GOAL KICKSTART Goldilocks sprint – GS views for 2026 vs. market pricing YTD Since the start of 2026, macroeconomic prints mostly surprised to the upside. While US NFPs came in somewhat below expectations, the US unemployment rate declined to 4.4%. German manufacturing orders and industrial production came in above consensus, while Euro area inflation data was softer than consensus. Market sentiment has also started strongly, with our Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) accelerating and moving above 0.9 last week ...

高盛：研究深度解析：大型软件股启动 20260112 ServiceNow 已确立行动系统地位，可通过收购增强协调层功能。甲骨 文的数据中心部署和 OCI 业务收入确认显示长期盈利能力。DataDog 因兼容环境可观测性提升而备受看好。 顶尖安全软件平台如 CrowdStrike、CloudFlare 和 Palo Alto Networks 受益于数字化转型，具备持续增长潜力，与微软、 ServiceNow 类似。 您提到 AI 市场规模接近 5 万亿美元，并且采用趋势可能好转，竞争可能缓解。 那么，我们应该关注哪些类型的公司？ 我们建议关注 AI 应用提供商，包括上市公司和私营企业。未来企业必然是智能 体与人类协同工作的模式，因此现有 SaaS 龙头企业如微软、Salesforce 和 ServiceNow 等，将有机会在智能体与传统人工工作流并存的时代成为企业软 件领导者。这些公司需要完成平台重构，确保技术平台组件互联互通，并通过 有机增长与非有机创新相结合来整合产品组合。此外，还需解决变现问题，通 过提升用户采用率后再启动定价变现机制。我们将重点追踪 AI 商业化相关披露 信息，以判断基本面是否出现拐 ...

2025 年标普价格涨幅达 16%，其中 14 个百分点由盈利贡献。预计 2026 年盈利增长 12%，对应标普指数 12%的回报率，市盈率维持在 22 倍，宏观模型显示利率、增长率和盈利能力未发生实质变化，风险分 布偏向上行。 尽管利率上升，但仍低于长期平均水平，标普 500 盈利能力创数十年新 高。家庭部门需将三分之一投资组合重新配置为股票以维持长期估值倍 数，但结构性因素导致这种情况难以实现。 超大规模企业 AI 相关支出接近 5,500 亿美元，同比增长近 40%，但增 速放缓。AI 交易将从基础设施类股转向其他部分，一些公司已展示 AI 应 用带来的实际盈利影响。 预计今年生产力增长 0.5%，明年 1.5%，数值虽小但逐步增加。当前 IPO 数量低于长期平均水平，但多项宏观指标显示 2026 年 IPO 环境将 有所改善，预计今年 IPO 数量增加。 美股每日需求达 40 至 50 亿美元，回购需求放缓，但不会显著改变股票 供需平衡，为向股东返还现金的公司创造稀缺性溢价。该主题在当前投 资环境、现金支出环境及债务环境下会延续。 Q&A 2026 年标普指数的走势如何？目标点位是多少？背后的逻辑是什 ...

Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs upgrades the investment rating for the Asia-Pacific region, specifically the MX APJ index, with a 12-month target raised to 825 points, indicating a 14% price return in USD and a total return of 17% [1][2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is viewed as constructive, with U.S. GDP growth expected to exceed market consensus at 2.6%, and the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates twice before mid-year, which typically benefits Asian markets [3][4]. - Earnings growth for 2026 is projected to be strong, increasing from 10% to 19%, with significant contributions from North Asia, India, and cyclical sectors [1][5]. - Valuations are considered reasonable but slightly high, with a forecasted slight compression from 15x to 14.6x, indicating that corporate earnings will be the primary driver of stock market returns [6]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook is positive, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.6% and AEG growth around 4.8%. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, leading to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for Asian markets [3][4]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings growth is anticipated to rise significantly, with overall growth expected to reach 19%. The recovery in quarterly earnings is attributed to easing base effects, and the ERI indicator suggests a positive outlook for earnings revisions [5]. Valuation Perspective - Current valuations are slightly above historical averages, with the region's price-to-earnings ratio at 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term mean. Earnings will be crucial for driving stock market returns this year [6]. Fund Flow Trends - There has been a significant outflow of approximately $100 billion from overseas investors, with current mutual fund allocations 75 basis points below benchmarks, indicating potential for rebuilding positions in the region [7][8]. Sector and Industry Focus - Investment in large-scale enterprises is expected to grow by 34% to approximately $550 billion, benefiting sectors such as hardware, semiconductors, and AI. The "Asian Energy Upgrade" theme is highlighted, focusing on nuclear power, electricity, and renewable energy [9]. - The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China presents opportunities for U.S. re-industrialization, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing investments in response to U.S. demand [10]. China Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain robust, with the MSCI China index projected to rise by 15%-17% and the CSI 300 index by about 10%. Profit growth is forecasted to increase significantly from 4% to 14% [13][14]. India Market Strategy - The Indian market rating has been upgraded to "overweight," with expected earnings growth of around 15%. Key sectors include finance, consumer goods, and industrials, particularly in defense and energy security [16][19].

