高盛闭门会-美股互联网财报季要点，ai 担忧云计算再加速， 首选 metaai 颠覆错杀游戏股 20260212 2026-02-12 摘要 数字广告和云计算领域表现强劲，缓解了投资者对 AI 资本开支回报的担 忧，Meta 略有盈余，Alphabet 保持可观盈余，但亚马逊预计在 2026- 2027 年将出现亏损，促使投资者考虑更长期的自由现金流估值。 亚马逊虽开局强劲，但营业利润指引和资本支出强度令投资者措手不及， AWS 增速低于谷歌云，积压订单增速也远低于谷歌云，导致投资者重新 评估对 Alphabet 的投资。 广告行业正朝着人工智能和机器学习驱动的方向发展，少数头部企业如 亚马逊、Meta 和 Alphabet 从中受益，Meta 在 AI 领域的新增长支柱 及其核心广告业务的 AI 应用杠杆效应，使其成为风险收益比最具吸引力 的标的。 预计科技企业资本密集度峰值将在 2025-2027 年出现，但投资者对这 些支出的回报情况仍存疑虑，未来六个月内，市场将更关注产能支持、 半导体行业格局和数据中心建设等因素。 Q&A 投资者对不断攀升的资本支出预期有何看法？他们需要看到什么，才会对这些 预期更有 ...

高盛发布研报称，维持中芯国际(70.05,0.05,0.07%)(00981)"买入"评级，予中芯国际H股目标价134港 元，相当于预测2028年市盈率71.6倍，予中芯国际(688981.SH)A股目标价241.6元人民币(估H股估值有溢价 196%)，对公司的长期增长持正面看法，由本土无晶圆厂客户需求增长及AI机遇所推动。 中芯去年第四季收入按季升4%至25亿美元，较该行及市场预期高3%，并高于管理层指引的0%至2%增长。期 内毛利率19%，符合管理层指引的18%至20%，亦大致符合该行及市场预期。收入增长主要因晶圆出货量及平均 售价按季升1%，而毛利率相比上季的22%有所下降，主要因折旧及摊销费用增加。 管理层指引今年首季收入将按季持平，与该行预期的2%增长及市场预期的持平大致相符。首季毛利率指引 维持18%至20%，略低于该行预期的21.7%及市场预期的20.9%。针对今年全年，中芯管理层预期收入增长将高于 可比同业的平均水平，资本支出同比持平；该行认为指引有上行空间。 中芯国际(00981):维持"买入"评级,目标价134港元 美国高盛 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese economy, with expected GDP growth targets adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5% for 2026, reflecting a conservative approach to fiscal policy and economic expectations [1][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is experiencing uneven growth, with exports and manufacturing growth exceeding 5%, while the real estate sector is significantly declining, indicating a structural economic transition towards technology innovation [1][3]. - Local government meetings have revealed a downward adjustment in growth targets for 2026, with a weighted average decrease from 5.3% to 5.1%, suggesting a cautious outlook across most provinces [5][6]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is about 4% for 2026, which is higher than the market's implied rate of 2.5%, but the negative impacts on exports and inflation are expected to be limited [1][9][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Expectations - The expected GDP growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with an inflation target maintained at around 2% [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at approximately 4% of GDP, with special government bond issuance expected to be consistent with the previous year [7]. Local Government Insights - A majority of provinces have lowered their growth targets, with 21 out of 31 provinces adjusting their goals downwards, indicating a collective preparation for a more cautious economic environment [5][6]. - Core provinces like Beijing and Shanghai have maintained their growth targets around 5%, while Guangdong has adjusted its target down to 4.5%-5% [5]. Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate by about 4% in 2026, which may lead to increased export prices and reduced import prices, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures [11][13]. - CPI is projected to decrease to 0.3% year-on-year in January 2026, while PPI is expected to be -1.4%, indicating a need to monitor manufacturing cost-driven inflation [16]. Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, despite significant sell-offs by state-owned entities, with retail investor sentiment remaining high [17]. - There has been a strong inflow of capital from southbound investments, with net purchases reaching $16 billion, indicating robust interest in Hong Kong stocks [18]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to reach a bottom within at least 12 months, with current policy support deemed insufficient to stimulate demand effectively [29].

