宝武镁业：镁价下滑导致Q2业绩承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [5][10]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 showed a revenue increase of 15.37% year-on-year, reaching 4.075 billion yuan, while the net profit slightly decreased by 1.28% to 120 million yuan [4]. - The decline in magnesium prices has pressured the company's Q2 performance, with the average price of magnesium ingots dropping to 19,924 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14.5% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the magnesium industry, with a complete industrial chain from raw material extraction to deep processing, which is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of magnesium alloy applications in various sectors [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 40.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.37%, and a net profit of 1.20 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.28% [4]. - The average gross profit margin for magnesium alloy products was 14.31%, showing a minor decline of 0.11 percentage points compared to H1 2023 [3]. Market Dynamics - The magnesium industry is experiencing a downturn due to oversupply, leading to a significant drop in profitability, with the average gross profit per ton in the magnesium industry falling from 2,393 yuan in H1 2023 to 505 yuan in H1 2024 [3][6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects expected to come online, which will enhance its market position and production volume [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the company's net profit will grow to 3.40 billion yuan in 2024, 6.69 billion yuan in 2025, and 9.05 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.67, and 0.91 yuan respectively [7][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing applications of magnesium alloys in automotive and construction sectors, driven by trends towards lightweight materials [3][6].