摘要 欧洲天然气价格预计在 2026 年降至 29 欧元，2027 年进一步降至 20 欧元。美国方面，预计到 2027 年底出口需求将增加 4.5 bcf/d，亨利港 2026 年价格预测为 4.60 美元，2027 年为 3.80 美元。新增 LNG 产能 将超过俄罗斯天然气供应缺口的两倍，主要来自美国和卡塔尔。 市场关注存储能力、电力建设和供需紧缩情况。过去 20 年存储设施建 设滞后导致短期存储能力成为主要问题。市场正在观望电力建设是否有 足够弹性支持基础设施建设。与六个月前相比，供需紧缩情况有所缓解， 但冬季天气仍是关键因素。 2025 年初欧洲天然气价格看涨，但因天气和欧盟放松储存规则而受阻。 CTA 交易者普遍持有空头头寸。第一季度供需可能偏紧，但长期看跌。 可再生能源发展，尤其是在中国，值得关注。冬季寒冷或地缘政治变化 可能产生重大影响。 全球政治格局变化和化石燃料消费量回升将推动亚洲地区的需求增长。 中国努力依靠自身煤炭和可再生能源发电，并计划在 2030 年前实现脱 碳，政策微调可能使天然气受益，对 LNG 市场产生影响。 Q&A 天然气的近期前景如何？当前市场关注的主要因素有哪些？ 未来 ...

高盛闭门会-用宏观比较分析 ai 泡沫，和 90 年代的差异说 明泡沫尚未破裂 20251119 摘要 当前人工智能投资虽增长迅猛，但规模和持续性尚处早期阶段，与 1990 年代末电信泡沫时期相比，利润率维持高位，杠杆指标总体健康， 宏观失衡风险较低，为投资热潮持续发展提供空间。 分析师预测人工智能带来的生产率提升，其潜在价值在 5 万亿至 19 万 亿美元之间，但自 2022 年 11 月以来，与 ChatGPT 相关的 AI 公司市 值已增加超过 19 万亿美元，表明市场已提前消化了大部分 AI 繁荣的价 值。 尽管估值偏高，但宏观经济和资本支出环境依然支持 AI 投资趋势，周期 性角度前景良好，预计在劳动力市场稳定的前提下，美联储可能采取宽 松政策，重要失衡尚未显现，为周期持续提供动力。 大量融资活动转向私人资本和信贷领域，增加了风险监控难度。应加强 对非公开融资活动的数据收集与分析，关注宏观统计数据，如总体盈利 能力、杠杆和信贷指标，以全面洞察经济和企业部门的杠杆水平。 Q&A 当前的人工智能热潮与 1990 年代的市场泡沫有何异同？ 当前的人工智能热潮与 1990 年代的市场泡沫存在一些显著差异。首 ...

高盛闭门会-首席策略师用长期视角看 ai 和美股，泡沫早期 但还没破多元化的必要性 20251119 摘要 科技行业利润增长长期超越其他行业，这一趋势自金融危机后已持续 15 年，但当前科技股虽表现出色，整体行业估值仍未达历史泡沫水平。 美国股市估值偏高，未来十年预期回报较低；欧洲股市估值相对较低， 且存在结构性改革机会，增长潜力较大，多元化发展及资本支出增加也 将促进发展。 全球股票未来 10 年总回报预期为年化 7.7%（美元计），低于过去 10- 15 年水平。美国预期年化本地回报为 6.5%，欧洲约为 7%，亚洲约为 10%，新兴市场约为 11%。 对亚洲和中国 GDP 预测进行了上调，表明对该地区持乐观态度。中国加 大对出口驱动型模式的投入，并大幅增加产能，或将加剧欧洲制造业领 域的竞争。 欧洲市场过去十年呈现资金净流出趋势，但 2025 年初出现变化，美元 下跌、德国放松财政约束提振信心，外国投资者大量流入，本地资金回 流。 Q&A 在您最近发布的公司显微镜报告中，哪些图表对欧洲投资者关系人员来说最重 要和相关？ 在我们每季度发布的宏观范围报告中，有几个图表对欧洲投资者关系人员尤为 重要。首先，图 ...

