26 November 2025 | 7:11PM CST Equity Research Li Auto Inc. (LI): 3Q25 First Take: EBIT miss on higher opex and one-time recall cost, 4Q25E revenue/volume guidance in line with GSe Li Auto reported 3Q25 result – total revenue beat by 6%, gross profit missed by 13% (but 8% above GSe if excluding one-time recall cost of around Rmb1.1bn from MEGA), and operating profit missed on higher opex. If excluding the impact from related recall cost, we see gross profit was around Rmb5,571mn (+8% vs. GSe) and operating l ...

高盛闭门会-脉动中国-2026 政策预期 20251125 摘要 中国财政支出增速低于预期，因出口增长使全年 5%增长目标可期，财 政主动预留明年支出空间，导致 10 月广义财政意外收紧，但维持 2025 年四季度 GDP 增长 4.5%的预测，全年增速 5%，部分政策空间预留至 2026 年，实现开门红。 10 月社会零售总额显示，化妆品和珠宝因双十一提前环比加速，预计 11 月回落。以旧换新补贴下的家电、汽车销售额已落后于其他品类，表 明价格促销和临时补贴无法持续推动耐用品消费，房价下跌和劳动力市 场疲软抑制消费意愿。 中国经济政策明年重点是稳内需、支持高新技术制造业和稳定房地产市 场，将在政治局会议及中央经济工作会议上讨论定调。地方和全国两会 将在 2026 年初召开，公布年度增长目标及五年规划关键量化指标，对 未来经济走向至关重要。 劳动力市场虽略有改善但仍处历史低位，限制居民消费复苏。9 月消费 者信心小幅改善，可能受股市影响，高端消费市场出现复苏迹象。整体 居民消费偏弱，需关注 2026 年如何刺激消费。 Q&A 近期市场对中国房地产政策的预期是什么？ 市场普遍预期中国将出台一些温和的、因城施策的 ...

25 November 2025 | 3:37PM HKT Economics Research GS China Econ Proprietary Indicators: November Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind our proprietary economic indicators can be downloaded here (methodology notes available in the appendix). Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. GS Proprietary Economic Indicators Exhibit 1: Our China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) fell to +4.7% mom annualized sa in October from +5.9% in Se ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese biopharmaceutical industry, highlighting significant advancements in drug development efficiency and global collaboration strategies. Core Insights - Chinese biopharmaceutical companies have significantly shortened drug development cycles through streamlined decision-making processes and enhanced research capabilities, with some drugs taking only four years from clinical trials to NDA acceptance [1][2] - External licensing has become a crucial strategy for Chinese companies to globalize, with many firms actively building business development teams to foster collaborations with large multinational pharmaceutical companies [1][5] - There is a strong interest in emerging drug modalities such as ADCs, small nucleic acid drugs, and in vivo CAR-T therapies, which are becoming integral parts of the R&D pipeline and are expected to drive next-generation product innovation [1][6] - Global investors are particularly focused on weight loss products and Lipoprotein A (Lp(a)) projects, indicating substantial growth potential in cardiovascular disease-related products [1][4] Summary by Sections Drug Development Efficiency - Chinese companies like Heng Rui have demonstrated impressive development timelines, with processes from GLP E Tox to IND taking only six months and clinical trials to NDA acceptance completed in four years [2] Globalization Strategies - Chinese biopharmaceutical firms are addressing globalization challenges by collaborating with multinational pharmaceutical companies, moving from traditional licensing to co-development models [5] Emerging Drug Modalities - The report emphasizes the enthusiasm of Chinese companies in exploring new drug forms, particularly ADCs and small nucleic acid drugs, which are becoming key components of their R&D pipelines [2][6] Market Focus Areas - Investors are keenly interested in weight loss products and Lp(a) projects, with significant attention on cardiovascular disease collaborations, indicating a robust growth trajectory in these areas [4] Company-Specific Developments - He Yu Pharmaceutical's Pimiatinib is projected to capture a 25% global market share in key indications, with peak sales potentially reaching $1.6 billion [7] - Kangnuo's Sluqi monoclonal antibody is expected to exceed RMB 5 billion in peak sales by 2035, with promising prospects in multiple indications [10] - Hanlin Pharmaceutical is recognized for its high-margin biosimilar business, supporting its innovative pipeline, with the PD-L1 ADC HLX43 expected to achieve peak sales of $3.8 billion [11][12]

