Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the industry is positive, with forecasts for GDP growth in China significantly above consensus for 2025 and 2026 [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights an upward revision in GDP forecasts for China, driven by a strong manufacturing push, which is expected to enhance economic growth [5]. - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has shown a slight increase, indicating a more favorable financial environment for growth [9][32]. - Current Activity Indicators (CAI) for various regions, including China and India, reflect robust economic activity, with China reporting a CAI of +5.8% for September [54][56]. Summary by Sections GDP Forecast Changes - The report details changes in GDP forecasts for various regions, with notable increases for Taiwan (+1.9 percentage points) and Turkey (+1.2 percentage points) [6][12]. - The overall global GDP forecast has been adjusted positively, reflecting improved economic conditions across multiple countries [103][104]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI rose by +0.5 basis points over the week, suggesting a slight easing in financial conditions [9][32]. - The report provides insights into the implications of financial conditions on real GDP growth, indicating a positive correlation [45][46]. Current Activity Indicators - The CAI for the global economy stands at +2.7% for October, with developed markets at +1.5% and emerging markets at +4.5% [54][56]. - Specific countries like Spain and Australia show strong CAI values, indicating robust economic performance [54]. Wage and Price Inflation - Wage trackers indicate varying trends across different countries, with the US and Canada showing positive wage growth [73][75]. - The report discusses the impact of wage growth on inflation measures, highlighting the relationship between labor market conditions and price stability [21][22]. Fiscal Policy Impacts - The report analyzes the effects of fiscal policy on real GDP growth, with projections indicating a positive impact from expansionary fiscal measures in the US and other regions [84][89]. - It emphasizes the importance of fiscal impulses in shaping economic growth trajectories [87][90].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with an upward adjustment in China's GDP forecast based on manufacturing investment growth expectations [1][5]. Core Insights - The easing of US-China trade tensions, including a 10% reduction in tariffs and postponement of certain regulations, is expected to mitigate trade friction in the short term, although long-term impacts remain uncertain [1][2]. - China's GDP forecast has been revised upward primarily due to anticipated growth in manufacturing investments, supported by the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on advanced technology and manufacturing competitiveness [1][5]. - The Chinese government is likely to enhance monetary, fiscal, and credit policies to achieve an average growth target of 4.5% from 2026 to 2030, with a potential goal of around 5% set for 2026 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Trade Relations - Recent discussions between the US and Asian countries, particularly China, have led to a reduction in effective tariffs from over 100% to approximately 30%, with various port fees temporarily suspended [2]. - The trade agreements reached with Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia indicate a reduction in negative scenarios, although residual uncertainties remain [2]. Economic Growth Projections - The Asian economic growth outlook is moderate, with a shift from export-driven growth to reliance on domestic demand, necessitating more accommodative domestic policies [4]. - The low inflation levels in most countries provide room for monetary easing, with many expected to adopt such measures to support domestic demand growth [4]. Policy Adjustments - The Chinese government is expected to implement policies aimed at strengthening traditional industries and developing emerging sectors, focusing on both domestic consumption and international market expansion [3][10]. - The upcoming political meetings in December will be crucial for determining the direction of fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth [12][13]. Currency Outlook - A moderate depreciation of the US dollar is anticipated due to potential Fed rate cuts and a significant fiscal deficit, while the Chinese yuan may experience gradual appreciation [3][9]. - The yuan's potential for appreciation is supported by its current undervaluation and the competitive nature of Chinese exports [9].

GS Equities: Sector Sentiment + Standouts -- OCTOBER Edition ⾼盛股票研究：⾏业情绪与亮点——⼗⽉版 GS Equities: Sector Sentiment + Standouts-- OCTOBER Edition ⾼盛股票：⾏业情绪 + 精选股 -- ⼗⽉版 Quick GS Trading & Sector Specialist collab on sentiment, flows, views and more ⾼盛交易与⾏业专家就市场情绪、资⾦流向、观点等⽅⾯进⾏的快速合作 Sentiment Trends represent a subjective desk view on MoM changes in investor sentiment. 情绪趋势代表交易台对投资者情绪⽉度变化的主观看法。 Source: GS Global Banking & Markets – Public as of 10/31/2025. 来源：⾼盛全球银⾏与市场部 – 截⾄ 2025 年 10 ⽉ 31 ⽇公开信息。 TMT – Peter Calla ...

