Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) with a revised target price of Rmb31.11, reflecting an upside potential of 17.9% from the current price of Rmb26.38 [16][17]. Core Insights - FII's 2Q25 net income guidance is between Rmb6.7 billion and Rmb6.9 billion, with a midpoint of Rmb6.8 billion, representing a 31% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 50% year-over-year increase [1]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in cloud computing revenues, projected to exceed 50% year-over-year, and AI server revenues are expected to grow over 60% year-over-year [1]. - FII's revenues from cloud service providers (CSPs) increased by over 150% year-over-year in 2Q25, and revenues from 800G switches are projected to be three times higher than in 2024 [1]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% for net income from 2025 to 2027, with AI server revenues expected to rise from 29% in 2024 to 68% by 2027 [1]. Financial Projections - The report revises net income estimates upward by 3%, 4%, and 6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, due to higher revenue expectations [5]. - FII's revenue projections for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are Rmb850.1 billion, Rmb1,130.6 billion, and Rmb1,274.5 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 5%, 10%, and 9% from previous estimates [8]. - The gross profit (GP) for 2025E is revised to Rmb49.9 billion, with operating profit (OP) at Rmb31.4 billion and net income at Rmb27.6 billion [8]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - FII is positioned as a leading supplier in the AI server market, particularly in rack-level AI servers, supported by a comprehensive supply chain and global production capabilities [5][9]. - The target price is based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 16x for 2026E, reflecting a market re-rating on AI servers [10][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for HG Tech is "Buy" with an updated 12-month target price of Rmb56, revised from Rmb53, based on a 22x 2026E P/E [1][2][14]. Core Insights - HG Tech pre-announced its 2Q net profit range of Rmb480 million to Rmb540 million, with a mid-point of Rmb510 million, representing a 52% year-over-year increase and exceeding expectations [1]. - The strong profit performance is expected to alleviate investor concerns regarding the profitability of optical transceivers, with key catalysts anticipated in the second half of 2025, including progress in penetrating US markets and domestic demand outlook [1][14]. - The company is positioned for robust long-term growth driven by the AI infrastructure cycle, overseas expansion, and new market penetration [1]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025-2026 have been revised upward by 3% to 4.6%, leading to a net profit estimate increase of 4% to 8% [2]. - New revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb15,815 million, Rmb19,233 million, and Rmb22,971 million respectively, reflecting a 4.6% increase for 2025 and 2026, and a 3.0% increase for 2027 compared to previous estimates [6]. - Net income estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb1,830 million, Rmb2,579 million, and Rmb3,130 million respectively, with increases of 8%, 6%, and 4% compared to prior estimates [6]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - HG Tech's business segments include optical transceivers, sensors, telecom equipment, and laser tools, with a focus on high-end optical transceivers (800G and 400G modules) expected to drive margin improvement and net profit growth [14]. - The revenue mix for 2024 is projected to be 34% from laser tools, 3% from networking, and 63% from sensors, with shifts expected in 2025 and 2026 [13][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing attach ratio of optical transceivers, supporting better growth sustainability [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including Accenture, IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, and EPAM, while Cognizant and Globant are rated as "Neutral" [28][19][12]. Core Insights - The global IT services industry is facing macroeconomic headwinds that are likely to persist, delaying a broader recovery in discretionary spending until 2026 [1]. - In India, the IT services sector is expected to experience low-single digit revenue growth for FY26, with limited visibility on discretionary demand [2]. - Japan's IT services market remains strong, driven by modernization needs and a tight supply of system engineers, allowing for price increases [3]. - In the US, ongoing uncertainty in IT budgets is causing clients to delay discretionary spending, particularly in sectors like Healthcare and Manufacturing [4]. Summary by Region India - After two rounds of cuts, revenue growth estimates for FY26 have been modestly raised, but growth is expected to remain below FY25 levels [2]. - The sector is projected to see a -0.4% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for 1QFY26, with a YoY growth