高盛闭门会-中国肥胖症专家调研，药物格局市场和商业模 式 20251124 摘要 中国肥胖患病率约为 50%，肥胖人群主要关注外表改善而非疾病后果， 但新型药物问世及超重人群增多，正推动医疗干预需求，提高临床渗透 率需加强公众教育，认识到医疗干预的重要性。 中国减重市场潜力巨大，尤其在阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停等并发症领域，但 需投入大量教育成本。应关注 2 型糖尿病患者中普遍存在的肌肉问题， 强调疾病的长期管理，借鉴糖尿病发展经验。 中国市场上已有多种减重药物，包括半金和涨潮等，未来还将有更多国 产新药和优质仿制药上市。医生需根据疗效、成本和患者具体情况，推 荐有效且经济可行的治疗方案。 利利斯玛已在中国上市，但未纳入医保影响市场表现，口服制剂因使用 方便和成本较低，有望提高偏远地区覆盖率，成为未来治疗方案的重要 组成部分，需做好市场准备。 在线渠道已成为抗肥胖药物的重要销售途径，但易导致药物滥用。品牌 忠诚度对仿制药市场有影响，价格敏感性在年轻一代中尤为明显，需关 注线上销售监管。 Q&A 您能否大致介绍一下中国的肥胖流行情况？中国人和西方人在肥胖方面是否存 在差异？这些差异如何影响治疗方案？ 根据中国的诊断标准 ...

高盛周末宏观电话会议 20251124 摘要 美国失业率升至 4.4%，持续申领人数创新高，表明劳动力市场存在剩 余空间，美联储或因此在 12 月降息 25 个基点，但 FOMC 内部对此存 在分歧。 11 月就业报告是影响美联储决策的关键数据，但 12 月 10 日 FOMC 会 议前重要数据不多，CPI 可能推迟发布，美联储或采取温和立场。 美国经济数据显示就业市场恶化，失业率从年初 4%升至 4.4%，AI 裁 员预示劳动力市场疲软，美联储 12 月降息合理，2026 年底联邦基金利 率或接近 3%，甚至更低。 2026 年上半年美国将出台大量刺激政策，结合宽松金融条件和降息， 将影响收益率曲线，财政可持续性担忧缓解，对长端收益率曲线压制作 用减弱。 AI 相关债券发行增加，TMT 公司为 AI 开发大量发债，今年 TMT 公司发 行近 2000 亿企业债，其中 AI 相关债务达 1,000 亿，挑战现金市场吸收 风险能力，导致信用市场表现不佳。 Q&A 最近的就业数据和劳动力市场情况如何？ 接下来哪些重要的数据会影响美联储的决策？ 在 12 月 10 日 FOMC 会议之前，没有太多重要的新数据发布。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for China in a regional context, favoring North Asia markets with a moderately cyclical sector emphasis [87]. Core Insights - The MSCI China index has rebounded 80% from its cycle lows in late 2022, with expectations for a sustained uptrend, forecasting key indexes to rise 30-40% and reach all-time highs by the end of 2027 [4]. - The report emphasizes strategies such as "buying the dip" and focusing on alpha through specific themes like AI, "Going Global" leaders, and small-cap A-shares [5][6]. - The pro-market policy environment is expected to remain supportive, with measures aimed at stimulating demand and enhancing shareholder returns [6][31]. - Earnings growth is projected to accelerate to low-teen levels, driven by AI advancements and anti-involution measures [38][41]. - Valuations are considered attractive, with the current forward P/E ratio at 12.9x, compared to a macro model implied P/E of 13.7x [70][71]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report forecasts a 30% rise in Chinese equities over the next two years, supported by low-teen trend profit growth and moderate P/E expansion [20][18]. - The transition from a "Hope" phase to a "Growth" phase in the equity cycle is highlighted, where profit growth is expected to drive equity returns [23]. Policy Environment - The report outlines a favorable policy landscape, with ongoing monetary and fiscal support aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [31][27]. - Specific measures include a reduction in housing transaction taxes and increased funding for consumption initiatives [31]. Earnings and Valuation - Trend EPS growth is expected to reach 12%, bolstered by AI, anti-involution, and global expansion strategies [38][39]. - The report notes that Chinese equities are currently trading at mid-cycle valuations, with significant discounts compared to developed markets [64][67]. Capital Flows - There is a structural migration of capital towards equities, with trillions of dollars in potential asset reallocation flows anticipated [75][78]. - Foreign investor positioning in Chinese stocks has shown modest improvement, indicating a renewed interest in the market [81].

