高盛闭门会-亚洲和中国 2026 股票策略，超配中韩印的理 由，首席策略师谈中国四大主题 20260110 高盛将亚太地区 MX APJ 指数 12 个月目标上调至 825 点，预计美元价 格回报为 14%，总回报为 17%，但认为回报可能不及 2025 年，建议 关注北亚、印度及周期性板块，通过核心主题创造超额收益。 高盛认为当前宏观环境具有建设性，美国 GDP 增速高于市场共识，美联 储或年中前再降息两次，美元指数将进一步贬值，通常利好亚洲市场。 预计 2026 年盈利增长强劲，从 10%提升至 19%。 高盛认为当前估值大致合理但略高，全年预测中计入小幅估值压缩，盈 利将是股市回报的核心驱动因素。海外投资者累计抛售约 1,000 亿美元， 共同基金配置较基准低 75 个基点，存在重建头寸空间。 高盛预计超大规模企业 2026 年投资增长 34%至约 5,500 亿美元，利 好硬件、半导体及 AI 领域。能源供应存在缺口，看好"亚洲能源升级" 主题，涵盖核电、电力及可再生能源等领域。 美中战略紧张局势带来美国再工业化机会，韩国、日本等国对美追加投 资，利好直接受益于美国需求增长或在工业技术、材料领域宣布对 ...

高盛闭门会--2026 年 G10 利率展望：通缩缓解降低了久 期风险 20260110 摘要 在我们的宏观观点中存在通缩因素，预计年底将接近目标水平。目前环境下， 我们预测波动性不高。对于主要经济体 10 年期基准利率，我们预计美国利率 将横盘整理至 4.2%。尽管久期风险依然存在，今年（2026 年）财政风险和经 济增长前景略有改善。如果通胀走势保持相对可控，即便债券供给量大，也能 催生债券需求。因此，这是我们美国利率预测的重要考量因素之一。 我们倾向 于认为美国收益率曲线趋陡。如果劳动力市场数据出现任何走弱迹象——短期 内不会出现显著走弱——美联储始终存在加速降息风险。若出现此类疲软迹象， 美国收益率曲线小幅趋陡。此外，我们预计德国国债收益率会上升，因为德国 市场共识接近降息周期尾声，甚至可能进入加息周期，但当前经济预测 与多数经济体实际情况接近，政策利率预测略低于市场预期，预计通缩 过程将持续至 2026 年，美联储或再降息两次。 预计英国央行今年可能降息三次，美国降息两次，瑞典央行或加拿大央 行等经济体将维持政策不变，澳大利亚央行年底前可能加息一次，多数 市场年底实际利率水平将略低于当前水平。 日本 ...

高盛：欧洲防务板块——下一步何去何从？20260110 摘要 宏观和地缘政治事件扭转持仓结构，年初对冲基金和行业机构低配国防 板块，近期因美丹就格陵兰岛问题争端而重新定价，资金流向显示投资 者偏好德国企业高增长预期，对法国标的持谨慎态度。 莱茵金属是做多欧洲防务板块的核心标的，成本价差表现优异，可使用 有限溢价结构表达多头优势，若俄乌局势超预期进展，该策略能提供选 择权和保护，劳斯莱斯则是最具吸引力的小型故事。 球性的长期趋势。几乎所有地区都在大幅增加国防开支，这一趋势大概率不会 逆转。从我们覆盖的股票及对欧洲市场的影响来看，BAE 系统公司约 45%的 销售额来自美国市场，因此其敞口遥遥领先。此外，莱昂纳多和莱茵金属同样 表现亮眼，两者约 20%至 25%的销售额来自美国市场。 本周与客户交流中，哪些领域关注度最高？哪些板块兴趣最浓厚？ 本周初德国国防领域关注度极高。去年年底，该板块出现显著估值下调，部分 原因是年底获利了结和去杠杆操作。但随着国防主题再次升温，德国作为兼具 政治意愿、政治稳定性和财政空间的高增长区域重新受到关注。在国防主题投 资中，莱茵金属这类股票是典型标的，因此其关注度回升合乎逻辑。本周 ...