of +0.9% [9]. - Companies like Infosys and HCL are expected to raise their revenue growth guidance slightly [9]. Japan - The demand for IT services in Japan is robust, driven by the need to replace legacy systems and improve productivity [3][12]. - Major players like Fujitsu and NEC are well-positioned to benefit from this demand, with forecasts indicating significant profit growth [13][14]. - The financial and public sectors are consistently investing in digital transformation, which is expected to continue [16]. United States - US IT services providers are experiencing muted performance due to uncertainty in IT budgets, with some sectors showing resilience [4][17]. - Companies are reporting stable demand in Financial Services, but there are headwinds in Healthcare and Manufacturing [19]. - Management teams are indicating some signs of demand stabilization, particularly in select verticals [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics with a 12-month price target of HK$13.33, indicating an upside potential of 106.0% from the current price of HK$6.47 [11]. Core Insights - The management is optimistic about the growth of autonomous driving (AD) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in China, particularly with local car OEMs pushing for urban Navigate on Autopilot features in the mainstream price segment of Rmb150,000 (approximately US$21,000) [2][3]. - Horizon Robotics is focusing on product mix upgrades from ADAS to AD, which is expected to drive an increase in average selling price (ASP) due to enhanced computing power [3]. - The company is committed to increasing its R&D investments, particularly in developing integrated software-hardware solutions, which will allow it to charge software fees based on car shipments rather than project-based fees [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Outlook - The total addressable market (TAM) for AD and ADAS is growing, with management highlighting the competitive landscape among local car OEMs as a key driver for increased demand [2]. - The Journey 6 product is identified as a significant driver for shipment increases in the AD solutions segment [2]. 2. Product Development - The transition from ADAS products (e.g., Journey 2 and 3) to more advanced AD products (e.g., Journey 6) is expected to enhance ASP due to the substantial increase in computing power from 4-5 TOPS to 560 TOPS [3]. - Future plans include the development of a higher computing power J7 platform, estimated at around 2000 TOPS, to meet the growing demand for advanced features [3]. 3. R&D Commitment - Horizon Robotics is allocating more resources to R&D, particularly in cloud computing, to develop stronger algorithms and enhance its software-hardware integration [7]. - The company aims to penetrate the majority of car OEMs in China that lack in-house algorithms for advanced ADAS/AD features [7]. 4. Strategic Partnerships - The joint venture with Volkswagen, Carizon, is expected to yield its first car model by the end of 2025, with management anticipating a significant share of Volkswagen's car models in the China market [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chinasoft International is Neutral, with a target price of HK$5.50, reflecting a potential upside of 11.8% from the current price of HK$4.92 [10][13]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about growth driven by the HarmonyOS ecosystem and generative AI opportunities, while traditional IT services remain modest [1][8]. - Management emphasizes the transition from traditional IT services to intelligent cloud services, which is expected to enhance profitability through higher gross margins and efficiency improvements [7][8]. Summary by Sections HarmonyOS Ecosystem - Chinasoft International is collaborating closely with Huawei on HarmonyOS initiatives, focusing on application migration and developing Harmony-version virtual machines. Increased adoption of Harmony PCs is anticipated to create more business opportunities [2][3]. Generative AI Opportunities - As a full-stack AI service solutions provider, the company is capitalizing on the growing demand for generative AI in China. Their services span AI infrastructure, foundation models, and application software development. The establishment of AI computing centers with local governments is also highlighted [3][7]. 