Investment Rating - The report indicates uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, with a previous expectation of a 75 basis point reduction lacking data support [4][10]. Core Insights - The market has largely priced in the expectation of a rate cut, but confidence is gradually declining, particularly in the AI investment sector, leading to increased short-term uncertainty [1][3]. - Large corporations are increasingly turning to debt financing, which may lead to more leverage in the system and potential corporate imbalances [5]. - The labor market is undergoing adjustments, with a shift from "no hiring, no layoffs" to "no hiring, some layoffs," indicating heightened risks [6]. - Companies are betting on AI to enhance efficiency and productivity, with significant increases in technology budgets, although the effectiveness remains unproven [7][8]. - Different market segments are showing significant performance disparities, with overall economic pressures expected to persist, particularly affecting subprime and low-end consumer markets [9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is currently hindered by a lack of data, making it difficult to assess labor market risks and inflation dynamics [2][10]. Market Conditions - The current market is in a high-level consolidation phase, with upcoming significant events expected to clarify uncertainties [3]. Corporate Debt Financing - There is a notable trend of large corporations shifting towards debt financing, which may indicate a transition to a more normalized financial environment [5]. Labor Market Trends - Recent layoffs suggest a transition in the labor market, with potential increases in unemployment rates that need to be monitored over the next 3-6 months [6]. AI Investment Trends - Companies are significantly increasing their technology budgets in anticipation of AI-driven efficiency gains, though the long-term impacts remain to be evaluated [7][8]. Economic Segment Performance - The overall economic landscape is under pressure, with specific segments like subprime and low-end consumers facing challenges, while potential improvements depend on inflation and income conditions [9].

Q&A 今年伦敦碳排放会议的主要讨论主题是什么？ 今年伦敦碳排放会议的主要讨论主题包括能源需求增长、人工智能和数据中心 的电力需求增长、能源安全问题、电网投资以及储能如何帮助解决这些问题。 会议还探讨了加速电力需求和更广泛的能源需求，尤其是天然气重新成为关键 过渡燃料，以及石油需求预计将持续增长到 2040 年。此外，会议还讨论了监 管政策变化对清洁技术发展的影响，包括美国通胀减免法案和欧盟排放交易体 系（EUETS）的实施。 高盛：碳经济学大会心得：利用人工智能数据中心加速能 源需求的'全方位'方法 20251121 摘要 人工智能和数据中心驱动能源需求显著增长，对现有电力基础设施构成 挑战，需要新的能源供应以支持数字化转型，尤其关注现有场地连接数 据中心的价值。 天然气重新成为关键过渡燃料，石油需求预计持续增长至 2040 年，尽 管可再生能源发展强劲，但化石燃料在部分地区仍占据重要地位，塑料 等领域对石油需求依然坚挺。 美国通胀减免法案对清洁技术发展产生积极影响，德克萨斯州成为美国 清洁技术中心之一；欧盟排放交易体系（EUETS）的影响及边境调整机 制启动后的效果值得关注。 欧洲电力需求在过去 15 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting a focus on emerging industries with significant policy support [1][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that active investment strategies outperform passive ones, with the past decade's performance of the Chinese Embassy Index at an annualized return of only 2.2%, significantly lower than GDP growth [1][3]. - Emerging industries supported by the Five-Year Plan have yielded an average return of 40% over the past five years, surpassing the CSI 300 Index, which remained flat during the same period [3][5]. - The report identifies 35 sub-industries with a total market capitalization of $13 trillion as investment targets under the "14th Five-Year Plan," based on a detailed analysis of 400 policy-related statements [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - A flagship investment portfolio has been constructed, consisting of 50 stocks across 21 sectors, including artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and clean energy, with a growth of 36% over the past year, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 13 percentage points [1][6][8]. - The selection criteria for stocks include growth expectations of over 20% in sales or earnings within two years, a PEG ratio below 2.5, and a focus on high-quality companies [6][7]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights that the Asian market is more susceptible to policy support, with a focus on small to medium-sized tech hardware and semiconductor companies in the onshore market, while offshore markets are directed towards large internet companies and undervalued firms [7][8]. - Domestic consumption is a key priority in the Five-Year Plan, with significant potential in sectors like tourism, entertainment, and new consumption themes, which are expected to benefit from policy backing [9][10]. Policy Impact - The inclusion of anti-pollution measures in the Five-Year Plan is projected to enhance corporate earnings by approximately 1.5% over the next five years, particularly benefiting heavily impacted sectors such as chemicals and metals [11][12]. - The report suggests that the next significant policy clarity will emerge during the March meetings, which will be crucial for adjusting investment strategies [12].