高盛闭门会--2026 年 G10 利率展望：通缩缓解降低了久 期风险 20260110 摘要 在我们的宏观观点中存在通缩因素，预计年底将接近目标水平。目前环境下， 我们预测波动性不高。对于主要经济体 10 年期基准利率，我们预计美国利率 将横盘整理至 4.2%。尽管久期风险依然存在，今年（2026 年）财政风险和经 济增长前景略有改善。如果通胀走势保持相对可控，即便债券供给量大，也能 催生债券需求。因此，这是我们美国利率预测的重要考量因素之一。 我们倾向 于认为美国收益率曲线趋陡。如果劳动力市场数据出现任何走弱迹象——短期 内不会出现显著走弱——美联储始终存在加速降息风险。若出现此类疲软迹象， 美国收益率曲线小幅趋陡。此外，我们预计德国国债收益率会上升，因为德国 市场共识接近降息周期尾声，甚至可能进入加息周期，但当前经济预测 与多数经济体实际情况接近，政策利率预测略低于市场预期，预计通缩 过程将持续至 2026 年，美联储或再降息两次。 预计英国央行今年可能降息三次，美国降息两次，瑞典央行或加拿大央 行等经济体将维持政策不变，澳大利亚央行年底前可能加息一次，多数 市场年底实际利率水平将略低于当前水平。 日本 ...

高盛：欧洲防务板块——下一步何去何从？20260110 摘要 宏观和地缘政治事件扭转持仓结构，年初对冲基金和行业机构低配国防 板块，近期因美丹就格陵兰岛问题争端而重新定价，资金流向显示投资 者偏好德国企业高增长预期，对法国标的持谨慎态度。 莱茵金属是做多欧洲防务板块的核心标的，成本价差表现优异，可使用 有限溢价结构表达多头优势，若俄乌局势超预期进展，该策略能提供选 择权和保护，劳斯莱斯则是最具吸引力的小型故事。 球性的长期趋势。几乎所有地区都在大幅增加国防开支，这一趋势大概率不会 逆转。从我们覆盖的股票及对欧洲市场的影响来看，BAE 系统公司约 45%的 销售额来自美国市场，因此其敞口遥遥领先。此外，莱昂纳多和莱茵金属同样 表现亮眼，两者约 20%至 25%的销售额来自美国市场。 本周与客户交流中，哪些领域关注度最高？哪些板块兴趣最浓厚？ 本周初德国国防领域关注度极高。去年年底，该板块出现显著估值下调，部分 原因是年底获利了结和去杠杆操作。但随着国防主题再次升温，德国作为兼具 政治意愿、政治稳定性和财政空间的高增长区域重新受到关注。在国防主题投 资中，莱茵金属这类股票是典型标的，因此其关注度回升合乎逻辑。本周 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, with expectations that demand growth will exceed non-OPEC supply growth post-2027, suggesting a potential bottom for oil prices this year [1][4]. Core Insights - The oil market outlook has improved slightly, with investors showing a more favorable view on oil, while maintaining a cautious stance on natural gas [3][4]. - The natural gas market faces challenges due to an influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, with significant pressure anticipated from 2027 to 2029 [1][12]. - The overall activity level in the U.S. onshore oil and gas sector is expected to remain stable in 2026, with WTI crude oil prices potentially stabilizing around $40 per barrel [7]. - Canadian energy companies are gaining attention, with reduced selling pressure on Canadian oil stocks, particularly Suncor Energy, despite recent volatility due to geopolitical factors [9][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Market - Investors are slightly more optimistic about the oil market, with expectations of demand growth surpassing non-OPEC supply growth after 2027 [1][4]. - ConocoPhillips and Chevron are highlighted as companies to watch, particularly in relation to the evolving situation in Venezuela [5]. Natural Gas Market - The U.S. natural gas production is expected to grow at over 3%, but the LNG market is facing significant supply challenges [1][12]. - The report emphasizes a cautious outlook for natural gas, with a focus on the potential impacts of supply influx on pricing [12]. U.S. Onshore Oil and Gas Activity - The report anticipates that overall activity levels in the U.S. onshore oil and gas sector will remain stable in 2026, with no significant adjustments expected [7]. - The report notes that if WTI prices drop to the $40 range, the industry activity is likely to remain relatively stable [7]. Canadian Energy Sector - Canadian oil stocks are experiencing reduced selling pressure, with Suncor Energy being a notable player despite recent challenges [9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of Canadian companies in the global energy landscape, particularly in terms of technological innovation and sustainability [8]. Refining Industry - The global refining capacity is expected to grow at a slower pace than refined oil demand, leading to a structurally tighter market [22]. - The report suggests that the refining sector will perform well in the next 6 to 12 months, although it may face consolidation pressures [22].