高盛闭门会-2026 年能源、清洁技术与公用事业大会要点 总结 20260110 摘要 石油市场：投资者对石油前景略有改善，预计 2027 年后需求增速将超 过非欧佩克供应增速，今年或现油价底部，但需关注委内瑞拉局势变化 对康菲石油和雪佛龙的影响，特别是康菲石油可能收回委内瑞拉政府拖 欠的 120 亿美元。 天然气市场：投资者对天然气市场持谨慎态度，美国天然气产量持续增 长，预计未来增速将保持在 3%以上，但液化天然气市场面临大量供应 涌入的挑战，2027-2029 年市场压力较大，美国 LNG 企业及天然气企 业仍面临风险。 美国陆上油气活动：预计 2026 年整体活跃度与 2025 年底持平，WTI 原油价格若跌至 40 美元区间，行业活跃度将保持相对平稳，海恩斯维 尔地区天然气供应稳定，但天然气液体利润率全面压缩，对部分公司影 响重大。 加拿大能源企业：今年参会者对加拿大石油股的抛售意愿降低，森科尔 能源在委内瑞拉局势引发的抛售潮中跌幅较大，但其日均产量超过 90 万桶，执行层面表现出色，仍被视为佼佼者，需关注委内瑞拉重油进入 墨西哥湾沿岸的影响。 投资者应如何应对委内瑞拉局势变化带来的影响？哪些公司值 ...

高盛闭门会-脉动中国-中国 2026 房地产展望 20260109 摘要 预计未来两年二手房价格将下降 10%-15%，成交量稳定在 6 亿平方米 左右，但租金收益率复苏缓慢，对价格支撑有限。新建住房销售虽有下 降，但去化率或略有反弹，整体房地产销售预计有中高位数的下降。 土地销售在 2025 年上半年复苏后放缓，预计 2026-2027 年集中在一 二线城市，新开工面积可能在 2027 年底降至 5 亿平方米以下。房地产 投资预计回落至 6.3 万亿元，低于当年销售规模约 15%。 开发商面临融资难题，民营开发商利息负担攀升，即使是未违约的大型 开发商也难以幸免，利息费用占合同销售额比例达 8%-9%，主要由民 营企业承担，加大了还款压力。 龙湖等民营企业销售收缩明显，利润率急剧下滑，平均 interest coverage 从最高 2.6 倍降至 1.4-1.5 倍。A 股上市房企（特别是民营 企业）的 interest coverage ratio 普遍较低甚至为负值，银行展期意 愿成疑。 28 家有流动性压力的开发商（19 家已重组）销售额占比从 2020-2021 年的 36%降至 2024 年的 ...

高盛闭门会-亚洲和中国经济 2026 展望，中国印度引领增 长日本，闪辉谈中国新增长和结构性转型 20260110 摘要 全球经济展望：预计 2026 年全球经济增长将高于市场一致预期，受益 于宽松的金融环境、政策不确定性降低、AI 投资以及政策宽松。新兴市 场通胀压力有望缓解，油价下跌和部分地区食品价格压力减轻是主要因 素。 美国经济与政策：预计美联储将在 2026 年上半年再降息两次。2025 年通过的税收与支出法案将在 2026 年上半年对美国经济产生积极的财 政刺激效果，支撑高于市场共识的增长预期。 亚洲经济形势：对亚洲整体经济形势持乐观态度，当前活动指标显示中 位数和平均增长表现均在 5%左右。预计 2026 年开局良好，将再次优 于市场共识预期，尤其看好中国和印度在 AI 芯片出口方面的表现。 中国经济转型：中国需寻找新的增长引擎，包括开拓美国以外的新兴市 场和摆脱对房地产行业的依赖。预计中国实际出口额将保持每年 5%至 6%的增速，经常账户盈余占 GDP 比重将升至 4.2%。 Q&A 2026 年全球经济增长的总体预期如何？ 我们对 2026 年全球经济增长持乐观态度，预计增速为 2.8%，高 ...