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 real GDP growth forecast for China from 4.9% to 5.0% based on government spending acceleration and commitment to economic targets [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of China's manufacturing push in driving economic growth and highlights the expected annual growth of Chinese export volumes by 5-6% [9][10]. - It notes that the fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.0 percentage point of GDP in 2026, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise [9][10]. - The report discusses the ongoing focus on high-tech manufacturing and AI investment as a counterbalance to demographic and local government debt challenges [9][10]. Summary by Sections Current State of the Economy - The 2025 real GDP growth forecast has been raised to 5.0% due to increased government spending and commitment to economic targets [6]. 2026 Macro Views - The report anticipates a real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, which is significantly above market consensus [9]. - It expects the fiscal deficit to widen and further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [9]. Medium- to Long-Term Views - Chinese export volumes are expected to grow by 5-6% annually, contributing to overall economic expansion [9]. - The report highlights the prioritization of manufacturing, technology, and security in China's 15th Five-Year Plan [9]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed forecast of various economic indicators, including GDP growth, domestic demand, consumption, and inflation rates for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]. - It notes that household consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 4.6% in 2025, with government consumption at 4.0% [13]. Policy Measures - The report outlines several policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment, including a consumer goods trade-in program and increased government spending on infrastructure [81][82].

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 30 October 2025 | 8:02AM EDT Economics Research GLOBAL ECONOMICS ANALYST AI Adoption Through the Eyes of GS Investment Bankers Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Megan Peters +44(20)7051-2058 | megan.l.peters@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their inve ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Pharmaron (3759.HK) since January 1, 2020, with a 12-month price target of HK$30.00, indicating an upside potential of 20.2% from the current price of HK$24.96 [1][12]. Core Insights - Pharmaron reported a 3Q25 revenue of Rmb3.65 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.1%, slightly exceeding Goldman Sachs estimates of Rmb3.48 billion. This growth was driven by strong performance in the CMC and bioscience segments, particularly from the top 20 large pharmaceutical clients [1][2]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to 12-16% year-over-year, up from the previous guidance of 10-15%, suggesting a potential growth of 6-20% year-over-year in 4Q25. The management is optimistic about further margin improvements in 4Q25 compared to the first nine months of 2025 [1][2]. - The report highlights robust new project order momentum, particularly in the CMC segment, where new project orders increased by 13% year-over-year for the first three quarters, with a notable 20% year-over-year rise in CMC new orders driven by large pharmaceutical demand [2][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Review - 3Q25 revenue: Rmb3.65 billion, up 13.4% y/y and 9.1% q/q, slightly above GSe of Rmb3.48 billion [1]. - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit margin improved to 12.9%, up from 11.3% in 1Q25 and 12.2% in 2Q25, supported by higher utilization rates [1]. Revenue Growth and Guidance - Full-year revenue growth guidance raised to 12-16% y/y from 10-15% y/y, implying 4Q25 growth of 6-20% y/y [1]. - Continued investment in biologics and strategic acquisitions positions Pharmaron for sustained growth in the CDMO space [1][20]. Segment Performance - CMC revenue reached Rmb903 million, up 12.7% y/y and 29.6% q/q, with a gross margin of 34.6% [2]. - Clinical development revenue was Rmb501 million, up 8.2% y/y, but gross margin declined to 10.8% due to project mix and competitive pressures [3][19]. Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of Biortus is expected to enhance Pharmaron's biologics service offerings, particularly in structural biology data supporting drug discovery [20]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025E are Rmb14,066.7 million, with EBITDA of Rmb3,532.9 million and EPS of Rmb0.91 [6][17]. - The report anticipates a 3-year earnings CAGR of 15% [21].

