同比增速为 2.5%。支撑这一预测的因素包括关 税不再拖累经济，甚至可能逐步转化为实际收入的小幅提振；消费者将迎来减 税政策和高额退税；企业端也将获得财政支持，如设备和厂房全额折旧；美联 储已实施降息举措并可能进一步降息。这些因素共同作用，将助力美国实现良 高盛交易所：2026 年展望第一集-宏观全景 20260115 摘要 高盛预测美国 2026 年四季度 GDP 增速为 2.5%，主要支撑因素包括关 税影响减弱、减税政策、企业财政支持及美联储可能进一步降息。市场 预期略低于高盛，存在上调空间。 高盛预计中国 2026 年经济增长将高于市场共识，出口增长将抵消房地 产行业的负面影响，经常账户盈余预计扩大至全球 GDP 的 1%左右，利 好商品生产和出口导向型行业。 中国经常账户盈余扩大将对欧洲经济构成拖累，尤其是德国。但短期内， 德国财政扩张政策及欧元区其他国家的强劲表现带来一定助益，长期前 景仍面临挑战。 预计 2026 年美元将持续走弱，因美联储可能比其他发达市场降息幅度 更大。全球经济增长环境总体 ...

GOAL KICKSTART Goldilocks sprint – GS views for 2026 vs. market pricing YTD Since the start of 2026, macroeconomic prints mostly surprised to the upside. While US NFPs came in somewhat below expectations, the US unemployment rate declined to 4.4%. German manufacturing orders and industrial production came in above consensus, while Euro area inflation data was softer than consensus. Market sentiment has also started strongly, with our Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) accelerating and moving above 0.9 last week ...

高盛：研究深度解析：大型软件股启动 20260112 ServiceNow 已确立行动系统地位，可通过收购增强协调层功能。甲骨 文的数据中心部署和 OCI 业务收入确认显示长期盈利能力。DataDog 因兼容环境可观测性提升而备受看好。 顶尖安全软件平台如 CrowdStrike、CloudFlare 和 Palo Alto Networks 受益于数字化转型，具备持续增长潜力，与微软、 ServiceNow 类似。 您提到 AI 市场规模接近 5 万亿美元，并且采用趋势可能好转，竞争可能缓解。 那么，我们应该关注哪些类型的公司？ 我们建议关注 AI 应用提供商，包括上市公司和私营企业。未来企业必然是智能 体与人类协同工作的模式，因此现有 SaaS 龙头企业如微软、Salesforce 和 ServiceNow 等，将有机会在智能体与传统人工工作流并存的时代成为企业软 件领导者。这些公司需要完成平台重构，确保技术平台组件互联互通，并通过 有机增长与非有机创新相结合来整合产品组合。此外，还需解决变现问题，通 过提升用户采用率后再启动定价变现机制。我们将重点追踪 AI 商业化相关披露 信息，以判断基本面是否出现拐 ...

2025 年标普价格涨幅达 16%，其中 14 个百分点由盈利贡献。预计 2026 年盈利增长 12%，对应标普指数 12%的回报率，市盈率维持在 22 倍，宏观模型显示利率、增长率和盈利能力未发生实质变化，风险分 布偏向上行。 尽管利率上升，但仍低于长期平均水平，标普 500 盈利能力创数十年新 高。家庭部门需将三分之一投资组合重新配置为股票以维持长期估值倍 数，但结构性因素导致这种情况难以实现。 超大规模企业 AI 相关支出接近 5,500 亿美元，同比增长近 40%，但增 速放缓。AI 交易将从基础设施类股转向其他部分，一些公司已展示 AI 应 用带来的实际盈利影响。 预计今年生产力增长 0.5%，明年 1.5%，数值虽小但逐步增加。当前 IPO 数量低于长期平均水平，但多项宏观指标显示 2026 年 IPO 环境将 有所改善，预计今年 IPO 数量增加。 美股每日需求达 40 至 50 亿美元，回购需求放缓，但不会显著改变股票 供需平衡，为向股东返还现金的公司创造稀缺性溢价。该主题在当前投 资环境、现金支出环境及债务环境下会延续。 Q&A 2026 年标普指数的走势如何？目标点位是多少？背后的逻辑是什 ...

Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs upgrades the investment rating for the Asia-Pacific region, specifically the MX APJ index, with a 12-month target raised to 825 points, indicating a 14% price return in USD and a total return of 17% [1][2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is viewed as constructive, with U.S. GDP growth expected to exceed market consensus at 2.6%, and the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates twice before mid-year, which typically benefits Asian markets [3][4]. - Earnings growth for 2026 is projected to be strong, increasing from 10% to 19%, with significant contributions from North Asia, India, and cyclical sectors [1][5]. - Valuations are considered reasonable but slightly high, with a forecasted slight compression from 15x to 14.6x, indicating that corporate earnings will be the primary driver of stock market returns [6]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook is positive, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.6% and AEG growth around 4.8%. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, leading to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for Asian markets [3][4]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings growth is anticipated to rise significantly, with overall growth expected to reach 19%. The recovery in quarterly earnings is attributed to easing base effects, and the ERI indicator suggests a positive outlook for earnings revisions [5]. Valuation Perspective - Current valuations are slightly above historical averages, with the region's price-to-earnings ratio at 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term mean. Earnings will be crucial for driving stock market returns this year [6]. Fund Flow Trends - There has been a significant outflow of approximately $100 billion from overseas investors, with current mutual fund allocations 75 basis points below benchmarks, indicating potential for rebuilding positions in the region [7][8]. Sector and Industry Focus - Investment in large-scale enterprises is expected to grow by 34% to approximately $550 billion, benefiting sectors such as hardware, semiconductors, and AI. The "Asian Energy Upgrade" theme is highlighted, focusing on nuclear power, electricity, and renewable energy [9]. - The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China presents opportunities for U.S. re-industrialization, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing investments in response to U.S. demand [10]. China Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain robust, with the MSCI China index projected to rise by 15%-17% and the CSI 300 index by about 10%. Profit growth is forecasted to increase significantly from 4% to 14% [13][14]. India Market Strategy - The Indian market rating has been upgraded to "overweight," with expected earnings growth of around 15%. Key sectors include finance, consumer goods, and industrials, particularly in defense and energy security [16][19].

高盛闭门会--2026 年 G10 利率展望：通缩缓解降低了久 期风险 20260110 摘要 在我们的宏观观点中存在通缩因素，预计年底将接近目标水平。目前环境下， 我们预测波动性不高。对于主要经济体 10 年期基准利率，我们预计美国利率 将横盘整理至 4.2%。尽管久期风险依然存在，今年（2026 年）财政风险和经 济增长前景略有改善。如果通胀走势保持相对可控，即便债券供给量大，也能 催生债券需求。因此，这是我们美国利率预测的重要考量因素之一。 我们倾向 于认为美国收益率曲线趋陡。如果劳动力市场数据出现任何走弱迹象——短期 内不会出现显著走弱——美联储始终存在加速降息风险。若出现此类疲软迹象， 美国收益率曲线小幅趋陡。此外，我们预计德国国债收益率会上升，因为德国 市场共识接近降息周期尾声，甚至可能进入加息周期，但当前经济预测 与多数经济体实际情况接近，政策利率预测略低于市场预期，预计通缩 过程将持续至 2026 年，美联储或再降息两次。 预计英国央行今年可能降息三次，美国降息两次，瑞典央行或加拿大央 行等经济体将维持政策不变，澳大利亚央行年底前可能加息一次，多数 市场年底实际利率水平将略低于当前水平。 日本 ...

高盛：欧洲防务板块——下一步何去何从？20260110 摘要 宏观和地缘政治事件扭转持仓结构，年初对冲基金和行业机构低配国防 板块，近期因美丹就格陵兰岛问题争端而重新定价，资金流向显示投资 者偏好德国企业高增长预期，对法国标的持谨慎态度。 莱茵金属是做多欧洲防务板块的核心标的，成本价差表现优异，可使用 有限溢价结构表达多头优势，若俄乌局势超预期进展，该策略能提供选 择权和保护，劳斯莱斯则是最具吸引力的小型故事。 球性的长期趋势。几乎所有地区都在大幅增加国防开支，这一趋势大概率不会 逆转。从我们覆盖的股票及对欧洲市场的影响来看，BAE 系统公司约 45%的 销售额来自美国市场，因此其敞口遥遥领先。此外，莱昂纳多和莱茵金属同样 表现亮眼，两者约 20%至 25%的销售额来自美国市场。 本周与客户交流中，哪些领域关注度最高？哪些板块兴趣最浓厚？ 本周初德国国防领域关注度极高。去年年底，该板块出现显著估值下调，部分 原因是年底获利了结和去杠杆操作。但随着国防主题再次升温，德国作为兼具 政治意愿、政治稳定性和财政空间的高增长区域重新受到关注。在国防主题投 资中，莱茵金属这类股票是典型标的，因此其关注度回升合乎逻辑。本周 ...