Investment Rating - The report projects a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2026, which is above the consensus expectation of 4.5% [7]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing competitiveness and rare earth controls are expected to drive export volumes growth of 5-6% annually [7]. - The current account surplus is projected to be 4.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the consensus of 2.5% [7]. - Although the property market has not yet bottomed, its negative impact on GDP growth is expected to lessen [7]. - Government consumption growth is anticipated to increase, compensating for weak household consumption in 2026 [7]. - Investment is expected to rebound from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Economic Growth - The report anticipates a gradual reflation process in China, with PPI inflation expected to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026 and headline CPI inflation increasing from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.2 percentage points of GDP, reaching 12.2% in 2026 [33]. Policy Outlook - The report expects a 20 basis points cut in policy rates and a year-end USDCNY exchange rate of 6.85 [7]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan continues to prioritize manufacturing, technology, and security [7]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is expected to rebound in 2026 due to policy support and a low base effect [42]. - The report highlights that the high-tech sector is projected to contribute an average of 1 percentage point to real GDP growth over the next five years [59].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xiaomi Corp. with a 12-month target price of HK$53.50, indicating an upside potential of 38.0% from the current price of HK$38.76 [15][17]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is positioned as the world's 3 smartphone brand and a leading consumer AIoT/NEV platform, with a multi-year ecosystem expansion strategy under the "Human x Car x Home" framework, projecting revenue and EPS CAGRs of 24% and 28% respectively from 2024 to 2027 [13]. - The company plans to invest Rmb200 billion in R&D from 2026 to 2030, focusing on AI, assisted driving, and chipset development to enhance its competitive edge [7][14]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi aims to increase the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones by raising prices for premium models and optimizing product structure, targeting a 1 percentage point annual market share increase in China [7][8]. - The company expects revenue growth in 2026 to be supported by government consumption subsidies and overseas expansion, while maintaining gross profit margin (GPM) at or above 2025 levels by reducing low-margin categories [8] AIoT Segment - The AIoT segment is seen as a profit stabilizer, with a revenue growth of approximately 20% year-over-year and a contribution of around 30% to overseas revenue by Q3 2025 [3][10]. - Xiaomi plans to expand its Mi Home store count to over 1,000 by 2026 and increase the contribution of large home appliances to its revenue [10]. Smart EV Segment - Xiaomi targets 550,000 unit deliveries for its smart EVs in 2026, up from over 410,000 in 2025, driven by increased manufacturing capacity and new model launches [9][11]. - The company focuses on the premium auto segment, which captures a significant profit pool, and plans to export EVs to Europe starting in 2027 [11][12]. R&D Investments - AI accounts for approximately 25% of Xiaomi's R&D budget, with plans to increase investments while leveraging AI for ecosystem empowerment and internal operations [14]. - Xiaomi has made significant progress in assisted driving technology and aims to release new features in 2026, alongside a commitment to self-developing chips for its smart EVs [14]. Share Buyback - In 2025, Xiaomi repurchased 150 million shares for a total consideration of HK$6.3 billion, indicating confidence in its stock value [14].

As we noted in our report on Semicon Japan 2025 held in December, equipment demand is strong, mainly in memory and advanced logic applications, driven by robust AI demand. With some customers requesting shipments of their equipment to be expedited, this makes for a promising 2026 outlook for equipment manufacturers. In this report, we revise our earnings estimates for SPE companies in our coverage to reflect our global team's upward revision to its AI server unit forecast (and the accompanying GPU/ASIC dema ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the Japan Industrial Electronics sector, including Anritsu, Panasonic HD, Hitachi, Sumitomo Electric, Fujikura, SWCC, Mitsubishi Electric, and Daihen. Furukawa Electric and Fuji Electric are rated as "Neutral" [7]. Core Insights - The Japan Industrial Electronics sector is poised for growth driven by technological advancements in AI server power and optics, with companies like Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, and Panasonic actively developing new business models to leverage AI's importance [1][12]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of physical AI in social infrastructure will gain momentum, with conglomerates expected to progress in their business portfolio strategies by 2026 [1]. - The sector is experiencing a shift towards higher voltage systems in data centers, which presents opportunities for electrical equipment manufacturers skilled in high voltage applications [22][24]. Earnings Estimates and Target Prices - The report revises FY3/26E-FY3/28E operating profit estimates for the sector by an average of 0%/-1%/-1%, while raising 12-month target prices by an average of 4% [3][7]. - Specific target price adjustments include Anritsu from 2,400 million JPY to 2,600 million JPY, Panasonic HD from 2,100 million JPY to 2,300 million JPY, and Hitachi from 5,900 million JPY to 6,000 million JPY [7][3]. Technological Changes in AI Server Power - Companies like Hitachi and Mitsubishi Electric are increasing their presence in AI server power solutions, focusing on high-voltage DC systems to reduce conversion losses and improve efficiency [12][13]. - The report highlights the importance of battery backup units (BBUs) and hybrid supercapacitors (HSCs) in managing power fluctuations in generative AI data centers, with Panasonic having a strong position in BBUs [16][12]. Technological Changes in AI Server Optics - The report notes a significant shift towards higher communication speeds in data centers, moving from 200-400 Gbps to 800-1.6 Tbps, and the transition to Co-packaged Optics (CPO) [28][29]. - Companies such as Mitsubishi Electric, Sumitomo Electric, and Furukawa Electric are increasing production of optical devices and connectors to meet rising demand [30][31]. Implementation of Physical AI - Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, and Panasonic are focusing on integrating AI into industrial applications, with expectations of increased competition as software companies also enter the physical AI space [47][49]. - The report categorizes companies in the sector based on their involvement in AI infrastructure, AI-enabled revenues, and productivity gains, with Hitachi identified as a key beneficiary across all categories [48][49].