3 November 2025 | 3:08PM EST Economics Research Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: China Real GDP Growth Above Consensus Following Forecast Upgrades Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Chart of the Week Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sara ...

高盛：深入了解关税和政府停摆 20251107 数据以及餐饮和消费品股票 52 周新低中可以看出。这种情绪反馈到市场上， 因为尽管机构投资者头寸有所收紧，但散户投资者仍然非常乐观，目前我们正 处于可能触发一些 CTA 止损水平。 最近几周，我们看到一些重要股票波动率上升、价格上涨和隐含波动率倒挂现 象，但美联储最新政策决定给市场带来意外影响。同时，大多数公司业绩超预 期，你如何看待这种情况？ 确实，美联储最新政策决定给市场带来了一些意外因素。但总体来看，大多数 公司业绩超出了预期，有超过 2/3 公司的业绩超出预期一个标准差以上。然而， 这些公司在单日基础上的表现低于标准普尔指数，但从长期平均来看，其表现 则超出约 100 个基点。这反映了客户头寸状况，我注意到客户总体头寸水平非 常高，我们全年 Prime 数据都显示总头寸曲线一直在直线上升。有时我都怀疑 客户是否真的会如此高度杠杆化。目前，人们热衷于做多人工智能相关股票， 同时做空任何与消费者相关的股票，比如零售业。在这种环境下，一些热门零 售股、高贝塔动量股和近期赢家出现大幅回调，而半导体股票如英伟达也出现 大幅反转。 最高法院审理 AEBA 关税案，如 ...

6 November 2025 | 10:07PM HKT Equity Research Damai Entertainment Holdings (1060.HK) First Take: Positive 1HFY26 profit alert: NP up by 50%+, above GSe; Buy 1060.HK 12m Price Target: HK$1.30 Price: HK$0.94 Upside: 38.3% On Nov 6, Damai Entertainment announce a positive profit alert for 1HFY26 with net profit attributable to owners to be no less than Rmb500mn, which is at least +7% above GSe of Rmb468mn and implying a yoy growth of 49%+. As per company, the notable growth of net profit was primarily driven b ...

2025/11/9 22:08 "每年这个时候的波动是正常现象，而非异常"：高盛交易员认为股市存在"上涨尾部" | ZeroHedge 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 优质的 ⾼盛交易员认为股市存在"上涨尾部"，并表示"每年这个时候的波 动是正常现象，⽽⾮异常"。 泰勒·德登 2025年11⽉9⽇，星期⽇，上午7:05 ⾼盛固定收益、外汇及⼤宗商品交易员 Shreeti Kapa 表示，每年这个时候出现 5% 的下跌波动是本轮⼈⼯智能周期的特 征，⽽不是异常现象。 是的，⾃四⽉低点以来确实出现了⼀波强劲反弹，但看起来并没有过度。 很难忽视年底的有利季节性因素。 SPX 和 NDX 在 23/24 ⽉份与 25 ⽉份的对⽐。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu20 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the industry is positive, with forecasts for GDP growth in China significantly above consensus for 2025 and 2026 [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights an upward revision in GDP forecasts for China, driven by a strong manufacturing push, which is expected to enhance economic growth [5]. - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has shown a slight increase, indicating a more favorable financial environment for growth [9][32]. - Current Activity Indicators (CAI) for various regions, including China and India, reflect robust economic activity, with China reporting a CAI of +5.8% for September [54][56]. Summary by Sections GDP Forecast Changes - The report details changes in GDP forecasts for various regions, with notable increases for Taiwan (+1.9 percentage points) and Turkey (+1.2 percentage points) [6][12]. - The overall global GDP forecast has been adjusted positively, reflecting improved economic conditions across multiple countries [103][104]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI rose by +0.5 basis points over the week, suggesting a slight easing in financial conditions [9][32]. - The report provides insights into the implications of financial conditions on real GDP growth, indicating a positive correlation [45][46]. Current Activity Indicators - The CAI for the global economy stands at +2.7% for October, with developed markets at +1.5% and emerging markets at +4.5% [54][56]. - Specific countries like Spain and Australia show strong CAI values, indicating robust economic performance [54]. Wage and Price Inflation - Wage trackers indicate varying trends across different countries, with the US and Canada showing positive wage growth [73][75]. - The report discusses the impact of wage growth on inflation measures, highlighting the relationship between labor market conditions and price stability [21][22]. Fiscal Policy Impacts - The report analyzes the effects of fiscal policy on real GDP growth, with projections indicating a positive impact from expansionary fiscal measures in the US and other regions [84][89]. - It emphasizes the importance of fiscal impulses in shaping economic growth trajectories [87][90].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with an upward adjustment in China's GDP forecast based on manufacturing investment growth expectations [1][5]. Core Insights - The easing of US-China trade tensions, including a 10% reduction in tariffs and postponement of certain regulations, is expected to mitigate trade friction in the short term, although long-term impacts remain uncertain [1][2]. - China's GDP forecast has been revised upward primarily due to anticipated growth in manufacturing investments, supported by the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on advanced technology and manufacturing competitiveness [1][5]. - The Chinese government is likely to enhance monetary, fiscal, and credit policies to achieve an average growth target of 4.5% from 2026 to 2030, with a potential goal of around 5% set for 2026 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Trade Relations - Recent discussions between the US and Asian countries, particularly China, have led to a reduction in effective tariffs from over 100% to approximately 30%, with various port fees temporarily suspended [2]. - The trade agreements reached with Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia indicate a reduction in negative scenarios, although residual uncertainties remain [2]. Economic Growth Projections - The Asian economic growth outlook is moderate, with a shift from export-driven growth to reliance on domestic demand, necessitating more accommodative domestic policies [4]. - The low inflation levels in most countries provide room for monetary easing, with many expected to adopt such measures to support domestic demand growth [4]. Policy Adjustments - The Chinese government is expected to implement policies aimed at strengthening traditional industries and developing emerging sectors, focusing on both domestic consumption and international market expansion [3][10]. - The upcoming political meetings in December will be crucial for determining the direction of fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth [12][13]. Currency Outlook - A moderate depreciation of the US dollar is anticipated due to potential Fed rate cuts and a significant fiscal deficit, while the Chinese yuan may experience gradual appreciation [3][9]. - The yuan's potential for appreciation is supported by its current undervaluation and the competitive nature of Chinese exports [9].

