光伏行业8月策略：出海中东，新兴市场再掀浪潮

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the photovoltaic industry, with specific companies like Yangguang Power, Deye, and Jinko Solar recommended for investment [1][2]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a recovery driven by strong global demand, particularly in emerging markets, and is expected to return to a balanced supply-demand state after a period of adjustment [2][26]. - The inverter segment is showing significant performance improvement, with a notable increase in export values, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][9]. - New technologies in battery production are emerging, with companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei making substantial advancements in efficiency and production capacity [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Data of the Photovoltaic Industry - In the first half of 2024, the cumulative newly installed capacity reached 102.5 GW, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. In June 2024, the monthly newly installed capacity was 23.3 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 35.6% and a month-on-month growth of 22.5% [8][29]. - The export scale of photovoltaic components in June 2024 was 23.7 GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 42.4% and a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [8][35]. - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is at a low valuation point, with a PE ratio of 17.73 and a PB ratio of 1.85 as of July 31, 2024, suggesting potential for future growth [14][15]. 2. Market Review - The photovoltaic index increased by 3.3% from July 1 to July 31, 2024, outperforming the broader market, primarily due to the rising exports of inverters [9][11]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in inventory levels and a shift towards more competitive advanced capacities as the industry undergoes a supply-side reform [2][32]. 3. Global Demand - The global photovoltaic demand is expected to grow robustly, with projections of 526 GW of new installations in 2024, corresponding to nearly 700 GW of component shipments [26][29]. - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, are anticipated to see a doubling of demand, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [35][34]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply-demand balance is gradually improving, with a focus on eliminating outdated production capacities as new regulations are introduced [32][34]. - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is undergoing a transformation with new standards aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency, which is expected to drive the sector towards sustainable growth [32][34].