美国高盛 高盛发布研报称，中国移动(78.45,-1.75,-2.18%)(00941)目前估值处于合理水平。目标价从105港元下调 至88港元，评级从"买入"下调至"中性"。若未来出现以下情况，对该股看法将转为更乐观，包括5G用户 ARPU改善、创新业务增长超预期，或6G电信服务商用进展快于预期。 该行对中国移动从传统电信服务向创新业务的拓展保持正面看法，然而5G电信服务增长持续放缓，根据最 新数据，2025年12月中国行业新增5G基站数量较该行预估低8,000个，该行预计2026年及2027年新增5G基站数 将分别同比下降8%及7%，达到54万个及50万个。在创新业务方面，该行预期未来将持续实现增长，主要受超大 规模算力持续扩张，以及AI生态覆盖的支持。 中国移动(00941):降评级至"中性",目标价降至88港元 ...

高盛相信，信达生物将继续保持其在中国生物技术领域的领先地位，主要得益于拥有大量针对下一代免疫 肿瘤靶点的新型分子，并已获得令人鼓舞的初步数据(如IBI363(PD-1/IL-2α偏向性双特异性抗体)，在免疫治 疗/冷肿瘤中具有差异化的药物特性；强大的商业化能力及与全球合作伙伴，特别是礼来公司的深度合作等。 信达生物(01801):与礼来(LLY.US)深化长期合作关系料被低估,予"买入"评级 高盛发布研报称，信达生物(85.25,5.75,7.23%)(01801)昨日(8日)宣布与礼来(LLY.US)美元的里程碑付 款；及基于中国以外地区净销售额的分级销售特许权使用费。高盛考虑到当前市场隐含的加权平均资本成本 (12%)较高，认为其目前股价被低估；予该股"买入"评级；基于风险调整后、现金流量折现法，予目标价 102.85港元。 美国高盛 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Meitu Inc. with a target price of HKD 16, implying a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 33.1 times for 2027 [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that generative artificial intelligence has transformed Meitu from a "beautification tool" into an "AI photo and video generation and editing application," expanding its market from consumer entertainment to enterprise productivity tools, which is expected to drive growth in monthly active users, payment ratios, and average revenue per user (ARPU) [1] - Revenue for Meitu is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% from 2025 to 2030, with enterprise/productivity revenue expected to account for 44% of total revenue by 2030, up from an anticipated 12% in 2025 [1] - The global AI video and image creative market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 44% from 2025 to 2030, reaching USD 39 billion, with Meitu's market share in AI video/image expected to rise to 2% and 17% by 2030, compared to 1% and 13% in 2025 [1]