高盛闭门会-脉动中国-详解 10 月经济数据，五大投资主题 20251119 摘要 中国固定资产投资（FAI）数据下滑，部分原因是统计局主动挤出水分， 并不完全反映经济活动的减弱。水泥需求与官方数据对比显示过去存在 高报现象，需关注数据质量而非单纯增速。 10 月工业增加值低于预期，受季节性因素和出口相关电子产品拖累影响。 社会零售额增速小幅下降，双十一促销提前及去年高基数效应是主要原 因，预计 11 月增速可能持续疲软。 房地产市场面临挑战，新开工和竣工项目大幅收缩，二手房价格加速下 行。未来需适度宽松政策，如降低存量房贷利率、加快城中村改造等， 以缓解市场压力。 货币政策方面，央行更注重中长期调节而非短期刺激，关注银行净息差 问题。短期内大规模增量政策可能性较低，或在明年初进行政策宽松， 需关注 12 月中央经济工作会议。 央行管理利率差距，保持政策利率与市场利率稳定。人民币呈现缓步升 值趋势，央行推动人民币国际化和资本市场开放，外汇管理和汇率稳定 至关重要。 Q&A 近期中国的固定资产投资（FAI）数据表现如何？其背后的原因是什么？ 近期中国的固定资产投资（FAI）数据表现不佳，连续三四个月低于市场预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese equity market, particularly aligned with the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) [3][40]. Core Insights - The 15th FYP emphasizes high-quality, secure, and balanced growth, with a focus on technology, innovation, and improving people's livelihoods as key priorities for 2026-2030 [1][12]. - Historical analysis shows that aligning investment strategies with the FYP can yield significant alpha, with a potential 13% annualized alpha if portfolios are aligned with policy trends [2][18]. - The report identifies a universe of 35 GICS3 Industries that are expected to benefit from policy support, representing a total market cap of US$13 trillion, which is 66% of the full universe [3][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Performance and Policy Alignment - MSCI China and CSI300 have delivered 8-10% total return CAGR since the 10th FYP, trailing nominal GDP growth of 11% [2][18]. - The report highlights that specific sectors mentioned in the 14th FYP significantly outperformed the benchmark, with average returns of 41% compared to -3% for the CSI300 [24][25]. 2. 15th FYP Portfolio Construction - The report screens for 50 mid-cap stocks across 21 sub-sectors, which have returned 68% in the past year, outperforming MSCI China by 33 percentage points [4][54]. - These stocks are expected to deliver a 30% EPS CAGR over the next two years, compared to 15% for MSCI China, indicating strong growth potential [4][54]. 3. Key Themes and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment themes, including the return of private-owned enterprises (POEs), Going Global, AI, Anti-Involution, and Shareholder Returns, which are expected to outperform in a slower market [3][40]. - Emerging technologies such as 6G, bio-manufacturing, and hydrogen/nuclear fusion are highlighted as new areas of focus in the 15th FYP [12][15]. 4. Sectoral Analysis - The selected industries predominantly reside in Technology, Consumer, and Materials sectors, with a strong emphasis on tech-related industries expected to receive policy support [40][41]. - The report notes that the 15th FYP universe is expected to grow faster than the broader market, with higher profitability and growth capex intensity [40][39].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the energy sector, with potential opportunities arising from expected oil price declines in 2026 [3][13]. Core Insights - Global energy demand is accelerating, particularly in the electricity sector, driven by artificial intelligence and data centers, with trends spreading to Europe and Asia [1][2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand may continue to grow for the next 20 years, while natural gas is becoming a key transitional fuel [2]. - Data centers are projected to increase global electricity demand by 1%-3% annually, half of which is driven by artificial intelligence [1][9]. - Fuel cell technology is gaining renewed attention due to its low pollution and high efficiency, particularly for off-grid power solutions for data centers [1][5]. - Serious Power, a company specializing in solid oxide fuel cell technology, is positioned for significant growth through licensing agreements with major manufacturers [1][6]. Summary by Sections Energy Demand and Trends - The 6th Annual Carbon Economy Conference highlighted the rapid growth in global energy demand, especially in electricity, influenced by AI and data centers [2]. - The revival of nuclear energy and the renewable energy revolution are driving new energy storage solutions [2]. Fuel Cell Technology - Fuel cell technology is being reconsidered due to its suitability for urban applications and the long delivery times of gas turbines [5]. - Serious Power's licensing model allows it to avoid manufacturing constraints and focus on growth through partnerships [6][7]. Market Dynamics - Major oil companies face the dual challenge of revitalizing core oil and gas exploration while seizing opportunities in data centers and electronic businesses [11]. - The Inflation Reduction Act continues to support renewable energy development, particularly in Texas, while maintaining incentives for solar, wind, and energy storage [12]. Future Outlook - The energy market is expected to experience significant volatility by 2026, with structural growth opportunities in U.S. natural gas, the grid, and fuel cells [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector remains positive, suggesting further investment opportunities despite significant growth already observed [1]. Core Insights - The global economic team estimates the potential capital gains value of AI to be as high as $8 trillion, indicating that further investment is justified [3]. - The current AI investment cycle is believed to be in its early stages, with the market value of AI-related companies having surpassed the $8 trillion estimate since the end of 2022 [3]. - There are no significant signs of a macro bubble similar to the 1990s tech bubble, as the increase in AI-driven investment spending has been modest and short-lived [6]. - The financial health of corporate sectors is stable, with a steady U.S. current account deficit and narrow credit spreads, suggesting a lack of immediate risk for market adjustments [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to remain stable in the coming months, with no recession anticipated, and the Federal Reserve likely to adopt more accommodative policies [9]. - By early 2026, the growth outlook is expected to be more optimistic, which should positively impact stock market performance [9]. Labor Market and Policy Considerations - The labor market will be a key macro issue to monitor in 2026, as its stability could reduce expectations of downside risks [10]. - The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair and the composition of the 2026 FOMC will also be critical in determining policy direction and uncertainty [10]. Investment Strategies - Protective positions or strategies that capture upside exposure while limiting downside risk are recommended to navigate potential market volatility [7]. - If economic prosperity continues and debt usage increases, there may be an expansion in credit spreads, providing exposure to credit issuance stories and downside risks in the real economy [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the energy sector, particularly focusing on renewable energy and gas power