GS Equities: Sector Sentiment + Standouts -- OCTOBER Edition ⾼盛股票研究：⾏业情绪与亮点——⼗⽉版 GS Equities: Sector Sentiment + Standouts-- OCTOBER Edition ⾼盛股票：⾏业情绪 + 精选股 -- ⼗⽉版 Quick GS Trading & Sector Specialist collab on sentiment, flows, views and more ⾼盛交易与⾏业专家就市场情绪、资⾦流向、观点等⽅⾯进⾏的快速合作 Sentiment Trends represent a subjective desk view on MoM changes in investor sentiment. 情绪趋势代表交易台对投资者情绪⽉度变化的主观看法。 Source: GS Global Banking & Markets – Public as of 10/31/2025. 来源：⾼盛全球银⾏与市场部 – 截⾄ 2025 年 10 ⽉ 31 ⽇公开信息。 TMT – Peter Calla ...

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 real GDP growth forecast for China from 4.9% to 5.0% based on government spending acceleration and commitment to economic targets [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of China's manufacturing push in driving economic growth and highlights the expected annual growth of Chinese export volumes by 5-6% [9][10]. - It notes that the fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.0 percentage point of GDP in 2026, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise [9][10]. - The report discusses the ongoing focus on high-tech manufacturing and AI investment as a counterbalance to demographic and local government debt challenges [9][10]. Summary by Sections Current State of the Economy - The 2025 real GDP growth forecast has been raised to 5.0% due to increased government spending and commitment to economic targets [6]. 2026 Macro Views - The report anticipates a real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, which is significantly above market consensus [9]. - It expects the fiscal deficit to widen and further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [9]. Medium- to Long-Term Views - Chinese export volumes are expected to grow by 5-6% annually, contributing to overall economic expansion [9]. - The report highlights the prioritization of manufacturing, technology, and security in China's 15th Five-Year Plan [9]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed forecast of various economic indicators, including GDP growth, domestic demand, consumption, and inflation rates for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]. - It notes that household consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 4.6% in 2025, with government consumption at 4.0% [13]. Policy Measures - The report outlines several policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment, including a consumer goods trade-in program and increased government spending on infrastructure [81][82].

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 30 October 2025 | 8:02AM EDT Economics Research GLOBAL ECONOMICS ANALYST AI Adoption Through the Eyes of GS Investment Bankers Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Megan Peters +44(20)7051-2058 | megan.l.peters@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their inve ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Pharmaron (3759.HK) since January 1, 2020, with a 12-month price target of HK$30.00, indicating an upside potential of 20.2% from the current price of HK$24.96 [1][12]. Core Insights - Pharmaron reported a 3Q25 revenue of Rmb3.65 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.1%, slightly exceeding Goldman Sachs estimates of Rmb3.48 billion. This growth was driven by strong performance in the CMC and bioscience segments, particularly from the top 20 large pharmaceutical clients [1][2]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to 12-16% year-over-year, up from the previous guidance of 10-15%, suggesting a potential growth of 6-20% year-over-year in 4Q25. The management is optimistic about further margin improvements in 4Q25 compared to the first nine months of 2025 [1][2]. - The report highlights robust new project order momentum, particularly in the CMC segment, where new project orders increased by 13% year-over-year for the first three quarters, with a notable 20% year-over-year rise in CMC new orders driven by large pharmaceutical demand [2][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Review - 3Q25 revenue: Rmb3.65 billion, up 13.4% y/y and 9.1% q/q, slightly above GSe of Rmb3.48 billion [1]. - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit margin improved to 12.9%, up from 11.3% in 1Q25 and 12.2% in 2Q25, supported by higher utilization rates [1]. Revenue Growth and Guidance - Full-year revenue growth guidance raised to 12-16% y/y from 10-15% y/y, implying 4Q25 growth of 6-20% y/y [1]. - Continued investment in biologics and strategic acquisitions positions Pharmaron for sustained growth in the CDMO space [1][20]. Segment Performance - CMC revenue reached Rmb903 million, up 12.7% y/y and 29.6% q/q, with a gross margin of 34.6% [2]. - Clinical development revenue was Rmb501 million, up 8.2% y/y, but gross margin declined to 10.8% due to project mix and competitive pressures [3][19]. Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of Biortus is expected to enhance Pharmaron's biologics service offerings, particularly in structural biology data supporting drug discovery [20]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025E are Rmb14,066.7 million, with EBITDA of Rmb3,532.9 million and EPS of Rmb0.91 [6][17]. - The report anticipates a 3-year earnings CAGR of 15% [21].