7月进出口数据点评：外需进入观察期？

Trade Data Overview - In July 2024, China's exports reached $300.56 billion, while imports totaled $215.91 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $84.65 billion[1] - Year-on-year export growth was 7.0%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while import growth was 7.2%, rebounding by 9.5 percentage points[1] Export Performance - Exports to the US and EU improved, with year-on-year growth of 8.1% and 8.0%, respectively, increasing by 1.5 and 3.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports to ASEAN countries declined, with a growth rate of 12.2%, down 2.9 percentage points[2] - The export growth to emerging markets such as Latin America, Russia, and Africa showed a decline, with rates of 13.8%, -2.8%, and -7.9%, respectively[2] Import Dynamics - July saw a significant recovery in semiconductor imports, contributing to a 7.2% year-on-year growth, up 9.5 percentage points from June[3] - Key resource imports like copper, iron ore, crude oil, and natural gas increased by 26.9%, 10.8%, 7.9%, and 5.8%, respectively[3] - The overall import growth for July was driven by electronic goods and resource products, contributing 2.6 and 3.8 percentage points to the total import growth[3] Market Outlook - The decline in export growth raises questions about whether it is a trend reversal or a temporary fluctuation, with July's export level still considered strong at 7.0%[4] - Comparatively, exports from Vietnam and South Korea showed improvement, suggesting that a significant downturn in China's exports may not be imminent[4] - External factors such as the US economic situation and upcoming elections are expected to have limited negative impact on trade dynamics[4] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic recovery, misinterpretation of policies, and delays in data updates[6]