plants, while highlighting the vulnerabilities in Europe's energy supply chain [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is accelerating, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 2.6% in the U.S. by the end of this decade, driven by air conditioning, data centers, industry, and electric vehicles [1][2]. - Europe relies heavily on imports for its energy needs, with nearly 50% of its energy structure dependent on imports, particularly LNG from the U.S. and Qatar, and rare earth resources from China [1][4]. - The nuclear energy sector, while significant in the EU's energy mix at about 10%, faces supply chain risks due to the concentration of uranium supply and processing [5]. - The aging electricity grid in Europe poses a major bottleneck for meeting new electricity demands, necessitating modernization and increased green investments [6][8]. - The development of AI data centers is significantly driving energy demand, with challenges in grid expansion and a growing interest in storage solutions like fuel cells [9][10]. Summary by Sections Energy Demand and Supply - Global electricity demand grew by 4.3% last year, outpacing GDP growth, with data centers' electricity demand rising to about 2% in the EU and 6% in the U.S. [2]. - The importance of electricity supply security has increased due to the high energy consumption of AI technologies and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [3][14]. Renewable Energy and Investment Opportunities - RWE, a German utility company, is highlighted for its strong earnings potential, with 70% of its business in renewable energy and a projected annual earnings growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2030 [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the need for significant capital investment in electrification, estimating a requirement of nearly $3 trillion to modernize infrastructure and support renewable energy [8]. Challenges in Energy Supply - Europe's dependency on LNG imports could rise to 70-80% if Russian LNG is banned, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy security [4]. - The concentration of rare earth resources in China poses additional risks, with Europe seeking to reduce this dependency through legislative measures [4]. Nuclear Energy and Supply Chain Risks - The nuclear fuel cycle's high concentration in supply sources raises concerns about potential disruptions, particularly with significant reliance on imports from Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia [5]. Infrastructure and Modernization Needs - The aging electrical grid requires modernization to accommodate new demands from electric vehicles and data centers, with a projected need for a 70% increase in green investments over the next five years [6][8]. Emerging Technologies and Companies - Companies like Prysmian are positioned to benefit from the growth in data centers, providing essential low-voltage cables for the sector [18]. - Sirius XM is noted for its solid oxide fuel cell technology, which has potential in the green hydrogen market, highlighting investment opportunities in emerging technologies [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong profit growth for S&P 500 companies, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in Q3 2025, despite macroeconomic concerns [7][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown negatively impacted Q4 economic growth by approximately 1.1 to 1.2 percentage points, but a rebound to 3.1% growth is expected in Q1 due to government spending [1][2]. - The Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the President's authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA may lead to partial overturning of tariffs, although significant presidential power remains [1][4]. - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, although uncertainty remains [1][5]. - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with projections for large-scale data centers raised from $470 billion to $530 billion [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The government shutdown has caused a drag on economic growth, but a rebound is expected due to increased government spending [1][2]. - The labor market's performance will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][10]. Tariff and Legal Considerations - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs could reshape the landscape of U.S. trade policy, with implications for specific countries [4][1]. Corporate Performance - S&P 500 companies showed strong profit growth, with a notable increase in guidance for Q4, indicating positive market expectations [7][8]. - AI companies are financially robust, with strong cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them well for future growth despite market volatility [9][18]. Currency and Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to gradually depreciate as economic performance weakens, influenced by labor market data and potential interest rate cuts [10][12]. - Emerging market currencies may perform better if the U.S. economy underperforms, with the potential for a stable yuan to support the Asian region [12][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for the stock market, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could positively influence market performance [3][7][10]. Core Insights - The labor market shows signs of improvement, but the starting point remains low, with concerns about layoffs potentially exacerbated by AI [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a projected terminal rate of 3%-3.25% by mid-2026 [1][4][11]. - The stock market is currently at a crossroads, influenced by tariff cancellations and fiscal support, but faces risks from unstable data [6][10]. Summary by Sections Labor Market Analysis - Employment growth is improving, but the labor market tightness indicators are declining, raising concerns about potential layoffs [1][2]. - Alternative labor market data suggests worsening conditions, indicating that official employment data may not show significant improvement in the short term [4][13]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's friendly stance is expected to lead to interest rate cuts, with strong data potentially accelerating market recovery [3][7]. - If the labor market weakens, rate cuts may be implemented sooner than anticipated [4][11]. Market Outlook - The stock market is experiencing volatility, but there is optimism for a rebound towards the end of the year, driven by strong corporate earnings and seasonal factors [7][10]. - Despite recent market corrections, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for continued capital expenditure in 2026 [10][12]. Political Environment - The Democratic Party is negotiating on key issues like SNAP benefits and ACA, which could impact market dynamics [5]. - The potential for government shutdowns has diminished, but future funding debates will be critical to monitor [5][6].