Q&A 请分析 2025 年 11 月以来铜价和铝价上涨的驱动因素，并预测 2026 年第二 季度的价格走势。 高盛闭门会-上调 H1 铝价到 3150 但长期供应可能过剩， 铜受益于宏观和结构性短缺 20260205 摘要 预计未来有 50 个基点的降息空间，美国关税拖累效应减弱，财政扩张 显著影响市场，预计 2026 上半年美国消费者将获约 1,000 亿美元退税， 企业受益于厂房设备全额费用化政策，资本开支回暖，风险偏好维持高 位。 AI 资本开支推动铜需求转向国防、人工智能、电气化及电网建设等周期 性行业，占据 40%以上铜需求增长来源。降息预期、财政扩张及 AI 资 本开支热潮推动超 300 亿美元资金流入基本金属领域。 预测 2026 年一季度铜价为 13,000 美元/吨，二季度为 12,500 美元/吨。 美国经济稳健增长，美元走弱，支撑市场风险偏好。美国持续从全球吸 纳铜，库存增加趋势将在下半年消退，宏观环境仍具支撑性。 美国 232 条款中的铜关税政策是 2025 年上半年市场的重要因素，预计 2026 年中将重新评估精炼铜关税，或宣布 15%关税，2027 年生效。 预计美国年底累积 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil shipping industry, particularly for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) and crude oil transportation, anticipating a super cycle driven by geopolitical factors and sanctions on shadow tankers [1]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply is expected to stagnate in 2024, but will see an increase of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day from non-OPEC countries starting mid-2025, followed by OPEC countries joining the production increase [1][4]. - Geopolitical factors significantly impact the tanker market, with issues such as U.S.-China port fee disputes leading to vessel delays and increased demand asymmetry [2][5]. - China plays a crucial role in global oil reserves, with an expected addition of at least 100 million barrels of storage capacity by mid-2026, which will boost demand for mainstream raw material imports and vessels [1][6]. - High refining margins are prompting regions like the Middle East, India, Japan, and South Korea to activate idle capacities, with a projected net increase of 1 million barrels per day in refining capacity by 2026 [1][8]. - The global oil supply-demand outlook shows uncertainty, with an expected daily surplus of around 1 million barrels in 2026, potentially lasting into 2027 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Current Oil Tanker Market Drivers - Key drivers include the growth in crude oil production and exports, increased transportation distances, and geopolitical factors affecting demand [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil tanker market is characterized by a complex supply-demand situation, with supply growth expected at 3% in 2026, but actual growth at only 2% due to aging fleets [3][10]. - Demand is projected to grow by 6% in 2026, with a slight decrease in growth rate expected in 2027 [10]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical events, such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil, could shift demand from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets, positively impacting VLCC demand [11][12]. Regional Inventory Behaviors - Japan and South Korea are critical regions, with significant increases in crude oil imports, which will impact global oil demand [13]. Clean vs. Dirty Transportation Analysis - The clean and dirty transportation sectors are highly interchangeable, with expected growth rates of 5% to 5.8% for dirty transportation and 2.1% for clean transportation [14].

全球思考：⾼盛顶级交易员提出"两万亿美元的问 题" BY TYLER DURDEN SUNDAY,FEB 08,2026-07:05 AM 上周五⻩⾦/⽩银的回调是本周戏剧性主题和因⼦波动的前兆，这让⼈想起10⽉加密货币清算的后 果，那次清算导致了10⽉中旬⾄11⽉的⼤规模回调。 ⾼盛顶级交易员路易斯·⽶勒指出，与当时类似，势头有所摇摆，但并未中断。 鉴于动量⻓仓的盈利预期上调，在关注波动性的同时，应逢⼤幅回调买⼊。 2026/2/9 14:56 Global Reflections: Top Goldman Trader Asks The 'Two Trillion Dollar Question' | ZeroHedge ⻛险价值冲击确实留下了印记。 ⽬前，许多主题的10天实际波动率处于2010年以来的第99百分位，其中包括： ⾼⻉塔动量 （ GSPRHIMO 指数）、 AI 赢家与⻛险（ GSPUARTI 指数）、质量（ GSPUQUAL 指数） ，还有许多其 他主题也紧随其后： 软件与半导体（ GSPUSOSE 指数，第 97 百分位）、周期性股与防御性股 （ GSPUCYDE 指数，第 94 百分位 ...

2026/2/9 15:09 "What A Week!" - Goldman's Top Tech Trader Says 'Dispersion Remains The Name Of The Game' | ZeroHedge "多么精彩的⼀周！"——⾼盛顶级科技交易员称"分 化仍是游戏的核⼼" BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY,FEB 09,2026-08:15 AM "多么糟糕的⼀周啊……"这是⾼盛顶级科技交易员彼得·卡拉汉今天在给客⼾的报告中开头所说的 话。此前，市场经历了近期历史上最为动荡的⼏天——即便从指数层⾯来看，最终结果只是"平平 ⽆奇"…… 可以这么说，上周就是这样的⼀周：周五的收盘铃声（波动率指数为17点左右，标普500指数全周 仅下跌0.1%）很难展现出⼜⼀个忙碌交易周的全貌，⽽我们也结束了今年紧张的前25个交易⽇。 （即：今年表现波动且交易量上升） https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-week-goldmans-top-tech-trader-says-dispersion-remains-name-game 1/8 周⼆、周三 ...