2025 Outlook - Management expects traditional IT services to see better growth from sectors such as financial institutions, internet companies, automotive, and state-owned enterprises. The company anticipates a higher profit level due to the expansion of intelligent cloud services and AI deployment [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pony AI Inc. with a 12-month price target of $26.00, indicating an upside potential of 109% from the current price of $12.44 [12]. Core Insights - Pony AI is positioned as a leader in Level 4 autonomous mobility, focusing on robotaxi and robotruck services in China, particularly in tier-1 cities [8][6]. - The company anticipates significant growth in Robotaxi operation revenues, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 188% from 2025 to 2027, with revenue contribution expected to reach 52% by 2027 [1][2]. - Management is optimistic about the turnaround in unit economics and profitability per car, primarily due to the introduction of generation 7 vehicles, which have hardware costs approximately 70-80% lower than previous generations [7][2]. Summary by Sections Robotaxi Market in China - China is the largest ride-hailing market, accounting for 40% of global transaction value, with tier-1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) representing 40% of this market [2]. - The management emphasizes the importance of expanding the Robotaxi fleet size in these cities to enhance operational efficiency and reduce passenger wait times, thereby increasing daily orders per car [2][6]. Robotaxi Operations in Non-China Markets - Pony AI is also exploring opportunities in non-China markets, including South Korea, Singapore, the Middle East, and Luxembourg, while advocating for regulatory support to facilitate Robotaxi operations [6][3]. Unit Economics and Profitability - The management is confident that unit economics will improve due to the cost efficiency of generation 7 vehicles, which utilize automotive-grade sensors and computing platforms, optimizing both performance and cost [7][1]. - The company aims to achieve positive gross margins for Robotaxi operations by 2026, with expectations of reaching 12% and increasing to 29% by 2027 as the fleet size grows and operational efficiencies improve [1][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Pony AI indicate growth from $75 million in 2024 to $150.4 million by 2027, while EBITDA is expected to improve from negative figures to a more manageable level over the same period [12][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump administration's recent tariff increases are expected to significantly impact consumer prices, similar to the effects observed during the 2018-2019 trade war [2][5] - Preliminary data indicates that the effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 7.2 percentage points (pp) as of May, with expectations of a total increase to about 14pp with additional sectoral tariffs [14][29] - The analysis suggests that foreign exporters have absorbed about 20% of the tariff costs, while the remaining costs are split between US businesses and consumers [29][34] Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation and Effects - Tariff hikes began in early February, with significant increases taking effect in April, leading to delayed impacts on consumer prices due to shipping and payment delays [2][8][10] - The effective tariff rate is estimated to have risen by 9pp, with customs revenue indicating a lower increase of 7.2pp due to various delays [14][18] Cost Absorption and Price Changes - Price data through May shows that a 1pp increase in product-level tariff rates has led to a 0.2% decline in import prices, primarily driven by China [21][27] - The share of tariff costs passed onto consumers increased from 0% in the first month to 10% after two months, and to 40% after three months [3][46] Core PCE Inflation Forecast - Tariffs have raised core PCE prices by approximately 6 basis points (bp) this year, suggesting that without tariffs, the current core PCE inflation rate of 2.7% would be 2.6% [52] - The report maintains an unchanged inflation forecast, expecting tariff effects to boost core PCE inflation by about 1pp this year, leading to a year-over-year rate of around 3.3% in December [53][58]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$450, indicating an upside potential of 10.2% from the current price of HK$408.20 [3][2]. Core Insights - The report revises the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Hong Kong Exchanges for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E down by -1.8%, -1.5%, and -1.2% respectively, based on updated volume data for June 2025 and July 2025 [1][2]. - The investment income estimates have also been updated to reflect the latest HIBOR forecasts, but the overall investment thesis remains unchanged [1]. - The target price is derived from a 3-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), implying a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37X for 2026E [2][3]. Financial Projections - Market capitalization is reported at HK$517.5 billion (approximately $65.9 billion) [3]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024E at HK$22,374 million, 2025E at HK$25,351.9 million, 2026E at HK$26,573 million, and 2027E at HK$28,025.7 million [3]. - EPS estimates are revised to HK$10.32 for 2025E, HK$11.49 for 2026E, and HK$12.04 for 2027E [3]. - The report indicates a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$9.26 for 2025E, with a projected dividend yield of 3.5% [3]. Risks and Methodology - The report identifies potential downside risks including increased competition from onshore capital markets, lower trading