宝洁：业绩稳健，市占率有望持续提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - Strong demand for men's grooming, health care, and beauty products is noted, with net sales for Q4 2024 at $20.5 billion, flat year-over-year. Organic sales and volume both grew by 2% when excluding foreign exchange, acquisitions, and divestitures [3][4]. - The company is optimistic about long-term growth potential in the Greater China region despite an 8% decline in organic revenue in Q4 2024, primarily due to challenges faced by the SK-II brand and market weakness [3][4]. - The company expects total sales growth of 2% to 4% and organic growth of 3% to 5% for FY2025, with diluted EPS projected to increase by 10% to 12% [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q4 2024 net sales were $20.5 billion, with total sales volume up 1% and prices up 1%, offset by a 2% negative impact from foreign exchange. Organic revenue changes by segment were: beauty +3%, men's grooming +7%, health care +4%, fabric and home care +2%, and baby, feminine, and family care -1% [3][4]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 49.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-over-year, driven by productivity savings and lower commodity costs. However, the SG&A expense ratio increased to 30.7%, up 2.6 percentage points due to marketing reinvestment and wage inflation [3][4]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has made strategic adjustments in its Greater China operations, focusing on more profitable segments, which may impact short-term sales. However, it remains optimistic about long-term growth as market conditions improve [3][4]. Financial Projections - For FY2025, the company projects total revenue of $86.3 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.7%. Net profit is expected to reach $15.997 billion, reflecting a 6.8% increase [5][6].