宏观策略报告：全球市场波动加剧，后续何去何从？

Group 1: Reasons for Market Volatility - The global market volatility is attributed to two main factors: concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession and unexpected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, leading to significant fluctuations in stock markets and currencies [2][9]. - U.S. economic indicators show a slowdown, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping to 46.8 in July, below expectations, and inflation rates decreasing, which enhances the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6][9]. - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to 0.25%, exceeding market expectations, which caused the yen to appreciate significantly and led to increased volatility in Japanese and global markets [9][10]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Stock Market - The domestic stock market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the second half of the year, supported by policy stimulus expectations despite a slow economic recovery and low market sentiment [11]. - The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar are expected to provide additional support for domestic monetary policy, which may positively influence the stock market [11][12]. - However, ongoing risks from overseas markets could continue to negatively impact domestic stock performance [11]. Group 3: Impact on Renminbi Exchange Rate - The Renminbi has appreciated significantly, with the offshore exchange rate rising from a low of 7.31 to a high of 7.11, reflecting a 2.7% increase, driven by domestic policy support and external factors such as a weakening dollar [12]. - The Renminbi is likely to maintain a relatively strong position in the second half of the year due to enhanced domestic policy stimulus and a favorable economic outlook compared to overseas conditions [12]. Group 4: Impact on Commodity Markets - Global commodity markets are under pressure due to declining demand signals from the U.S. manufacturing sector, with concerns over a potential recession leading to price declines in metals and energy commodities [13]. - Precious metals are expected to perform relatively well in the medium term, supported by a global shift towards lower interest rates, although short-term liquidity risks should be monitored [13]. - Domestic demand-driven commodities may see better performance compared to those reliant on external demand, although overall price recovery is expected to be limited [13].