投资策略研究：美国大选形势以及出口链韧性分析

Group 1: Political Landscape and Election Dynamics - Trump's presidency marked a significant shift in U.S. politics, emphasizing nationalism and protectionism, which contributed to his electoral success[1] - Harris's political stance appears to align closely with Biden's, particularly in areas such as taxation, immigration, and clean energy[1] - As of July 2024, Harris's support in key swing states is uncertain, with polls indicating she lags behind Trump in four out of five swing states[1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Trade Relations - Trump's tax reform in 2017 reduced corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%, aimed at boosting investment and economic growth[1] - Despite efforts to reduce trade deficits, the U.S. trade deficit expanded during Trump's term, indicating limited success in reversing trade imbalances[1] - Since 2018, China's export dependence on the U.S. has decreased, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from 19.22% in 2018 to 14.81% in 2023[2] Group 3: Export Trends and Market Shifts - The share of Chinese electronics in U.S. imports fell from 41.5% in 2018 to 29.0% in 2022, as competitors like Vietnam and Japan gained market share[2] - In the automotive sector, despite trade tensions, China's share of U.S. imports for transportation equipment rose from 6.7% in 2018 to 8.1% in 2022[2] - The resilience of certain export sectors, such as machinery and automotive, is attributed to their focus on markets outside the U.S. and establishing overseas production facilities[4]