高盛闭门会-脉动中国-中国 2026 房地产展望 20260109 摘要 预计未来两年二手房价格将下降 10%-15%，成交量稳定在 6 亿平方米 左右，但租金收益率复苏缓慢，对价格支撑有限。新建住房销售虽有下 降，但去化率或略有反弹，整体房地产销售预计有中高位数的下降。 土地销售在 2025 年上半年复苏后放缓，预计 2026-2027 年集中在一 二线城市，新开工面积可能在 2027 年底降至 5 亿平方米以下。房地产 投资预计回落至 6.3 万亿元，低于当年销售规模约 15%。 开发商面临融资难题，民营开发商利息负担攀升，即使是未违约的大型 开发商也难以幸免，利息费用占合同销售额比例达 8%-9%，主要由民 营企业承担，加大了还款压力。 龙湖等民营企业销售收缩明显，利润率急剧下滑，平均 interest coverage 从最高 2.6 倍降至 1.4-1.5 倍。A 股上市房企（特别是民营 企业）的 interest coverage ratio 普遍较低甚至为负值，银行展期意 愿成疑。 28 家有流动性压力的开发商（19 家已重组）销售额占比从 2020-2021 年的 36%降至 2024 年的 ...

高盛闭门会-亚洲和中国经济 2026 展望，中国印度引领增 长日本，闪辉谈中国新增长和结构性转型 20260110 摘要 全球经济展望：预计 2026 年全球经济增长将高于市场一致预期，受益 于宽松的金融环境、政策不确定性降低、AI 投资以及政策宽松。新兴市 场通胀压力有望缓解，油价下跌和部分地区食品价格压力减轻是主要因 素。 美国经济与政策：预计美联储将在 2026 年上半年再降息两次。2025 年通过的税收与支出法案将在 2026 年上半年对美国经济产生积极的财 政刺激效果，支撑高于市场共识的增长预期。 亚洲经济形势：对亚洲整体经济形势持乐观态度，当前活动指标显示中 位数和平均增长表现均在 5%左右。预计 2026 年开局良好，将再次优 于市场共识预期，尤其看好中国和印度在 AI 芯片出口方面的表现。 中国经济转型：中国需寻找新的增长引擎，包括开拓美国以外的新兴市 场和摆脱对房地产行业的依赖。预计中国实际出口额将保持每年 5%至 6%的增速，经常账户盈余占 GDP 比重将升至 4.2%。 Q&A 2026 年全球经济增长的总体预期如何？ 我们对 2026 年全球经济增长持乐观态度，预计增速为 2.8%，高 ...

Investment Rating - The report projects a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2026, which is above the consensus expectation of 4.5% [7]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing competitiveness and rare earth controls are expected to drive export volumes growth of 5-6% annually [7]. - The current account surplus is projected to be 4.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the consensus of 2.5% [7]. - Although the property market has not yet bottomed, its negative impact on GDP growth is expected to lessen [7]. - Government consumption growth is anticipated to increase, compensating for weak household consumption in 2026 [7]. - Investment is expected to rebound from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Economic Growth - The report anticipates a gradual reflation process in China, with PPI inflation expected to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026 and headline CPI inflation increasing from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.2 percentage points of GDP, reaching 12.2% in 2026 [33]. Policy Outlook - The report expects a 20 basis points cut in policy rates and a year-end USDCNY exchange rate of 6.85 [7]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan continues to prioritize manufacturing, technology, and security [7]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is expected to rebound in 2026 due to policy support and a low base effect [42]. - The report highlights that the high-tech sector is projected to contribute an average of 1 percentage point to real GDP growth over the next five years [59].