国泰航空：1H24低于预期，盈利周期有望持续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Cathay Pacific Airways is maintained as "Buy" with a target price adjusted to HKD 11.15 [3][8]. Core Views - The report indicates that while the 1H24 performance was below expectations, the company is still viewed positively in terms of its profit cycle, with expectations for improved profitability and return on equity (ROE) [3][4]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.613 billion for 1H24, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, while revenue increased by 13.8% to HKD 46.904 billion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, Cathay Pacific's capacity recovery was steady, with ASK/RPK increasing by 42.7%/34.9%, returning to 65%/64% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [4]. - The passenger load factor was 82.4%, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, while unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 11.0% [4]. - The company recorded passenger revenue of HKD 33.0 billion, a 19.7% increase, and cargo revenue of HKD 12.61 billion, a 1.4% increase [4][5]. Cost Management - Operating costs for 1H24 were HKD 43.7 billion, up 18.2% year-on-year, but unit costs showed a decline due to improved aircraft utilization [5]. - The company achieved an operating profit of HKD 5.91 billion, a decrease of 11.0% year-on-year [5]. Dividend Policy - Cathay Pacific announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.20 per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 38%, indicating a positive outlook on profitability [6]. Future Projections - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be HKD 7.736 billion, HKD 7.929 billion, and HKD 8.112 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of HKD 1.20, HKD 1.23, and HKD 1.26 [7][11]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at HKD 105.888 billion, HKD 115.790 billion, and HKD 122.367 billion, reflecting growth rates of 12.07%, 9.35%, and 5.68% respectively [7][11].