Economic Research Understanding Technical Analysis 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 Global Markets Economic Research Editorís email address: kevin.edgeley@gs.com Important disclosures appear on the back cover of this publication. 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Economic Research Jim OíNeill, M.D. & Head of Global Economic Research 1 Global Resea ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CMOC Group (3993.HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$19.00, representing an upside of 17.3% from the current price of HK$16.20 [1][2]. Core Insights - CMOC reported a net profit of Rmb5.61 billion for 3Q25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96%, with earnings per share (EPS) rising to Rmb0.262, up 98% year-on-year [1]. - The recurring profit growth is expected to continue, driven by rising copper prices and volume growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% for 2025-26E [2]. - The company has revised its earnings estimates upward by 8-32% for 2025-27E, reflecting a positive outlook on copper prices and the impact of new cobalt export quotas from the DRC [2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, CMOC's recurring net profit reached Rmb14.1 billion, accounting for 75% of the full-year estimate [1]. - The company expects to achieve a copper output target of 1 million tons by 2028, supported by the Cangrejos gold/copper project, which is anticipated to further enhance earnings growth [2][29]. - The report indicates that CMOC's current H-share price implies a copper price of US$8,500/t, which is lower than the spot price of US$10,900/t, suggesting potential for price appreciation if targets are met [2]. Production and Operations - CMOC's copper output in the DRC reached 543kt in 9M25, a 14% increase year-on-year, while cobalt output was 88kt, up 3.8% year-on-year [26]. - The DRC government has introduced a cobalt export quota system, allowing CMOC to export 6.5kt for the remainder of 2025 and 31.2kt annually for 2026-27E, which is expected to improve gross profit for cobalt significantly despite lower sales volume [27]. - The acquisition of Lumina Gold for C$581 million is expected to enhance CMOC's net profit by 13.1% by 2030, with significant gold and copper reserves identified at the Cangrejos project [28]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides updated revenue and earnings estimates, with total revenue projected at Rmb213,028.7 million for 2024 and Rmb192,354.5 million for 2025E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 9.2 for 2024 and 15.5 for 2025E, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 1.8 for 2024 and 3.7 for 2025E [12]. - The report indicates a free cash flow yield of 19.6% for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 6.6% in subsequent years [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish sentiment in the oil market, particularly with significant short positioning in Brent Crude [3][5]. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have surged following the announcement of sanctions on Russian oil giants by the Trump administration, raising questions about future price movements [1][13]. - Managed Money shorts in Brent Crude reached a 90% rank on a two-year lookback, indicating a strong bearish posture among traders [3][5]. - The report highlights that the recent price movements and trader behaviors suggest a potential for larger covering flows if the recent price increase holds [16][18]. Summary by Sections - **Market Reaction**: Following the sanctions on Russian oil producers, December Brent crude saw an intraday high increase of 5.5% on October 23rd, with significant movements in spreads and open interest [13][11]. - **Trader Positioning**: The Commitment of Traders data shows a substantial amount of Managed Money short positions, with a cumulative increase of $3.3 billion over four weeks [3][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the rolling six-month correlation between Managed Money spreads and front-term structure remains negative, indicating that shorts dominate the market [10]. Additionally, reports of India reducing purchases of Russian oil have contributed to market unease [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the retail sector amidst a choppy de-grossing market environment, suggesting that retail remains a dominant force despite the volatility [1][3]. Core Insights - Retail trading activity has surged, with retail investors accounting for over 16% of the total volume in S&P 500 stocks, marking a five-year high [7][9]. - The market is increasingly narrative-driven, with traders seeking compelling stories and catalysts to guide their investments [8][12]. - The volume of stocks executed by off-exchange venues, such as those serving retail platforms like Robinhood, is projected to reach 50% of total trading volume for the first time this year [9][12]. - Individual amateur investors are gravitating towards lightly regulated markets, with OTC Markets seeing an average monthly trading volume of approximately $59 billion, nearing the peak levels observed during the meme-stock frenzy [12][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in risk appetite, with retail investors remaining risk-seeking while institutional investors have adopted a more cautious stance [13][15]. Summary by Sections Trading Activity - On a recent trading day, 25.2 billion shares were traded across US equity exchanges, significantly above the year-to-date average of 17.2 billion shares [3][4]. - The top 10 stocks by trading volume accounted for approximately 8 billion shares, or 32% of the total market volume, with a majority being penny stocks favored by retail investors [4][7]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high level of gross leverage and constrained net positions, indicating a cautious approach among institutional investors [22][23]. - The report notes that the unprofitable tech sector is experiencing a sharp correction, with some stocks, like Beyond Meat, showing significant reversals [28][29]. Earnings and Economic Indicators - Overall earnings remain supportive, but market reactions to earnings reports are becoming increasingly critical, as investors appear to be taking profits during the earnings season [29][31]. - The bond market has stabilized despite ongoing fiscal excess, with both nominal and real yields compressing at the long end, which is seen as bullish for equity multiples [33][34].