velocity in the cash market, fee pressure from reduced fees in China, and a sustained deflationary environment in China [2]. - The methodology for the target price is based on a 3-stage DDM approach, which is a standard valuation method used in the industry [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lingyi, with a 12-month price target of Rmb11.40, indicating an upside potential of 28.1% from the current price of Rmb8.90 [18][13]. Core Insights - Lingyi's revenues are expected to grow by 23% year-over-year in 2Q25, reaching Rmb11.5 billion, driven by new project contributions and improved seasonality in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - The gross margin (GM) is projected to improve to 15.7% in 2Q25, up from 15.2% in 1Q25, although still below the 2022/2023 levels of 20.7% and 19.9% respectively [1][3]. - Lingyi's diversification into foldable phones, servers, and AI/AR glasses components is expected to increase revenue contributions to 14% and 18% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025 remain unchanged at Rmb54.5 billion, with net income expected to grow by 43% year-over-year [3][9]. - Earnings revisions indicate a decrease in net income estimates by 11% for 2025, primarily due to lower GM from the automotive and server segments [3][7]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% in revenues from 2025 to 2027 [3][9]. Financial Metrics - The report projects gross margins to expand from 15.8% in 2024 to 16.6% and 18.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3][11]. - Operating profit margins (OPM) are expected to improve from 6.0% in 2025 to 8.1% in 2027 [3][11]. - The net margin is forecasted to increase to 4.6% and 5.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3][11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Lingyi is expanding its business in foldable phones, servers, robotics, and AI/AR glasses components to reduce concentration risk and capture a larger market share [2][3]. - The company has established partnerships to provide comprehensive manufacturing solutions, which are expected to lower the bill of materials (BOM) costs for clients [2][3]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb11.4 is based on a target P/E multiple of 21.2x 2026E EPS, reflecting a positive correlation between P/E and EPS growth among peers [11][17]. - Lingyi is currently trading at a P/E of 17x for 2026E, which is considered attractive [13][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the eCommerce industry, highlighting several "Buy" rated stocks as secular winners, including Amazon.com (AMZN), JD.com (JD), Coupang (CPNG), Sea Ltd. (SE), MercadoLibre (MELI), Zalando (ZAL), and Eternal (ETEA) [7]. Core Insights - Global eCommerce sales are projected to grow at a +6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately $6.4 trillion by 2030, driven by modest increases in online penetration rates and significant growth in regions with lower current penetration [5][16]. - The report identifies the Food and Beverage category as a key driver of eCommerce growth, with expectations of a +10% CAGR in this segment from 2025 to 2030 [33]. - The eCommerce market is expected to continue consolidating, with the largest platforms gaining market share, particularly in the global ex-China market where the top five platforms accounted for 50% of total online sales in 2024 [38]. Summary by Sections Global eCommerce Opportunity - The report estimates global eCommerce sales at $4.3 trillion in 2024, growing to $4.7 trillion in 2025, with a long-term growth forecast of +6% CAGR through 2030 [16]. - Global eCommerce penetration is expected to rise from 23% in 2025 to 26% by 2030, indicating a gradual shift towards online shopping [16]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in global real GDP growth in 2025, particularly in the US and Asia, which may impact eCommerce sales [10]. - Tariffs and the evolving global trade environment are highlighted as significant risk factors for the industry [10]. Valuation Insights - Current global eCommerce valuation multiples are below long-term averages, reflecting a slower growth profile, although growth-adjusted multiples remain at historical norms [10]. - The report includes a refreshed DCF-based intrinsic value framework for GMV-based platforms [10]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that regions with lower online penetration, such as India, Latin America, and ASEAN, present the highest growth potential for eCommerce [10][16]. - In the US, eCommerce sales are projected to grow to nearly $1.7 trillion by 2030, with an average annual increase in online penetration of 70 basis points [50]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the largest eCommerce platforms are capturing a majority of incremental sales, driven by competitive advantages such as low prices and fast delivery [100]. - Essential product categories are outperforming discretionary categories, with platforms focused on staples seeing stronger growth [100].