2024年7月贸易数据点评：进、出口走势逆转，贸易顺差收敛

Trade Overview - In the first seven months of 2024, China's total goods trade amounted to $34,950.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports growing by 4% and imports by 2.8%[4] - The trade surplus expanded to $518 billion, up from $480.11 billion in the same period of 2023[4] - In July 2024, the trade surplus narrowed to $84.65 billion, despite being higher than the $79.396 billion surplus in July 2023[4] Export and Import Trends - July exports increased by 7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed by 1.6 percentage points compared to June[4] - Imports in July rebounded with a growth of 7.2%, reversing a decline of 2.3% in June[4] - High-tech product exports saw a significant increase of 11.5% in July, up 5.2 percentage points from the previous month[11] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for the US in July was 46.8, indicating contraction, while the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 45.6, also reflecting a downturn[4] - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9 in July, marking a decline for four consecutive months, indicating weakening economic recovery[4] Trade Partner Performance - Exports to ASEAN, the EU, the US, and South Korea all showed recovery in the first seven months of 2024, with ASEAN being China's largest trading partner at $552.09 billion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year[7] - Imports from Japan decreased, while imports from other major trading partners increased, with imports from South Korea rising by 13.4%[7] Future Outlook - The export growth rate is expected to gradually decline to around 3% for the year due to high base effects and weakening overseas demand[4] - Domestic policies aimed at boosting demand are anticipated to support import growth, although base effects may lead to a gradual decline in import growth rates[4]